A pretty solid week for the program, going about 52% against the spread, while also picking at 74% straight up. This is one of the last weeks for any preseason prediction working its way into the program, so we're starting to see things for how they are this year versus what we thought would happen. Interestingly, the Thursday night ACC game should be a good test for it, since Georgia Tech is a slight home favorite to it. One of the biggest games of the week is the Vols-Gators game, where the program is very certain the Volunteers will walk out with a W.
Monday, September 19, 2016
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
NCAA Week 3 Win Percentages
So, I did not notice until today that last week I posted the chance for teams to cover the spread instead of their win percentages. I'll try to remember to re-run those numbers and edit the last post to add it. Here thoug are this week;s win percentages.
Games of note this week should include Mizzou getting a visit from Georgia, and whether or not the Bulldogs can get back on track and if Mizzou;s offense is halfway decent. Oklahoma State-Pitt should be an excellent game, and I think the Pokes come out really firing after last week's debacle with Central Michigan. The best game though will definitley be the Buckeyes visiting the Sooners, and if OU can get their playoff hopes back on track.
Also of course will be CU-Michigan, following a week of great twitter sparring and CU posting the best depth chart ever.
Games of note this week should include Mizzou getting a visit from Georgia, and whether or not the Bulldogs can get back on track and if Mizzou;s offense is halfway decent. Oklahoma State-Pitt should be an excellent game, and I think the Pokes come out really firing after last week's debacle with Central Michigan. The best game though will definitley be the Buckeyes visiting the Sooners, and if OU can get their playoff hopes back on track.
Also of course will be CU-Michigan, following a week of great twitter sparring and CU posting the best depth chart ever.
Monday, September 12, 2016
College Football Power Rankings very rough cut
So, I normally don;t publish my rankings for about 4 weeks. There is just too much volatility and too little data. But I feel like there's no real harm in having some fun and looking at where its ranked everyone so far. The program liked USC before the season, but I'm not exactly certain as to why its been so high up on them this season. I guess it discounts a lot of the Bama game, since they're still a 15 point favorite in a rematch.
| Alabama |
| Southern California |
| Florida State |
| Tennessee |
| UCLA |
| Baylor |
| Louisiana State |
| Ohio State |
| Louisville |
| Clemson |
| Washington |
| Auburn |
| Florida |
| Georgia Tech |
| Oklahoma |
| Michigan |
| Miami(FL) |
| Georgia |
| Oklahoma State |
| Mississippi State |
| Texas |
| Texas A&M |
| Nebraska |
| Oregon |
| Mississippi |
| Boston College |
| Wisconsin |
| Western Kentucky |
| Missouri |
| Notre Dame |
| Brigham Young |
| South Carolina |
| Arizona State |
| North Carolina |
| Marshall |
| Pittsburgh |
| Virginia Tech |
| West Virginia |
| Boise State |
| Vanderbilt |
| Duke |
| Texas Christian |
| Arkansas |
| Stanford |
| Colorado |
| Arizona |
| Michigan State |
| Utah |
| Houston |
| Cincinnati |
| Wake Forest |
| North Carolina State |
| Iowa |
| Minnesota |
| Maryland |
| Temple |
| Utah State |
| Central Florida |
| Penn State |
| Texas Tech |
| Georgia Southern |
| Washington State |
| East Carolina |
| Syracuse |
| Appalachian State |
| Kentucky |
| Rutgers |
| Northwestern |
| Toledo |
| Oregon State |
| San Diego State |
| South Florida |
| Indiana |
| Memphis |
| Central Michigan |
| California |
| Northern Illinois |
| Ohio |
| Middle Tennessee State |
| Bowling Green State |
| Kansas State |
| Kansas |
| Navy |
| Illinois |
| Arkansas State |
| Rice |
| Colorado State |
| Army |
| Southern Mississippi |
| Western Michigan |
| Virginia |
| Texas State |
| Purdue |
| Air Force |
| San Jose State |
| Tulsa |
| Nevada |
| New Mexico |
| Fresno State |
| Tulane |
| Connecticut |
| Louisiana Tech |
| Old Dominion |
| South Alabama |
| Troy |
| Ball State |
| Southern Methodist |
| Nevada-Las Vegas |
| Florida Atlantic |
| Wyoming |
| Kent State |
| Charlotte |
| Hawaii |
| Texas-San Antonio |
| North Texas |
| Texas-El Paso |
| Iowa State |
| Massachusetts |
| Louisiana-Lafayette |
| Eastern Michigan |
| Akron |
| Idaho |
| Florida International |
| Louisiana-Monroe |
| New Mexico State |
| Buffalo |
| Miami(OH) |
| Georgia State |
Thursday, September 8, 2016
College Football Week 2
We've got one week down in the college football world, and the program is moving along nicely. It hit about 79% correctly in the first week, which, considering that several FBS teams lost to FCS schools and others blew big leads, is not too shabby.
Week 2 should feature a bump again, as we see no ranked teams squaring off, although I will definitely be watching to see if Tennessee bounces back after the program put them into the top 10.
Week 2 should feature a bump again, as we see no ranked teams squaring off, although I will definitely be watching to see if Tennessee bounces back after the program put them into the top 10.
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
College Football Week 1 Predictions
So, with a wedding upcoming and some severe laptop issues I've been very bad about getting up posts and getting data sorted. In the meantime though, I was able to get my weekly predictions done this week. I've got every game, with the average Home margin, and each team's win percentage odds listed.
I should have hopefully for this next week some drive data graphically represented.
I should have hopefully for this next week some drive data graphically represented.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Los Links July 27th
Bacteria 'Wind Farms' to power your gadgets
THis all starts getting into some scary futures of bio-engineering, but its also very cool
Why did the Concorde Fail
Largely bad airline management, but that's a little simplistic.
New Brain Map,
The brain is still an amazingly unexplored area of science, that we're finally getting powerful enough tools to be able to see
Exo-Planet Habitability
Very excited that we could have a lot more habitable neighbors that could possibly be one day explored and settled
THis all starts getting into some scary futures of bio-engineering, but its also very cool
Why did the Concorde Fail
Largely bad airline management, but that's a little simplistic.
New Brain Map,
The brain is still an amazingly unexplored area of science, that we're finally getting powerful enough tools to be able to see
Exo-Planet Habitability
Very excited that we could have a lot more habitable neighbors that could possibly be one day explored and settled
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
College Football Projected Top 25
So I've returned from the Rockie Mountains from a backpacking trip (which I'll be posting pictures from soon in another post) to finish up my pre season NCAAF ratings.
These ratings are obviously very preliminary, just to give me an idea typically of futures bets and projecting conference winners. The formula has an r^2 value of .687 to a team's final rankings, which I think its pretty fantastic this far out from the end of the season. There are a few surprises every year, and this year is no different.
The first thing that really stands out is Clemson sitting outside of the Top 10. I believe that they will end up in the Playoff, but the program is concerned about the team without Watson helming the offense, and the senior class was much further behind some of their contemporary schools in terms of recruiting rankings. The program also is not a big believer in Stanford. The only knock it seems to have is the returning experience, so I'm expecting them to be much better off than the rankings give them.
Of teams that I think its mysteriously high on, FSU has to top the list. The 'Noles though have consistently been a good recruitier, and they return quite a bit of experience. Im not super comfortable having them number 1, but theres a good chance they can knock off Clemson in the ACC. As Bill Connely pointed out in his preview, Oregon will be much better if they can find some stable QB.
These ratings are obviously very preliminary, just to give me an idea typically of futures bets and projecting conference winners. The formula has an r^2 value of .687 to a team's final rankings, which I think its pretty fantastic this far out from the end of the season. There are a few surprises every year, and this year is no different.
1
|
Florida State
|
2
|
Louisiana State
|
3
|
Alabama
|
4
|
Georgia
|
5
|
Southern California
|
6
|
Baylor
|
7
|
UCLA
|
8
|
Tennessee
|
9
|
Oregon
|
10
|
Oklahoma
|
11
|
Miami(FL)
|
12
|
Auburn
|
13
|
Clemson
|
14
|
Ohio State
|
15
|
Oklahoma State
|
16
|
Washington
|
17
|
Mississippi
|
18
|
Louisville
|
19
|
Brigham Young
|
20
|
Stanford
|
21
|
Michigan
|
22
|
Mississippi State
|
23
|
Texas A&M
|
24
|
Pittsburgh
|
25
|
Arizona
|
The first thing that really stands out is Clemson sitting outside of the Top 10. I believe that they will end up in the Playoff, but the program is concerned about the team without Watson helming the offense, and the senior class was much further behind some of their contemporary schools in terms of recruiting rankings. The program also is not a big believer in Stanford. The only knock it seems to have is the returning experience, so I'm expecting them to be much better off than the rankings give them.
Of teams that I think its mysteriously high on, FSU has to top the list. The 'Noles though have consistently been a good recruitier, and they return quite a bit of experience. Im not super comfortable having them number 1, but theres a good chance they can knock off Clemson in the ACC. As Bill Connely pointed out in his preview, Oregon will be much better if they can find some stable QB.
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