The Chiefs ranked 3rd overall in offensive DVOA this year, thanks to a 2nd ranked passing DVOA of 43.7%. This is largely thanks to the magic of Mahomes, who had himself another excellent season in his second year starting. Mahomes didn't do quite as well as he had last season while dealing with injuries, but he still completed 65% of his passes and threw only 5 Ints. Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman combined to provide a big play element for the Chiefs, averaging 14.8 and 20.1 yards per catch respectively. The team was highly efficient as well, averaging 6.2 plays per drive and 37.2 yards. This efficiency was largely driven by the effectiveness of Travis Kelce, who lead the league in Effective Yards for a TE, and he would have ranked 7th for WRs as well. That will be tested against a 49ers defense that allowed just 552 yards all season against opposing TEs. It will also be key to see if the 49ers can keep up the immense pass rush they've been able to generate, with a 9.1% adjusted sack rate.
The Niners offense is truly predicated on being able to run the ball effectively. Despite ranking just 13th in rushing DVOA, the Niners ranked 2nd in yards and 1st in rushing TDs. The three headed rushing attack of Mosert, COleman and Brieda has given teams toruble all season. This rushing attack has also helped to make sure not to put too much stress on Garoppolo as the 49ers ranked 29th in passing attempts. Jimmy though responded when called upon, completing almost 70% of his passes for 7..4 Net Yards per attempt, best fro 3rd in the league. The Chiefs defense has not held up against the run over the season, as they allowed 4.82 Adjusted line yards per rush. However, the Chiefs held down Derrick Henry in the title game, allowing just 69 yards on the ground to the bruising back. The pass defense has also been very good all year, ranking 8th in yards surrendered and generating turnovers on almost 14% of opponent's drives.
Overall, this game is a toss up. The Chief's offense poses huge matchup problems all across the field. Can Richard Sherman and Jimmy Ward matchup with Hill, Kelce and Hardman? Can Patrick Mahomes stay upright as he has this season against the ferocious 49ers front? The Niners rushing attack will pressure the Chiefs as well. If the Niners front seven can force a few stops, I think the Niners can walk away the winners. If not, I think the Chiefs will be able to force Jimmy G into some bad turnovers trying to press the attack.
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