Wednesday, March 4, 2020

NCAA Conference Predictions: Mid Majors Part 2


NorthEast
Winner: Robert Morris
The Northeast conference is fairly tightly packed.  The Colonials though are one of the better balanced teams in the conference, and they shoot 3s well.  They also generate shots typically on assists, with 64% of their shots made being assisted.  Defensively they force turnovers and don't foul too badly. 

The other balanced team in the conference is Sacred Heart, who is also an excellent rebounding team.  The Red Flash of St. Francis PA are also a tough beat, with a good offensive efficiency but a worse defensive output (allowing 51.3% EFG)

Mountain West
Winner: San Diego State
The Aztecs are one of the best teams in the nation overall, with just a heart breaker at home standing between them and an undefeated regular season.  They shoot well (54.8 EFG%) and don't turn the ball over (16.4%).  Malachi Flynn leads the team, and is one off the nation's top players averaging 18 a game and five assists.

Utah state likely poses the biggest threat, as a scrappy defensive team with some offensive moments.

Missouri Valley
Winner: Northern Iowa
The Panthers shoot lights out.  They make 39% of their 3 point attempts and have a number 7 ranked EFG of 55.7.  They dont generate many free throws, with a rate of just 28%, but they also don't give up points that way either.  A solid defense that doesnt generate many turnovers could lead to some questions though. 

Loyola-Chicago does force a lot of turnovers though, stealing the ball on nearly 12% of opponent possessions.  The Ramblers are also a good shooting team, with their own EFG% of 55.

Colonial
Winner: Hofstra
Hofstra has an efficient offense that shoots threes well.  They dont take a lot of threes (38% of their shots), but when they take them they make them.  The team also is excellent from the charity stripe, making 78% of their freebies.  The defense is a whole other matter though, where the Pride have not fair well all year.  They rank 256th in points allowed this season.

Northeastern  is their foil and likely toughest out.  They lead the conference in forced turnovers, and rebound exceptionally well defensively.

West Coast
Winner: Gonzaga
Another year where the Zags are one of the best in the nation.  They grade out as top in offensive efficiency by KenPom's metrics, with a blistering average possession time of 15 seconds.  They rank third overall in EFG, with a 57.7%, while also generating free throws on 38% of their shot attempts.  The defense is there as well, as they clean up the glass well and allow just a 47.3 EFG%.

BYU forces a lot of turnovers, and are an excellent offense on their own, making 42% of their three point attempts.

Sun Belt
Winner: Texas State
The Bobcats are a poor shooting team.  They rank 231st in EFG, and 250 in 3 point percentage.  On defense though they can be stfiling, surrendering just 64 points per game. 

Georgia State is a bit of a better shooting team, especially when they take threes.  They hit 37% and run at a high tempo, which makes them almsot as likely to win the whole thing. 

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