NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Matchups

I'll go ahead and edit this post later, but with the Pelicans and Warriors kicking off tomorrow, I wanted to get them done.  And since every other series looks like it could go a little bit further, theres no reason not to start looking at these two teams.

-EDIT: Updated with all of the remaining series, including the fact that the Rockets won yesterday.  Sorry I didnt get this up then, but I misread the schedule and thought they were playing the late night game.

Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans:

Pelicans win Series 53.2% of the time in 7 games 

 

The program did not do a great job with these teas in the first round.  The Warriors looked much more energized then they had the waning weeks of the season, and the Spurs had no 2nd half answers without Leonard in the line up.  The Pelicans flat out dominated their series, posting the best TS rate of anyone in the first round, coming in at 61%.  Interestingly, the Warriors were the much better team on the boards, snagging 80% of their defensive rebounds, which could become a key in this series.  We should also see Steph back.  However, the program can't forget that the Warriors have been hobbled, and noone else should either.  The Pelicans have run a lot of tempo in these playoffs, Neither team has been very good at stopping opposing players in the paint, ranking 25th and 26th.  The Pelicans though all season have reliably gone to Anthony Davis there to score a lot of points.   It wouldn't surpise me if this series ended up going 7 games, but I'm a little more sure on the Warriors with Steph than the Pelicans.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets:

Rockets win Series 71.2% of the time in 5 games 

This was probably going to be my highlight matchup of these playoffs but with Ricky Rubio getting his hamstring pulled in the finale against the Thunder, this series might end up much more shallow.  The Jazz have been one of the best defensive teams all season, posting the second best defensive rating this season at 101.6.  The Rockets had been the leagues second most efficient offense, 112.1 rating to go with a 59% TS rate. This model does include the fact that the Rockets already won game 1, but the Jazz's defense has been so good and their offense fairly efficient so the program still sees some hope for them.

Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers:

Raptors win Series 82.5% of the time in 5 games 

The Cavs were able to finally get past the Pacers in a taught 7 game series, in which if just a few shots fell against them the columns would already be flowing about Lebron James' next stop would be.  James though was super man in this series, with a 65.5% TS rate, 15% rebound rate, and a league leading 26.8 PIE for players that are starters in the playoffs.  The rest of the starters have been basically non-existent, especially Kevin Love and JR Smith.  Against a Raptors squad that has the second best offensive efficiency so far in the playoffs and a middle ground defensive efficiency, this wont cut it.  But Lebron is still amazing, so he might be able to pull it off.  He's been ridden hard already though, and with Fred Van Fleet over his injury, the Raptors second unit is going to apply a lot of pressure.

Boston Celtics vs New Philadelphia 76ers:

76ers win Series 81.4% of the time in 5 games 

The Sixers are looking like the class of the East currently, dispatching the Heat in impressive fashion (3 of 4 wins by double digit points) and with the best Net Rating of teams in the east through the opening round.  They last played a week ago, so there could be some rust.  But the Celtics starters have now played the most minutes of any starting unit besides the now defeated Pacers and Jazz (who have an extra game done now).  Al Horford so far has carried the load for the Celtics, posting a 15.4 PIE and a 66.9% TS rate, but his defensive efficiency has been pretty bad, at 107.3).  He'll have his hands full with the Sixers helping to guard Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.  JJ Reddick has also been hot so far, hitting 56% of his threes so far.  The Sixers play with a lot of pace as well, so this series could be short if the Celtics have to keep their starters in.

Denver Broncos Drafting since 2013: Has it been that bad?

This week, there has been a lot of focus on Denver's track record in the NFL draft under John Elway.  Rich Hribar posted a tweet story detailing how every team has stacked up so far since 2013, and Denver is one of only three teams without a pro bowler during that time, and has one of the lowest rates of starts from their drafted players.  One of the most damning charts though was a relationship between number of picls and their collective Approximate Value ( a metric by Pro Football Reference).  Denver had was the furthest down and to the left of team's in the league.  his meant Denver hasn't had a ton of picks, and they've scored low on that AV chart.

The question that MHR and several twitter followers posed then is when does this mkae a difference for Elway and his accountability?  This is a good question to ask. But it first requires a delve into how some of these teams that have done better have done it, and why Denver might have fallen behind.

The AV chart from Rich Hribar @LordReebs on twitter

The first step is to examine the Average Value metric.  A series of Blog Posts breaks down AV fully, but its enough to say that it gives a score based on points per drive and the league average thereof to each player based on their contribution.  This metric is a good baseline, but its always going to suffer a little bit because it favors teams that are just better rounded, since the base score is based on how many points the team scores (or on defense, allows). Joe Thomas of the Browns for example, had just a  few seasons scoring into the highest elite category, despite being one of the best Left Tackles in the modern era. 


One of the reasons why Denver has been so shallow on this area has been because from 2013 until after the 2015 season, Denver was fairly veteran heavy.  2013 the team had just 4 rookies make an appearance, and two of them were RBs who were blocked out by Knowshon Moreno and the previously drafted Ronnie Hillman.   The top end of the roster was just filled with guys either entering their prime or just nearing the end.  For instance, Bradley Roby has accrued just 10 career AV points, but he had been trapped behind the best CB duo in the league for 4 years of his career.  Looking at a team like the Jags, who come out n the best section of this chart, they've had their picks make 60% of their possible starts.  Denver has had them start at just 37% of their game appearances. It has also helped Denver that some of their contributing young players were found outside the draft.  CJ Anderson, Shaq Barrett, and Todd Davis were all undrafted players that have contributed a lot over the course of their careers so far.

One of the big spots it seems that has also derailed Denver's draft potential is injuries.  Look at Ty Sambraillo, a tackle that got the starting nod after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2015.  After 3 games however, he suffered a torn Labrium and was done for the year.  This injury causes all kinds of setbacks to development, especially with the NFL's limited practice times.  He then lost several more games in 2016 to an elbow injury, and never looked quite right.  Other notables in this category were Shane Ray, Montee Ball, Devontae Booker, Jeff Heuerman, Cody Latimer all missed more than three games with various injuries in more than one season.

Another contributing factor has been the number of top 50 picks during that time.  These are are the picks you would expect to be establishing themselves early on the roster, and playing a big role.  For example, the Rams have had 8 players in that section to Denver's 5.  These 8 players have accounted for 55.8% of the Rams AV over this period.  Its been even worse for Denver, since they've had no pick earlier than 20.  Something the Rams have had 6 of.

This isnt to say everything has been sunny for Denver's picks.  They've overspent some draft capital on players like Cody Latimer that while regarded well at the time of the draft, were guys that I really cant see why they were well thought of.  Denver has also whiffed on basically every offensive lineman theyve taken besides Matt Paradis.  Sambraillo, Schofield, Vinston Painter and Max Garcia have all failed to be high end offensive linemen for the team.  The biggest failure though might have been the miss on Paxton Lynch.  If you look at every team in the good zone, they have a QB that has contributed quite a bit of AV.  Paxton was a project when he came in, but he's failed to develop in his two years so far to a point where you might have faith he could turn it around.

Overall I think the problem hasnt been so much on Denver's evaluation of players, but rather of development and playing time.  Denver needs to continue to solidify the offensive line, and get some depth to the defensive front seven. If they can do that, the next several years will likely see that career AV go up, as the team moves back to a younger team with players getting more play time.

NBA Playoffs 1st Round so far

Everyone has completed the first leg of the playoffs, and now teams travel to their next set of games at the lower seeds home.  The Jazz, Heat and Pacers were all successful in breaking home court advantage early, while the Blazers completely gave it away to the Pelicans.

Toronto vs Washington: The Raptors have cruised through their first two games, posting a 119.4 Ortg and posting the best TS% rate so far in the playoffs.  The Wizards outside of John Wall have generated almost no free throws, and Bradley Beal so far has gone 11-28 in the series, with just 3 attempts.

Boston vs Milwaukee:  The Bucks have kept games close, posting good true shooting numbers.  But last game they hit just 41$ of their free throws.  Thats been the difference so far, along with with Celtics cleaning up on the offensive glass (22.7% to the Bucks 16%)

Philadelphia vs Miami: We had a vintage Dwayne Wade game in game 2, going 1/17 and posting a 71.7% TS.  James Johnson also chipped in going 7/7 with a pair of threes and 5 assists.  The Sixers really need Embiid back soon if the Heat can continue to play solid defense on Ben Simmons and Marco Belinelli.

Cleveland vs Indiana: The Pacers have been the better looking team so far against the Cavs, forcing them into turnovers and a negative net rating.  If Victor Oladipo doesn't go 2-8 in game 2 from the three point line, the Cavs could have found themselves down in an 0-2 hole.  Lebron James has been impressive throughout though, dragging the Cavs with a 46 point performance last night.

Houston vs Minnesota: The Rockets are looking a little shaky in their first round match up, giving a bit of pause as to whether their brand of basketball does translate to the post season.  However Chris Paul was able to efficiently pick up where James Harden fell off this year, and the Rockets were able to force the Wolves into going just 5-18 from beyond 3.

Golden State vs San Antonio: Despite the program's glowing reviews for the SPurs in this seres, they've been unable to finish either game away from home.The Warriors D has held the SPurs to 50.8 and 51.4% TS performances, while Klay Thompson has been a killer in the series so far. 

Portland vs New Orleans: The Pelicans have smothered the Blazers, allowing a TS rate of just 49.6.  The Pelicans arent fouling either, allowing under 10% of field goals to generate a free throw.  As the series moves back to New Orleans, this looks like it might be a sweep.

Oklahoma City vs Utah: The Jazz had been the best second half team this season, but allowed the Thunder to get to a 115 Ortg, something that hadn't allowed in months.  They got back to basics though in game 2, and Ricky Rubio lead the way with Derrick Favors on offense, as Rubio had 9 assist to just 1 turnover and went 5/8 from beyond the arc.  The Jazz should have a decent chance moving forward.

Denver Broncos 2017 Rookie class predictions: Look back

With the NFL draft next week, its a good time to look back on whether or not I hit any of my predictions for this rookie class (Spoiler: I did not hit very often here)

1. Garret Bolles: Correct Bolles did start every game.  While I wasnt always enthusiastic about his play, mostly stemming from an overabundance of penalties.  His technique was never flawless, but I think Bolles has a lot more upside and should be penciled in to start every game this year.  
2. Demarcus Waker:Miss Walker ended up with just a single sack and 7 tackles.  He was vastly misused early in the season to provide OLB depth due to Shane Ray and Shaq Barret's injuries before the season, and continued depth issues during it.  However, he sparked when he was allowed to return to his end position, and should provide Denver with an excellent rotation now with Shelby Harris and Derrick Wolfe.
3. Carlos Henderson:Miss Henderson missed the whole season following a thumb injury, but did not look great in his rookie training camp.  He also ended getting arrested for marijuana possession in Louisiana this off season, so my high hopes might not have been well founded.
4. Brendan Langley: Miss  Langley saw relatively little action all season, playing on 290 total snaps.  He took some strides but had a forgettable performance against Miami.  He'll continue to fight for a roster spot this season.
5. Jake Butt: Correct  Butt did spend the whole season on IR, and hopefully will look like a true steal this season
6. Isaiah Mckenzie: Miss  Isaiah Mckenzie was probably the player that had Denver fans most excited about in pre season, and then the entire fan base was ready to ship him off by Week 14.  He ended the year with 13 targets and just 4 catches for 29 yards.  However, he was able to win the kick returning duties, where he fumbled 6 times and set the offense way back.  He also had a miserable moment against Washington late in the year running out the clock at the half when Denver had a chance to score some points.  I'd like Mckenzie to return to just kickoff returning, and making more of an impact as a gadget player than anything really on field.
7. De'Angelo Henderson: Miss  I thought Henderson would get more opportunities this year, but CJ stayed mostly healthy and ith Jamaal Charles also taking some reps early on he just never cracked the lineup.  This year though with Charles and CJ now gone, I think Henderson can add some extreme explosive ability to compliment Devontae Booker.  
8. Chad Kelly:Miss  I was right that Denver kept 3 QBs all season long, but I thought Kelly would appear at some point.  Kelly is an interesting option this year though to try and win a roster spot, especially if Denver eschews taking a first round QB next week.

Overall I under performed a bit here, especially with how high I was on Carlos Henderson.  If he can get back and focused I think he can still be a key target as a third receiver though.  I'm actually fairly excited for this class, because I think they were underutilized this past season thanks to some mismanagement by the coaches and injuries.  They have a chance to really show a big impact in year two though.

Restaurant Review: Chick in Max

Always striving to try some of the new places here in town, this last weekend we decided to head over to Chick In Max, a new chain restaurant that was founded right here in Wichita.  The menu is pretty simple, putting forward a variety of fried chicken dishes as well as smoked chickens.  They have a number of sauces that you can try as well, with a pretty standard selection of sides for fried chicken: Fries, Greens, White Beans, Mac and Cheese and Cole Slaw.

Its a counter and get called up style of restaurant, where you can judge the menu, order and then receive a little buzzer for when your food is ready.  From order to prepared we waited maybe about 7 minutes on a not busy evening, which isn't too bad since the founder stated everything is fresh prepared.  I got the Deluxe Wings, which is two full chicken wings, not tiny drummettes. You have the choice of a regular or spicy coating for your fried items, which I of course took the spicy.  The Wings came with a choice of one side, and either cornbread or toast in fairly true chicken joint fashion.  For my sauce I asked what the Max Sauce was, which the cashier described as a creamy ketchup mixture.  I didnt think that sounded right for wings, so I got the Ghost Pepper sauce instead.  My wife ended up ordering the Chicken and Waffles, because she is a sucker for that combination, wile a friend that joined us got the Deluxe wings as well, but with greens and the BBQ sauce.

Those Crispy wings

After getting our food, we all tucked in pretty quickly.  The food came out nice and hot, and the wings, despite being a little greasy, were superb.  They had an excellent crunch on the fry, and the meat inside was super tender.  The flavoring I thought was good, but the spicy mixture was a little on the low scoville unit side for me.  The ghost pepper sauce was as well not very spicy, and it makes me wonder if I ended up with Max Sauce instead.  Whatever it was though, this sauce was supremely tasty.  It had several layers of sweet and well seasoned, and it complimented the wings just perfectly.  My compatriot that ordered the BBQ sauce also really enjoyed his  I am not normally a cornbread super fan, but this was probably the best restaurant corn bread I've had in a long time.  Fluffy and warm, with just a little sweetness and none of the grittiness that too often plagues corn bread.  The french fries were good, but not anything earth shattering.  My friends greens he said were a little too limp, but were fine. My Wife's chicken strips she said were awesome, again moist on the inside and a good crisp on the outside.  The waffle was a pretty standard waffle though.

Overall it was a very enjoyable experience eating here.  It was a bit pricier than your typical "Fast Casual" fare, but was extremely satisfying.  The staff was very friendly, and the restaurant was clean and orderly.  The only minor gripe I had was the sauce containers wee fairly small, and its 30 cents per for any more.   This place though is a prizewinner for us lovers of fried chicken, and will be on the must visit again list to try more of their offerings.

NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Predictions

The Eastern Conference is an intriguing set of playoffs this year.  Are the Cavs good enough for one more run?  Can the Celtics play with so many injuries?  Are the Raptors for real?

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

Celtics win 58% of the time in 6 games

 

The Celtics were in the drivers seat early this season, but a stumble before the All Star break and a wave of injuries put them in 2nd place in the East.  They've been able to hold on so far, but they went 2-4 in their last 6 games and will be without Kyrie Irving for the remainder of the playoffs.  The Bucks a re a good offensive team, but the Celtics should be able to get past with the Bucks inability to sctop other teams from scoring.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers

Cleveland Wins Series 51% of the time in 7 games

 

We get to see here if the Cavs are good enough to flip the switch in playoff time this year.  They've been great since the middle of March, when they've gone 11-3.  

 Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers

76ers win 65% of the time in 6 games

 

This series is likely over a little quicker than this, with just how good the Sixers have been.  They've won 16 straight, despite missing Joel Embiid for a good chunk of time.  They've had the best defensive rating in the league since the 15th, and the third best TS%.  The Heat in the same stretch did rank 4th in Drtg, but just 18th in TS%.

Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards

Toronto Wins 90% of the time in 4 games

The Raptors are the best challenge to the Cavs since Lebron's return to Cleveland.  They're a team that is solid defensively, but is downright electric on offense.  The Wizards have been atrocious the last several weeks, and should pose little threat.

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Predictions

Its NBA Playoffs time.  We had a wild finish in the West, that saw a lot of teams jockey for position all over the place.  Here's how the first round will break down, courtesy of the program's predictions and a few thoughts I have on each series.

Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs:

Spurs win Series 58.8% of the time in 7 games

 

This percentage here is really a testament to how much the Warriors have really struggled in the second half of the season with injuries and the like.  Since the start of March, they've ranked 11th in TS, 22nd in Turnover Percentage, and were dead even in Ortg and Drtg.  They'll be without Steph in this series, which could cause problems as the Spurs have been good down the stretch.   I think the program is overstating a little how close this series will be, but the Warriors are especially banged up, so any further injury could derail them quickly.

Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Rockets win 94% of the time in 4 games

 

The T-Wolves won on the last day of the season to get the honor of facing the red hot Rockets.   This series will likely be over quickly.

 New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers

Portland wins Series 51.8% of the time in 7 games

 

 The Pelicans have one of the leagues best players, but the Blazers have a very good backcourt duo in Lillard and Mccolum.  The Pelicans were better down the stretch, but they face a team in the Blazers that allowed just a .503 eFG%, third best in the league.  If the Blazers offense shows up they can take this series.

OKC Thunder vs Utah Jazz

Jazz win Series 89% in 5 games

The program has loved the Jazz in the second half of the season, and its been pretty unfavorable to the Thunder.  Over the course of the season the Thunder were one of the better defensive teams, but that fell off after the injury to ANdre ROberson.  The Jazz since March have ranked 4th in TS% at 57.7%, and 1st overall in DRtg at just 95.7.

NBA Predictions for games that matter to the Playoffs

The NBA playoffs have come down to the wire this year, as both conferences have some tight matchups for determining the seeding near the bottom.  The West features a play in game between the T-Wolves and Nuggets, While in the East the Wizards can jump all the way to 6 if the cards fall just right.

Away	Home	Prediction	Home Chance to Win
Denver Nuggets	Minnesota Timberwolves	Denver by 1	48.70%
Utah Jazz	Portland Trail Blazers	Utah by 4	38.70%
Memphis Grizzlies	Oklahoma City Thunder	OKC by 14	84.90%
San Antonio Spurs	New Orleans Pelicans	NOP by 1	52.20%
Milwaukee Bucks	Philadelphia 76ers	Phi by 9	74.20%
Washington Wizards	Orlando Magic	Wash by 4	37.90%
Toronto Raptors	Miami Heat	Tor by 4	37.80%

If the Nuggets win, they're locked into the 8 seed, making the playoffs for the first time since 2013.  They've got to travel to Minnesota, and both teams are adept at scoring.  This should be a great watch tonight.  The Jazz need to beat the Blazers to get the 3 seed.  Portland has dropped 4 straight, and had just a 36.7% eFG against Denver on Monday night.  They might be a little ore rested though as the Jazz had to play Golden State last night.  The Spurs and Pelicans could swap spots if New Orleans doesn't win their matchup.  The Pelicans though hold the advantage in shooting, ranking 4th in eFG vs 25th for the Spurs, and that efficiency difference will make an impact tonight. 

In the East, the Sixers hold theirs and the Cavs fate in their hands.  Win against the Bucks, and lock u the 3 seed.  Otherwise t heads to Cleveland.  The Bucks need to lay hard though to stay ahead of Miami, who needs a win against Toronto to pull into the 6th spot.  While the program doesn't like Miami's chances, Toronto has nothing to play for since they're locked into number 1, and they can't have a better record than the Rockets for a Finals match up.If both the Bucks and Heat falter, Washington suddenly is the 6th seed, assuming they get the win the program predicts for them.

A few NBA playoff Scenarios in the West

The NBA's Western Confernce has several tight races for seeding from 3rd ll the way down to the last team in.  Lets take a little look at a few of them.

For 3 Seed:
The team's in the driver's seat right now for the 3rd seed are the Jazz and the Blazers.  IF either one wins both remaining games, they can lock up the the 3 right now.  The Blazer currently hold the spot, but the program likes the odds for the Jazz to be the Warriors and then the Blazers a bit better, giving them a 44% chance to the Blazers 19% chance to win it outright.  Noone else can catch up, thanks to tiebreaks falling all in favor of the Jazz and Blazers, and one of them guaranteed to win one more game.

For the 4 Seed:
Things get a bit trickier here, but the Jazz and Blazers both hold here pretty strongly.  The Spurs however can snag it, if they manage to win both games, the Blazers lose both.  They've got about an 11% chance to have all of that happen.  The Pelicans are alive at a 7% chance, needing the same scenario as the Spurs.  The Thunder can get it done if the Blazers win their games, the Jazz lose theirs, and the Spurs and Pelicans both lose at least once.  t comes out to about a 3% chance.

For the 5 Seed:
The Pelicans just need to win one game against the Spurs or the Clippers to lock up their 5 seed spot.  They've got a 51% chance to beat the Spurs, and a 52% chance to beat the Clippers so they should have it.  If they falter in both games, the Spurs need to beat them for that to happen.  So, give them a 24% chance to nab that spot.  The Thunder have no shot at this spot because they lose tie breaks to both the Pelicans and Spurs.

For 6,7,8:
This mess at the bottom is very close.  The Spurs are in control here, holding a tiebreak over everyone in this 6-9 spot.  Win 1 game and they are in at 6.  If they lose both games (10% chance) , they can drop to the 8th spot with a pair of wins by a couple of teams.  The Thunder are in the most danger, because they lose tiebreaks to both the T Wolves and Nuggets.  If they fall to the Heat tonight, and win against the Griz to end the season, the Nuggets or Wolves hop them by winning out.  The Nuggets need a lot of help to make it.  They have to win both games (program does give them a 27% chance to do so), or hope the Grizzlies and Heat can both beat the Thunder and get one win  (8% chance). 

FFG changes the game: The new Armada FAQ is released

At Adepticon, several folks had to talked to some of the Armada's current design team, and it had gotten out that an FAQ was forthcoming.  With less than a month until Worlds, it was starting to look like we either would get a very minor clarification document or nothing at all.  Instead, in a move that was fairly surprising, they hit several troublesome game elements with a severe Nerf Bat with this latest release.

Flotillas: Two per fleet for Tournament play, and they don't count as ships for being considered"tabled"

Flotillas have basically been an issue since it was announced they were being released.  The game designer's originally saw them as a way to add some utility to fleets and help bring large ships back into the conversation.  But the nature of activation order and deployments they began to become the centerpiece of fleets.  The fact that they added the most point efficient squadron activations didnt hurt either.  A variety of archetypes evolved to become mostly flotillas, like Fish Farm, 1+X, GHY+3. It didnt look good in battle reports or to people who would stop by a game to see half the ships just trailing away from the battle to activate a couple of squadrons. The hard cap I think might have been a little heavy handed, but the game needed to change something about the creeping activation problem and flotillas spam.

It should be noted this change is only for tournaments, so any future campaigns and around the table sort of games can still employ them to the max.  That is a very smart move by FFG.

Relay: The Shuttle must be within activation range to pass along its orders

Relay had always rubbed me the wrong way thematically.  A ship across the board somehow getting to activate squads didn't fit.  It also has lead to a lot of strategies attempting to stay out of engagement.  Changing it so the carrier has to be in range will likely help bring back Boosted Comms as an option, and might help bring a boost to the Centicore title. 

Three widely used Titles get changes

Avenger, Gallant Haven and Yavaris all got changed to limit how effective they are.  Avenger becoming exhaust is a great change, so that no one ship can simply evaporate another on a single activation.  The changes to Gallant Haven and Yavaris effectively end the Rieekan Aces/ GHY+3 archetype that has really been the only one ti survive multiple seasons in this game.  Gallant Haven becomes a minimum of one damage, helping to make sure squads cannot just weather any storm thrown at them before bombing an enemy ship.  It is an interesting affect that we might see more single die flak ships firing, since they'll still be able to ping for damage.  Yavaris with FCT had basically been far too overpowered, and this drops it back into line I think with its intended power level.

Biggs Darklighter cannot pass damage to a Rieekan Zombie Escort

A minor but welcome change.  This tactic basically forced you to just not shoot at any Jan/Biggs ball because the payoff was zero.

Non Nerf Clarifications:

This FAQ was rich with some necessary updates to the game as well.  The Chimera title allows you to recycle a command you had previously discarded, which makes it much more valuable to be able to start the game with maybe Shields to the Max and then come back to it late in the game.  Lots of interactions with how Raddus and ships off the board during the game not being able to receive tokens or other conditions until they enter the game.  It also was clarified that if a Raddus ship that normally cannot activate first is the only ship someone can activate (by some other card effect like Governor Pryce) it can be the first to activate.  Luke Skywalker doesn't proc with Nora, so he cant bypass sheilds then sunder them, and Aspiration can get shields back via outside means (like Projection Experts) even if the zones it beefed up are still full.  Thrawn gets a slight bump in that his dial can now create tokens, instead of just being used to generate a command.

Overall thoughts:

This is quite possibly the biggest game change FAQ we've seen.  Capping flotillas means a whole section of fleets arent possible to run any longer.  A lot of people have felt that the hard cap could mean we are going to get more Flotilla options very soon, because they will be more combat oriented ones.  I dont think I agree.  I think the hard cap would typically mean that any combat capable flotilla now (especially in conjuction wth the Relay nerf) completely replaces the ships we currently have.  FFG is unlikely to do that I think, since there is already a bit of salt over folks having 5 or more of them that they cannot use competitively now.  The loss of the Flotillas though is the gain of the Hammerheads, which were just a tinch to expensive to justify inclusion.  Look for packs of them to potentially go with a Raddus fleet, or possibly to pair with MC30s in a Mon Mothma storm.  

With the titles changes there should be an opening in the meta for the Pelta to at least have a shot at returning now for the rebels.  Cheaper than the AF, and allowing B Wings now to get a speedier activation (via All Fighters Follow Me!) might mean the difference between them getting an attack or not. 

I do think these changes will see a bit more return of Rogue fighters, since both sides lose several carriers and the range to activate fighters becomes a bit limited.  Limiting flotillas to the tournament restriction does hint at least that we may be getting a new campaign this year. 

Star Wars Armada: A sideboard?

This week FFG introduced an interesting new variant to their GoT LCG: The Rookery.  It basically allows players to swap out some cards in their deck after seeing their opponents deck to optimize the match up a bit.  Sideboards are pretty common in a lot of games, letting people build for some edge case matchups that their decks/ lists aren't as suited to handle.  This development got me thinking about how Armada can have a lot of similar interactions in that some lists just suffer badly in matchups.  Running minimal fighters will typically get you pulverized against heavy bomber/Ace lists and running Electronic Counter Measures against a that list brings less utility than Early Warning System would.  At the last Store Championship I attended, I had put Reinforced Blast Doors on expecting a bomber heavy showing with the recent release of the Quasar.  Not a single fighter wing was there, leaving my list in a lurch.   A sideboard would have let me get ECMs on to battle the brawler lists I faced. 

Typically a very tough call

If Armada allowed a sideboard there are a few options for how it could look.  In GoT the player's deck is at least 60 cards, which means the sideboard makes up 20% potentially.  In Magic the Gathering, the Sideboard is at 25%.  That level of change is a bit drastic, changing the complete look of a list by removing whole ships or squadron complements.  A lighter touch would be better here, allowing just a few key changes.  20 points is 5% of the list, and could allow for some key upgrades to come in to make matchups a bit more competitive.  There would still need to be the 400 point cap, so it wouldn't allow a player to circumvent that to get extra points.  There would also likely need to be a one for one swap on cards to keep players from showing a super high bid and then just adding 20 points to their list.  I would also restrict it to Non-Title upgrades, mostly for thematic reasons, that some refits go on but the ships themselves dont change.  

Both players would see the current fleet lists, then secretly pick upgrades to swap.  Then there would be a check for initiative and the game would be played regularly.  A sideboard would add an extra layer of tactical decision making, and would help keep down some matchups that result in just negative play experiences. It would likely dramatically change the game though. Part of list building is deciding how to handle certain threats and what trade offs to make for that. But as the pool of ships and upgrades becomes larger a sideboard makes more sense to potentially allow ships that might have little value in certain matchups to at least be playable. 

WPL 2018 Reading Challenge: The Jackaby Novels Review

I'm a bit behind on writing up my reviews for the Reading Challenge, but I'm at least on pace to finish my books.  For this review, I needed to to a detective or true crime novel.  I really dislike these novels though.  My mother is an avid reader of detective novels, but I just never could get into them.  So I decided to search out a book in a genre I typically like, that of the supernatural.  And lo and behold, Amazon brought me to Jackaby.  I didn't pay too close of attention to it before heading over to the library, and checking out the first three books in the series that they had.  If I had, I would have noticed it was a Teen/ Young Adult series.  Not that this was an issue.  I often find these books to be good quick reads that don't try to be too smart with extra plots and an inexplicable page count. The three novels I read are Jackaby, Beastly Bones, and Ghostly Echoes.  The Dire King was not at the library, but hopefully they will have it soon.

Jackaby is a detective of the paranormal, because he's also a Seer.  He can actually see the true form of many supernatural creatures that hide in our everyday world.  The novels are told from the point of view of Jackaby's assistant, Abigail Rook.  She's newly entered into the job, fresh from Europe and a potentially stodgy life in England.  Each novel reads easily and the stories follow a larger building story arc that should conclude in the 4th book. The culprits in each book are a little obvious for an adult reading it, but the plot moves along and doesnt ever get bogged down so reading isnt tedious.  The first novel introduces the township where Jackaby and Abigail reside, and they work a case that introduces most of the main players.  The second book reads easily and has several very funny bits in it, as well as a bit of drama.  The third book continues the over arching story arc and brings in some other mythological components.  The story takes places in the 1880s, which helps lend to some of the mysticism and creatures that exist before video capture and other recordings.

William Ritter did an exemplary job in creating his characters.  Jackaby is a bit off, but not so much that a reader questions how he existed in the world before Abigail entered his life.  For her part Abigail could have fallen into the trope of Damsel-Not-In-Distress, but rather has several vulnerable moments and an actual plot related reason to not want to only live as a Gentleman's wife back in England.  The two match up quite well, and the other tertiary characters evolve along with them and make rational choices based on what we know about them. 

Overall I enjoyed reading these books, and hope to find the last novel to finish it off.   They are pretty easy reads (I maybe spent about 5 hours between the three novels).  For many folsk the conspirator will be pretty obvious before the characters make the same discovery, but for someone that enjoys a bit of the supernatural this would be an excellent quick read.  I'd also recommend it for its target audience, since it avoids a pitfall too many YA novels seem to hit now of trying to be overly edgy.

NBA Power Rankings April 3rd

A day late with these, but with no games last night and the national title I decided to push this a day. 
We see though a much changed landscape from just a few weeks ago.  Despite still slipping from pre- deadline heights, the Thunder and Celtics both have righted the ship it appears and are trending back upwards.  The Spurs, who on March 13th were smashed by the Rockets n a 16 point loss are 8-2 and pounded the Rockets back for a 17 point win on Sunday.  The Wizards are in the opposite boat, going 2-5 in their last 7.  They rank 20th in true shooting over that period, and for a team that really thrives on offense to carry a middle of th pack defense, that's not good enough. 

In terms of playoff hunt the Pistons in the East have been slightly warmer this past week, but might have done too much damage to themselves before to overtake Miami or Milwaukee.  In the Wets the Nuggets have cooled despite owning the past TS% over the past 7 games, thanks to a 113 DRtg over the same period.  They are a game ack of the Pelicans, who have been so good post deadline, but both have a chance if the T-Wolves continue to struggle.

Team	Rank Pre Deadline	Rank Post Deadline	Difference
Houston Rockets	1	1	0
Toronto Raptors	2	3	-1
Golden State Warriors	3	9	-6
Boston Celtics	4	11	-7
Oklahoma City Thunder	5	15	-10
Minnesota Timberwolves	6	17	-11
Philadelphia 76ers	7	4	3
San Antonio Spurs	8	6	2
Washington Wizards	9	18	-9
Utah Jazz	10	2	8
Indiana Pacers	11	8	3
Denver Nuggets	12	10	2
Portland Trail Blazers	13	5	8
Detroit Pistons	14	19	-5
Los Angeles Clippers	15	14	1
Cleveland Cavaliers	16	16	0
Milwaukee Bucks	17	20	-3
New Orleans Pelicans	18	12	6
Charlotte Hornets	19	22	-3
Miami Heat	20	7	13
Dallas Mavericks	21	21	0
Los Angeles Lakers	22	13	9
New York Knicks	23	27	-4
Memphis Grizzlies	24	29	-5
Brooklyn Nets	25	23	2
Orlando Magic	26	25	1
Atlanta Hawks	27	26	1
Chicago Bulls	28	28	0
Phoenix Suns	29	30	-1
Sacramento Kings	30	24	6

Michigan vs Villanova Preview

We've come to the end of the 2017-2018 NCAA season, and its come down to the Wolverines of Michigan against the Villanova Wildcats.  Nova has held the top spot in the power rankings almost all season from the program, and Michigan had been a team the program didnt like so well until their bracket unfolded in a way that let them generate good matchups and take advantage.  This is a matchup of strenghton strength, as Nova is the most efficient offensive team in the country, and Michigan is the 3rd most efficient defense.  Both teams rank in the top 40 or so in almost every major category, except neither team generates a ton of free throw attempts, generating them on just 29 and 30% of their field goal attempts.  The Wolverines though have suffered at the line, shooting just 66% this season.  Its been better during the tournament, never going below 67%, but that's still valuable points on the floor.  The program sees a close game, that gives mIchigan a decent shot, but in the end Nova has been almost flawless this tournament and has been so good all season.  They have a 72% chance to win, and an average margin of victory of 4.

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Oreb	FTRate	DEFG	D-TOV%	Dreb	D-FTRate	Ortg	Drtg
Michigan	54.25	13.95	25.49	30.64	47.57	19.40	24.72	29.82	115.39	91.09
Villanova	59.32	15.00	29.54	29.81	48.47	18.42	27.27	26.40	127.26	94.60