LA vs ATL: This was a game that the Rams absolutely lost with tunrovers. The Falcons had 9 long drives in this game, and picked up 37% of their potential yards. The Rams only had 6, and they picked up 67% of their total potential yards. But giving away two posessions in special teams errors and gifting the Falcons 10 points was the difference. The other advantage the Falcons had was an ability to stop TOdd Gurley. Gurley had 2 big plays, a run of 33 and 26. But on his remaing 12 touches he ran for less than 4 yards per carry, and had three of those carries go for 0 or negative yardage. In the passing game, Gurley also was stymied with 10 targets to just 4 catches and 4 yards.
JAX vs BUF: A defensive slug fest to say the least.Both teams crossed the 50 yard line just twice after starting on their side of the field, and both teams opted for short passes to attack the defenses. Jacksonville attempted one long pass on the day ( a 20 yard catch by Dede Westbrook) and the Bills had just 4 deep shots, none being completed. The Bills special teams did their job, allowing just 2 punt returns on the day ( 8 punts) for 2 yards, while the Jags allowed 5 for 21 yards.
NO vs CAR: The story of this game ended up being the Panthers inability to finish drives. On five of their first 6 drives, the Panthers drove into the maroon zone, and walked out with just 12 points. The Saints on the other hand, on their first 6 drives found the Maroon Zone 3 times, but came away with 17 points, and had a long TD pass where Ted Ginn ran past everyone. Neither team was really able t run the ball, with Jonathon Stewart accumulating almost everything on one 29 yard run. But they both found success going deep, combining to accumulate 38% of their total yards on the day with deep passes (the Panthers picking up 27% and the Saints a whopping 50%!!)
KC vs TEN: Oh boy. This is the moment when the schadenfreude kicks in. I don't know if Chiefs fans can recover from this one. With 4:49 left in the 3rd Quarter, the Chiefs had a 98.9% chance to win. The lead by 11, and had one of the best rookie running backs in the league. That was when Adoree Jackson muffed a punt and gave KC the ball at the Titans 28 yard line. The Chiefs gained no yards on that drive, and Butker missed the field goal. Hunt got 4 carries total in the second half, despite the Titans using up over 8 minutes on their first drive, KC used up fewer than 5 on their next two drives and enabled the Titans to score twice more to take the lead. The Chiefs gained just 22% of their potential yards in the second half, while giving up 94% of the Titans potential yards on defense. Just a complete collapse and failure to use any clock with a big lead.
Showing posts with label Game Thoughts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Game Thoughts. Show all posts
Monday, January 8, 2018
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Can Colorado get to the Playoff?
With the first release of the College Football Playoff Rankings last night, Colorado finds itself for the first time truly in the national conversation for power teams in well over a decade. Colorado ranked 15th, the second PAC-12 team behind Washington at 5, and just behind former Big 12 opponent Oklahoma. The question now in Buff nation is can they somehow move up the 11 necessary spots to make it into those final weeks of college football? It will take some help from some of the teams ahead of them, but Colorado does present a good case for making the playoff if things break their way.
First and foremost, CU cannot lose again. They must win their last 4 regular season conference games, as well as winning the PAC-12 title outright. Luckily, the program currently gives CU about a 60% chance to win out in the regular season (89% vs UCLA, 92% @ Arizona, 80% against Wazzu, 90% aginst Utah). They also do get lucky in that the PAC-12 title game should likely give them a chance to beat one of the teams ranked ahead of them, the Washington Huskies. This game is much closer, with the program giving CU just a 50% chance t win on a neutral field currently. However, in a toss up style game CU winning would assuredly move them ahead of the Huskies. It should be reiterated, that any slip up in these 5 games would knock CU out. Also, if Wazzu is able to win the Apple Cup here in a few weeks, that would likely hurt CU's chances because Washington would fall before CU could play them, and Wazzu is ranked too far back to help give te committee a possible Top 4 tam on CU's resume.
Now we get to the spots where CU needs help from everyone ahead of them:
1 Alabama: The Crimson Tide have a pair of very tough games remaining, against a suddenly resurgent LSU and Auburn. The program though gives them and 80% chance to win this weekend, and an 85% chance to knock off Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Both teams are ahead of CU, so its actually better if Alabama wins out. They also will likely face another team ahead of the Buffs in Florida in the SEC championship game, which would give the Gators a second loss and putting them within striking distance of Colorado at that point.
2 Clemson:Clemson has one game that they should be concerned with against Pitt, but they have a 78% chance of walking away at home with a win against the Panthers. Buffs fans should likely also be rooting for the Tigers to win out, since it would be so tough for CU to catch them. That would also lock Louisville out of the ACC Championship, boosting Colorado's chances again. In that ACC title game, CU has to hope that either Virginia Tech or North Carolina (Program believes currently VT is the nod, with it going there 57% of the time) gets rocked to keep them from catching up to CU.
3 Michigan: If the Buffs miss the playoffs they will be wondering what could have been had Sefo not been injured in this game that just got away. The Wolverines are also favored to get to their conference title game, but CU has to hope they get past Ohio State (65% chance), because that gives the Buckeyes a second loss, eliminating them from the playoffs as well. In the title game, CU is again a Big Blue backer, either handing Wisconsin their third loss, or Nebraska a likely third loss as well.
4 Texas A&M: The Aggies are the surprise factor here, because they're likely only going to have 1 loss at the end of the year unless Ole Miss or LSU can upset them. CU really could use the Aggies to drop one of those games (preferably the Ole Miss game to keep handing out losses to teams ahead of them). At the very worst, CU has to have the Aggies not win the SEC West and get in ahead of Alabama.
5 Washington: Even at a single loss, CU would jump Washington if they win the Pac-12 Championship head to head. The Huskies need to win out though to keep their status, and the Pac-12's prestige up.
6 Ohio State: As mentioned above, a loss to Michigan ends their hopes with 2 losses. They'll likely beat the Huskers this weekend to give them a second loss, and stay in the 6th spot until playing Michigan. Go Blue
7 Louisville: Along with A&M, the Cardinals could be the biggest spoiler for CU's jump into the playoff. They are almost guaranteed to end up as a 1 loss team, and have run over all of their opponents. Lamar Jackson is the Heisman winner in all likelihood, so it would be tough for the committee to lave them out with just a single loss. They probably won't lose though against a lackluster end of season schedule, unless a truly slumping Houston can catch fire (only a 16% chance of that happening).
8 Wisconsin: The Badgers will likely end up with three losses, and despite some impressive wins, CU should be able to leap them with their own impressive slat of games and wins against at least 3 top 25 teams.
9 Auburn: Much like Wiscy, the Tigers will have 3 losses at least by the end of the season, and wont have appeared in a conference title game.
10 Nebraska: The Huskers could drop the game this weekend against Ohio State, and even if they made the Big Ten title game, would be the under dog there. That would hand them 4 losses, and a spot outside of the playoffs.
11 Florida: The Gators find themselves with a pair of tough road games to close out the season, traveling to make up a game with LSU and then ending in Tallahassee Florida against Florida State. They have less than a 40% chance to win both games, which still likely puts them into the SEC title game, where Alabama would be heavily favored. That's at least a pair of losses to match the Buffs.
12 Penn State: The Nittany Lions should be able to win out with a very disappointing Michigan State to end the season as their toughest remaining opponent. However, they already have a pair of losses, and wont be able to catch the Wolverines if they win out to reach the title game.
13 LSU: A resurgent Tigers have likely played themselves out of the playoffs with that tough loss to Auburn this season that cost Les Miles his job. Again, the pair of losses and the fact that they are currently just a couple spots ahead of CU leans towards CU jumping them at the end if CU wins the title.
14 Oklahoma: The Sooners like LSU played poorly early on and its cost them a shot at a title. Even if they were to win out, CU will likely jump them because of Houston's collapse, and the Big 12 eating itself. THey also face a still dangerous Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State to close out the season.
The biggest threats then to CU are Louisville and Texas A&M. Almost everyone else is likely to lose a game between now and conference championship weekend, and those that won't will likely drop to one of the top 3 teams in the playoff that weeknd. Louisville and Texas A&M do not have clear paths to their title games, but both have looked nearly flawless this season sans one loss, and are likely to end that way. Would a potential CU Pac-12 title be enough to put them in with a loss more? I think so, because the committee really does lean heavily on Conference Titles to differentiate teams in the end.
Regardless of the Buffs getting into the Playoff, Coach Mac has done a wonderful job getting the ship righted in Boulder, turning a derelict program into a true contender that is recruiting well and looks to have the pieces to compete for the next several years. The Rise is Real in Boulder, and it might be reaching stratospheric heights this year if a few things break right for CU.
First and foremost, CU cannot lose again. They must win their last 4 regular season conference games, as well as winning the PAC-12 title outright. Luckily, the program currently gives CU about a 60% chance to win out in the regular season (89% vs UCLA, 92% @ Arizona, 80% against Wazzu, 90% aginst Utah). They also do get lucky in that the PAC-12 title game should likely give them a chance to beat one of the teams ranked ahead of them, the Washington Huskies. This game is much closer, with the program giving CU just a 50% chance t win on a neutral field currently. However, in a toss up style game CU winning would assuredly move them ahead of the Huskies. It should be reiterated, that any slip up in these 5 games would knock CU out. Also, if Wazzu is able to win the Apple Cup here in a few weeks, that would likely hurt CU's chances because Washington would fall before CU could play them, and Wazzu is ranked too far back to help give te committee a possible Top 4 tam on CU's resume.
Now we get to the spots where CU needs help from everyone ahead of them:
1 Alabama: The Crimson Tide have a pair of very tough games remaining, against a suddenly resurgent LSU and Auburn. The program though gives them and 80% chance to win this weekend, and an 85% chance to knock off Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Both teams are ahead of CU, so its actually better if Alabama wins out. They also will likely face another team ahead of the Buffs in Florida in the SEC championship game, which would give the Gators a second loss and putting them within striking distance of Colorado at that point.
2 Clemson:Clemson has one game that they should be concerned with against Pitt, but they have a 78% chance of walking away at home with a win against the Panthers. Buffs fans should likely also be rooting for the Tigers to win out, since it would be so tough for CU to catch them. That would also lock Louisville out of the ACC Championship, boosting Colorado's chances again. In that ACC title game, CU has to hope that either Virginia Tech or North Carolina (Program believes currently VT is the nod, with it going there 57% of the time) gets rocked to keep them from catching up to CU.
3 Michigan: If the Buffs miss the playoffs they will be wondering what could have been had Sefo not been injured in this game that just got away. The Wolverines are also favored to get to their conference title game, but CU has to hope they get past Ohio State (65% chance), because that gives the Buckeyes a second loss, eliminating them from the playoffs as well. In the title game, CU is again a Big Blue backer, either handing Wisconsin their third loss, or Nebraska a likely third loss as well.
4 Texas A&M: The Aggies are the surprise factor here, because they're likely only going to have 1 loss at the end of the year unless Ole Miss or LSU can upset them. CU really could use the Aggies to drop one of those games (preferably the Ole Miss game to keep handing out losses to teams ahead of them). At the very worst, CU has to have the Aggies not win the SEC West and get in ahead of Alabama.
5 Washington: Even at a single loss, CU would jump Washington if they win the Pac-12 Championship head to head. The Huskies need to win out though to keep their status, and the Pac-12's prestige up.
6 Ohio State: As mentioned above, a loss to Michigan ends their hopes with 2 losses. They'll likely beat the Huskers this weekend to give them a second loss, and stay in the 6th spot until playing Michigan. Go Blue
7 Louisville: Along with A&M, the Cardinals could be the biggest spoiler for CU's jump into the playoff. They are almost guaranteed to end up as a 1 loss team, and have run over all of their opponents. Lamar Jackson is the Heisman winner in all likelihood, so it would be tough for the committee to lave them out with just a single loss. They probably won't lose though against a lackluster end of season schedule, unless a truly slumping Houston can catch fire (only a 16% chance of that happening).
8 Wisconsin: The Badgers will likely end up with three losses, and despite some impressive wins, CU should be able to leap them with their own impressive slat of games and wins against at least 3 top 25 teams.
9 Auburn: Much like Wiscy, the Tigers will have 3 losses at least by the end of the season, and wont have appeared in a conference title game.
10 Nebraska: The Huskers could drop the game this weekend against Ohio State, and even if they made the Big Ten title game, would be the under dog there. That would hand them 4 losses, and a spot outside of the playoffs.
11 Florida: The Gators find themselves with a pair of tough road games to close out the season, traveling to make up a game with LSU and then ending in Tallahassee Florida against Florida State. They have less than a 40% chance to win both games, which still likely puts them into the SEC title game, where Alabama would be heavily favored. That's at least a pair of losses to match the Buffs.
12 Penn State: The Nittany Lions should be able to win out with a very disappointing Michigan State to end the season as their toughest remaining opponent. However, they already have a pair of losses, and wont be able to catch the Wolverines if they win out to reach the title game.
13 LSU: A resurgent Tigers have likely played themselves out of the playoffs with that tough loss to Auburn this season that cost Les Miles his job. Again, the pair of losses and the fact that they are currently just a couple spots ahead of CU leans towards CU jumping them at the end if CU wins the title.
14 Oklahoma: The Sooners like LSU played poorly early on and its cost them a shot at a title. Even if they were to win out, CU will likely jump them because of Houston's collapse, and the Big 12 eating itself. THey also face a still dangerous Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State to close out the season.
The biggest threats then to CU are Louisville and Texas A&M. Almost everyone else is likely to lose a game between now and conference championship weekend, and those that won't will likely drop to one of the top 3 teams in the playoff that weeknd. Louisville and Texas A&M do not have clear paths to their title games, but both have looked nearly flawless this season sans one loss, and are likely to end that way. Would a potential CU Pac-12 title be enough to put them in with a loss more? I think so, because the committee really does lean heavily on Conference Titles to differentiate teams in the end.
Regardless of the Buffs getting into the Playoff, Coach Mac has done a wonderful job getting the ship righted in Boulder, turning a derelict program into a true contender that is recruiting well and looks to have the pieces to compete for the next several years. The Rise is Real in Boulder, and it might be reaching stratospheric heights this year if a few things break right for CU.
Monday, March 30, 2015
What happened in the Elite 8?
An exciting basketball weekend, with an overtime game between two of the premiere coaches, a powerhouse team grapple to the death with its opponent, and an on fire shooting performance from a Junior. All in all, it was a great time to watch. It was also abysmally frustrating, as the program went 0-4 picking these games, and most of them werent close. I always like to delve into the game specifics when that happens, to see why the program would have liked a team more and what caused the game to go so differently. So, here are my observations for each game.
Arizona vs Wisconsin: Both teams really played up to their offensive capacity here. The game flowed more at Arizona's seasonl pace, but the Badgers took full advantage posting an effective field goal percentage about 13% higher than normal. The driver of that was Sam Dekker going on fire from beyond the arc in the second half. As the Badgers came out of the tunnel, Dekker had gone just 2-5 in the first half, missing his only three point attempt. From then on though, he went 5-5 from beyond the arc, with a ridiculous .959 true shooting for the game. Dekker basically won this game for Wisconsin, since he also got to the line on basically two thirds of his shot attempts.
Michigan State vs Louisville: This game I wasn't too surprised by. Louisville had played a long tough game against NC State in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State is a formidable team. This game though came down to a 7 minute stretch in the second half. The Spartans played good defense, and Louisville went ice cold. At about 14 minutes left, Blackshear hit three free throws. Until 6 and half minutes, the Cardinals would make one field goal. They missed 10 shots during that period. Their three point lead turned into a four point defeceit.
Kentucky vs Notre Dame: This game should have been a much bigger win for the Wildcats. The Irish, despite being the best shooting team in the country had just a% effective field goal rate, and had three starters shoot at 35% or less. Kentucky got to the line about 15% more of the time on their shots, outrebounded the Irish, and hit just as many threes on six fewer attempts. Trey Lyles though had an awful game. He more than doubled his turnover rate for the season, and was the low man for shooting amongst the starters. That's the kind of perfromance from a player thats getting touches on almost 39% of the Wildcats' posessions that will make what should have been a clear victory come down to a nailbiter.
Duke vs Gonzaga: This game is one that the program had pegged as a clear blowout for the Zags, and they instead got taken to the cleaners. Both teams shot well, keeping up with their season rankings as top 5 shooting teams. The Zags downfall was an inability to get to the line. They don't normally rely on the charity stripe, but if you can only draw nine fouls in the modern game, you arent going to win very often. The Zags also couldn't force a turnover to save their tournament lives. Duke turned it over just twice, while forcing thirteen of them. Even with those failures, the Zags had a chance, with the game being an open layup away from being tied with five minutes left.
Arizona vs Wisconsin: Both teams really played up to their offensive capacity here. The game flowed more at Arizona's seasonl pace, but the Badgers took full advantage posting an effective field goal percentage about 13% higher than normal. The driver of that was Sam Dekker going on fire from beyond the arc in the second half. As the Badgers came out of the tunnel, Dekker had gone just 2-5 in the first half, missing his only three point attempt. From then on though, he went 5-5 from beyond the arc, with a ridiculous .959 true shooting for the game. Dekker basically won this game for Wisconsin, since he also got to the line on basically two thirds of his shot attempts.
Michigan State vs Louisville: This game I wasn't too surprised by. Louisville had played a long tough game against NC State in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State is a formidable team. This game though came down to a 7 minute stretch in the second half. The Spartans played good defense, and Louisville went ice cold. At about 14 minutes left, Blackshear hit three free throws. Until 6 and half minutes, the Cardinals would make one field goal. They missed 10 shots during that period. Their three point lead turned into a four point defeceit.
Kentucky vs Notre Dame: This game should have been a much bigger win for the Wildcats. The Irish, despite being the best shooting team in the country had just a% effective field goal rate, and had three starters shoot at 35% or less. Kentucky got to the line about 15% more of the time on their shots, outrebounded the Irish, and hit just as many threes on six fewer attempts. Trey Lyles though had an awful game. He more than doubled his turnover rate for the season, and was the low man for shooting amongst the starters. That's the kind of perfromance from a player thats getting touches on almost 39% of the Wildcats' posessions that will make what should have been a clear victory come down to a nailbiter.
Duke vs Gonzaga: This game is one that the program had pegged as a clear blowout for the Zags, and they instead got taken to the cleaners. Both teams shot well, keeping up with their season rankings as top 5 shooting teams. The Zags downfall was an inability to get to the line. They don't normally rely on the charity stripe, but if you can only draw nine fouls in the modern game, you arent going to win very often. The Zags also couldn't force a turnover to save their tournament lives. Duke turned it over just twice, while forcing thirteen of them. Even with those failures, the Zags had a chance, with the game being an open layup away from being tied with five minutes left.
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