Super Bowl 51 Pick

On the eve of the Super Bowl, we have a great match up upon us.  The Falcons came up a hard road from the year prior, when they went just 8-8 after a very fast start.  Their offense was abysmal, ranking 23rd by DVOA according to Footballoutsiders.  This year, its the best in the league.  And the tape supports that, as the Falcons scored 30 or more points in eleven of their regular season games,and lit up the Seahawks and Packers for a combined 80 points in the playoffs.  This will press the Pats defense, who ranks just 20th when covering top wideouts, and 20th when trying cover running backs.  We could potentially see Freeman and Coleman have some big games.  The Pats will also have to be weary after allowing very poor numbers over the deep middle, a spot Julio Jones loves to attack.  The offense has had to be good though, since the defense has been just average at best for Atlanta.  The rushing totals against Atlanta have been rough, ranking 29th in DVOA.  They've allowed 4.5 yards per carry, and fifteen touchdowns on the ground.  This weakness might not be one that the Pats can exploit so readily, since they have had such struggles in their own rushing attack.  They ranked 17th in rushing DVOA, and in the playoffs have averaged under three yards per carry.  This has been against two very good defense, but its still disconcerting to see New England become so one dimensional. Tom Brady has been excellent this year, and the offense was able to exploit the zone scheme Pittsburgh ran last week.  Atlanta runs a lot more match up man, but third wideouts have really been able to test them due to the lack of depth in the secondary.  And much like the Pats, the Falcons have allowed running back to do quite well in the passing game.

This game is going to be a shootout.  Neither team is truly great at pressuring the passer, which is really the only way to slow down these offenses.  The program likes the Falcons by 2 points, giving them a 52% to win the game.  Its going to be a close one, and likely will come down to which defense can get one more stop than the other.  34-32 Atlanta is my call.