NCAA Elite 8 2019 Predictions

Kentucky Advances 61.5% against Auburn

Kentucky Average Margin of Victory: 2.8

Duke Advances 65% againstMichigan State

Texas Tech Average Margin of Victory: 3.1

Texas Tech Advances 56.6% against Gonaga

Texas Tech Average Margin of Victory: 1.2

Virginia Advances 70.4% against Purdue

Virginia Average Margin of Victory: 5.1

Vacation Story: The Overview

Two years ago I was lucky enough to be able to go on a cruise with basically my entire immediate family.  My parents had been planning to take a trip themselves, but decided to extend an invitation to myself, my then newly married wife, and my sister and her fiancee.  It was a blast.  When my sister finally tied the knot this past year, my folks again asked us all to take a cruise with them that started in San Diego and traveled along the Pacific side of Central America, cut through the Panama Canal and then ended up in Ft. Lauderdale.  I had a few reservations about how our now nearly 2 year old daughter would fare, but the opportunity was of course too good to pass up.

I'm going to break up talking about each place we visited a bit, so I can get all the details.  But I thought a TL;DR overview and a bit about the cruise ship we were on was due first.  Overall this was an amazing trip.  We visited Cabo, Mayan ruins, beaches, wonderful cities and verdant forests.  The excursions we booked all through Holland America, and it was a good experience.  Some long bus rides awaited us, but overall each place was worth the travel time.

For this cruise we were on Holland America Line.  This was the same line we traveled with the last time, and it was fantastic then as it was this trip.  We were aboard the MS Volendam, one of company's older boats proudly now serving her 20th year.  This did mean there were a few things we could wish for, like more than 2 outlets in the room, and a smart TV instead of the small one with a DVD player that it had.  These though are minor complaints, because the stewards had power strips available and a large collections of movies to choose from. The rest of the ship was still awesome, with an elegant formal dining room and a large Lido pool area and buffet line. No part of the ship felt in disrepair or in real need of modernization, apart from the outlets.

The staff aboard the ship was wonderful.  By the end of Day 2 aboard almost everyone knew our daughter.  It would be tough to miss a toddler who runs around screaming in delight at riding an elevator or ascending a large stair case over and over again.  But the staff went out of their way to say hello to her and in many cases help keep an eye on her as she took off for the next bit of excitement.  And this was not always an easy environment to be friendly, as we went through time change after time change and some choppy seas during our trip.  I cannot say enough good things about the staff on the ship. 

If you love to eat, a cruise is one of the best places to do it. The Holland America line provides some of the best tasting food I've had on our trips.  This year was even better because there was an America's Test Kitchen chef aboard to do demonstrations for some good recipes to try at home as well. The Lido featured good buffet options each day, as well as fresh sushi.  Breakfasts there included Eggs Benedict with a great Hollandaise, and Congee as well as made to order omelettes and waffles. Also present was the Dive In grill, a burger and dog grill near the pool that offered some of the best fries I've had with their Dive In sauce. I easily had a plate of sushi and some fries for lunch half the trip. For dinners we made our way to the main Dining room each night. The chefs prepare exquisite options, and I definitely found myself ordering something extra almost every night. 

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There was only one thing that really detracted from our enjoyment on the ship. This would be the Club HAL staff and Holland America's age policy thereof. Club HAL is the children's area of the ship. Holland America essentially offers a babysitting service for children 3-17, as a service for guests. It also can be much more entertaining to play and climb than attend a lecture on the history of rum for someone that can barely sit through an episode of the Wiggles. Our daughter though is just a bit shy of 2 years old though. After learning that there were only four children aboard though, we hoped that the staff would work with us a bit and maybe allow her to play in the room if my wife or I were present, and would leave if any of the other children were to come to use the facility.  I hate asking for special treatment, but with so few children aboard the facility was going to go unused. We were told no, it was against Holland America policy. 

Disappointed, we left but did lodge a criticism via the onboard feedback option on the ships online feedback form.  The cruise director contacted us shortly thereafter to say they were going to contact the corporate offices and see if there could be something arranged to let our daughter visit the Club HAL facilities.  However, that was the last we heard form the cruise director.  The next thing we got was from the Service Desk staff asking if we wanted to waive the daily Hotel Fee for Blake.  This fee is essentially the tip given to the crew, and we felt like this was not the way to address our concerns.  The staff was wonderful at every step, and deserved this fee.  This was the wrong way to handle the situation by the Cruise Director, and seems a bit cowardly instead of coming and speaking to us directly. 

Neil Gaiman's Norse Mythology: Book Review

Vacation gave me plenty of time to catch up on some books that had been sitting in my to read pile.  The first on the list was Neil Gaiman's Norse Mythology.  Gaiman retells some of the important stories in Norse legend in an engaging and modern way. Covered are some tales anyone who's had a small interest in mythology would have heard, like how the world was created and Ragnorak, the end of this world. Most of the characters we encounter time and again everyone is familiar with, like Odin, Thor and Loki. But Gaiman also gives some people are unlikely to have heard, like how poetry entered into existence; or how the Gods had sown the seeds of their own destruction with Loki's children. A personal favorite was the tale of Thor needing to retrieve his Hammer from a giant that had stolen it. Thor and Loki must pretend to be Freya and her hand maiden to get back to the Giants realm and seek vengance.  As a person that was interested in but not deep into this collection provides a good stepping off point for more examination of Norse Mythology.

NBA Power Rankings March 27th 2019

Back to a regular schedule, we've got NBA power rankings today.  And there is a bit of controversy I think with the Jazz being ranked so highly.  But, its tough to deny that since the start of the year the Jazz have a 65% win rate, and have just absolutely crushed the bad teams and competitive against the good.  I'm not certain they have the full set of weapons to dethrone the Warriors (who did post a 112 Ortg in their sole meeting this calendar year), but they;re going to be a tough matchup against just about anyone.  The Celtics meanwhile have continued to play poorly post Trade Deadline, going 3-5 in their last 8. 

Team	Full Season Rank	Since Deadline Rank	Difference
Milwaukee	1	2	-1
Utah	2	1	1
Golden State	3	8	-5
Toronto	4	5	-1
Denver	5	12	-7
Portland	6	6	0
Boston	7	18	-11
Houston	8	4	4
Oklahoma City	9	14	-5
Indiana	10	9	1
Philadelphia	11	10	1
San Antonio	12	15	-3
LA Clippers	13	13	0
Orlando	14	3	11
Sacramento	15	16	-1
Miami	16	11	5
Detroit	17	7	10
New Orleans	18	27	-9
Minnesota	19	23	-4
Charlotte	20	21	-1
Brooklyn	21	19	2
Dallas	22	26	-4
LA Lakers	23	28	-5
Memphis	24	17	7
Washington	25	22	3
Atlanta	26	20	6
Chicago	27	24	3
Phoenix	28	29	-1
Cleveland	29	25	4
New York	30	30	0

NCAA Sweet 16 2019 Predictions

Below I've got the programs predictions for each of the Sweet 16 matchups this year along with each team's overall season stats comparisons.  There are some real nail biters with the Volunteers edging the Boilermakers, and the Wolverines just getting past Texas Tech.  Both underdogs though could very easily pull an upset, especially the Red Raiders who get to the line well and are very good at shooting the ball.  I don't think Virginia will coast as much as the program has them doing, but they are the superior team.  And this might be the point the Ducks just run out of gas. 

Gonzaga 68% chance to advance over Florida State

Gonzaga Average margin of victory 4.2

Tennessee 54.3% chance to advance over Purdue

Tennessee Average margin of victory .76

Michigan 53.9% chance to advance over Texas Tech

Michigan margin of victory .74

Virginia 91.8% chance to advance over Oregon

Virginia Average margin of victory 12

Michigan State 74.2% chance to advance over LSU

Michigan State Average margin of victory 5.5

North Carolina 69.5% chance to advance over Auburn

North Carolina Average margin of Victory 4.3

Duke 73.8% chance to advance over Virginia Tech

Duke Average margin of victory 5.6

Kentucky 66.7% chance to advance against Houston

Kentucky Average margin of victory 4

 

NBA Predictions March 25th to March 31st 2019

Finally getting back to the regular schedule now, I now have the NBA picks for this week as the playoffs loom. The week starts of with the post all star program favorite Magic beating the Sixers.  I'm not super confident here, but the Magic have been very effective in limiting turnovers and possessions to make themselves a team in the playoff hunt.  Other program favorite Utah is slated to go 3-0, against what should be a fairly lax schedule of the Suns, Cavs and Wizards.

NCAA Tournament Biggest Upsets so far

Been out on vacation for what feels like forever, of which Ill probably have a few posts about to highlight some of the great things I was able to see and experience.  The only downside has been feeling way behind on the Tournament this year.  I got my predictions all done, but couldn't get a post together about it. 

The program often have a handful of simulations where the 16 seed advances to the Elite 8 in a region or even the final 4.  But its just not all that likely.  I tend to need to weigh these ad pick some spots where I think teams can get a jump, or that the simulations are too close and that might lead to an upset.  Here though are the ones the program missed so far that likely shouldn't have happened.

UC Irvine over K State

The biggest upset of the tournament so far, the Wildcats were predicted to be a roughly 18 point favorite by the program and had a 91.8% chance to this game.  UC Irvine is not a bad team by any stretch, being one of the better defensive teams forcing opponents to just a 43.7% EFG rate.  This ability to force opponents into bad shots exacerbated the offensive issues for the Wildcats, as they were also missing Dean Wade.  That suffocating Anteaters defense had K State shooting just 29% from 3, as Barry Brown and Xavier Sneed combined to go just 2-10 from 3 point range.  The Anteaters also were able to effectively get to the foul line, getting a free throw on 38% of their field goal attempts, compared to just 25% for K State.

Liberty over Mississippi State

The Bulldogs were one of the best offensive teams in the league this year, ranking 15th in Kenpom's Offensive efficiency and posted a 54.6% Effective Field Goal rate.  This and a pretty solid defense had lead them to be one of the better SEC teams this season.  The program had them as a 9 point favorite, with an 81% chance to win this game  But it didnt matter against the Flames, who were one of the best 3 point teams in the nation this year.  It carried over through this game, where they hit 48% of their threes, and limited themselves to just 10 turnovers.

Oregon over Wisconsin

This game makes it because of the score differential. The program had the Badgers as a roughly 4 point favorite, but had them winning roughly 68% of the time.  So an upset was not unconsionable.  But the way it happened in the second half is what caused this to mae the list. Wisconsin shot only 30% in the second half, while Oregon hit five of six threes and 70% of their shots overall. 

NBA Picks and where I've been

Been on vacation and I thought I would have more access but I was wrong.  So here are the picks to cover while I'm Gone.

2019-03-13	Miami	41.42	Detroit	58.58	-3.1
2019-03-13	Washington	50.16	Orlando	49.84	0.3
2019-03-13	Atlanta	39.26	Memphis	60.74	-3.6
2019-03-13	Oklahoma City	62.52	Brooklyn	37.48	4.5
2019-03-13	Houston	55.33	Golden State	44.67	1.9
2019-03-13	Phoenix	22.25	Utah	77.75	-10.5
2019-03-14	Indiana	62.08	Oklahoma City	37.92	4.1
2019-03-14	Orlando	75.78	Cleveland	24.22	9.4
2019-03-14	Boston	55.33	Sacramento	44.67	1.9
2019-03-14	Toronto	79.74	LA Lakers	20.26	11.7
2019-03-14	Utah	72.89	Minnesota	27.11	8.5
2019-03-14	Denver	82.73	Dallas	17.27	12.7
2019-03-15	Detroit	81.31	LA Lakers	18.69	12.2
2019-03-15	Philadelphia	71.09	Sacramento	28.91	7.9
2019-03-15	Washington	50.97	Charlotte	49.03	0.3
2019-03-15	New Orleans	49.98	Portland	50.02	-0.3
2019-03-15	Houston	84.98	Phoenix	15.02	14.3
2019-03-15	Miami	31.77	Milwaukee	68.23	-6.5
2019-03-15	San Antonio	64.75	New York	35.25	5.3
2019-03-15	LA Clippers	64.29	Chicago	35.71	5.2
2019-03-16	Boston	73.88	Atlanta	26.12	8.7
2019-03-16	New Orleans	69.91	Phoenix	30.09	7.4
2019-03-16	Washington	50.29	Memphis	49.71	-0.3
2019-03-16	Dallas	49.62	Cleveland	50.38	0.0
2019-03-16	San Antonio	33.27	Portland	66.73	-6.0
2019-03-16	Oklahoma City	55.36	Golden State	44.64	1.7
2019-03-16	Denver	54.25	Indiana	45.75	1.2
2019-03-16	Utah	74.38	Brooklyn	25.62	9.3
2019-03-17	New York	45.97	LA Lakers	54.03	-1.5
2019-03-17	Miami	70.45	Charlotte	29.55	7.9
2019-03-17	Milwaukee	72	Philadelphia	28	8.2
2019-03-17	Detroit	54.39	Toronto	45.61	1.3
2019-03-17	Orlando	71.05	Atlanta	28.95	7.8
2019-03-17	Sacramento	66.07	Chicago	33.93	5.7
2019-03-17	Houston	67.39	Minnesota	32.61	6.0
2019-03-17	LA Clippers	54.28	Brooklyn	45.72	1.7
2019-03-18	Cleveland	24.45	Detroit	75.55	-9.4
2019-03-18	Washington	34.35	Utah	65.65	-5.7
2019-03-18	Boston	50.98	Denver	49.02	0.4
2019-03-18	Toronto	84.7	New York	15.3	14.0
2019-03-18	San Antonio	42.92	Golden State	57.08	-2.5
2019-03-18	Oklahoma City	58.36	Miami	41.64	3.1
2019-03-18	Dallas	38.23	New Orleans	61.77	-4.3
2019-03-18	Phoenix	40.68	Chicago	59.32	-3.5
2019-03-18	Portland	57.25	Indiana	42.75	2.8
2019-03-19	Charlotte	43.97	Philadelphia	56.03	-2.3
2019-03-19	Atlanta	24.44	Houston	75.56	-9.7
2019-03-19	Milwaukee	84.87	LA Lakers	15.13	13.9
2019-03-19	Minnesota	42.49	Golden State	57.51	-2.8
2019-03-19	Sacramento	44.69	Brooklyn	55.31	-1.7
2019-03-19	LA Clippers	49.21	Indiana	50.79	-0.2
2019-03-20	Cleveland	28.28	Milwaukee	71.72	-7.9
2019-03-20	Orlando	76.61	New Orleans	23.39	10.3
2019-03-20	Philadelphia	65.17	Boston	34.83	5.4
2019-03-20	New York	23.46	Utah	76.54	-9.9
2019-03-20	Chicago	52.45	Washington	47.55	0.7
2019-03-20	Memphis	40.93	Houston	59.07	-3.3
2019-03-20	San Antonio	58.57	Miami	41.43	2.9
2019-03-20	Oklahoma City	48.48	Toronto	51.52	-0.4
2019-03-20	Portland	83.79	Dallas	16.21	13.5