Thursday, March 5, 2020

NCAA Conference Predictions: Mid Majors Part 3

Into the last set of Mid Majors before their conference tournaments start.

American East
Winner: Vermont
The Catamounts allow just 59 points per game, and have one of the best interior defenses in the nation.  They block 10.5% of shots taken against them, and although they dont generate many turnovers, rank 53rd in defensive efficiency

Stony Brook is the most likely contender to knock off Vermont, but they shoot at sub 50% and while they sport a good defense, its unlikely to be enough.

Atlantic 10
Winner: Dayton
Dayton boasts the top ranked EFG% in the nation, coming in at a hot 59.7%.  They shoot exceptionally well inside, making 63% of their twos and an impressive 36.4% of threes they take as well.  Their defensive efficiency is pretty solid as well, ranking 5th in the nation.

Richmond is the only team the program likes to have a shot, since they don't turn the ball over and they rebound well.  The Spiders face a real uphill climb though, especially since they dont get to the line very often.

Big Sky
Winner: Northern Colorado
The Grizzlies are an interesting team.  They shoot fairly well, but their ability to defend the three is what makes them intriguing.  Opponents only take 23.7% of their shots as threes, and they only make 29% of them.

Eastern Washington currently is on top of the conference, but they have some short comings.  They dont shoot free throws very well, and they allow a few too many trips to the stripe.

Big West
Winner: UC Irvine
UC Irvine sits on top of the Big West.  They post a good defensive efficiency, and aloow just a 46 EFG%.  They do have some trouble turning the ball over, and dont force enough turnovers.

The program likes UC Riverside's defense quite a bit, but I dont think theyve got the horses to knock off the Anteaters.

Metro Atlantic
Winner: Siena
The Saints are a very middle ground team, that has a below average defense.  They are able to force a slow tempo, averaging 67 possessions in their games.  Rider has nearly the same chance as Siena, and they do it by getting to the free throw line, 40.8% of the their shots.  They run a high tempo attack, ranking 51st.

Mid Eastern Atlantic
Winner:Norfolk State
The MEAC is a pretty big dearth of offensive play with the best in conference being Norfolk, that ranked 318th in offensive efficiency.  The Spartans do force turnovers at a good rate, 21.6%, and opponents have only posted a 47.5 EFG%. 

Nipping at their heels are NC Central, who steals the ball 11% of the time and they actually have a decent inside game, shooting 52%.




Mid American
Winner: Akron
The Zips have been a good team all season, playing close with West Virginia and Louisville.  They're a well a balanced team, posting a 51.7 EFG% while also shooting about 44% of their shots from beyond the arc.  They also nail their free throws, hitting 76%.  The defense is efficient, ranking in the top 100 by KenPom.

Kent State is the most likely to topple the Zips, by virtue of being one of he better shooting MAC teams.  Bowling Green could force some things, but their defense is just not good enough.

Conference USA
Winner:Louisiana Tech
Tech is an interesting team, because overall they are a good shooting team, shooting 46.6% overall on the season.  But their free throw shooting is just bad at 66.8%.  Their defense is solid, with a turnover rate of 20.5% and a Defensive rating of 98.8 by KenPom. 

North Texas is the current conference leader, thanks to being one of the bets shooting teams int he nation.  They hit 37.5% of their threes, and they make up about 41% of their attempts.  They give up a lot of free throws though, and teams are hitting just about as many threes as the Mean Green are. 















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