Friday, March 6, 2020

NCAA Conference Tounrament Power 5 Predictions

We've come to the end of the conference tournament winners now with the Power 5 teams.  Next week I'll try to break down some of the teams that might be sneaking into the tournament, and where everyone sits as we approach March Madness.

Atlantic Coast
Winner: Duke
The Blue Devils continue to be one of the most efficient offenses in the country, this year ranking 10th overall by KenPom with an adjusted efficiency of 114.9.  They clean up on the offensive boards, nabbing 34.8% of their misses, and steals are the only way to generate turnovers from them.  The defense is there as well, with a top 10 defensive efficiency.  Duke has also been able to mitigate opponents from taking threes by defensing them quite well; opponents are only making 29.9% of their attempts.

The Louisville Cardinals will etst that 3 point defense, as they make 37.6^ of their shots from beyond the arc.  They dont generate many turnovers, but are quite adept at keeping opponent scoring inside down, allowing a shooting percentage of just 45% from 2. 


Southeastern
Winner: Kentucky
Teams have only shot 39.1% against Kentucky this season, and the defense has held teams to just 66 points per game.  On offense the Wildcats are adept at getting to the line, earning a shot from the strip on 41.5% of their field goals.  They also make nearly 80% of their attempts, and nearly a quarter of their points this season. 


Auburn is one of the most challenging teams in the SEC, thanks in large part to their ability to get to the line as well.  The Tigers dont make many 3s though, ranking 318th in 3 point shooting percentage.  Arkansas is another team that might be being slept on, thanks to a long skid mid season.  But they generate turnovers and defend the 3 very well.

Big 12
Winner: Kansas
The Jayhawks are Kenpom's top ranked team this season.  Thanks largely to a devastating defense, that has the 4th lowest EFG against at 43.7%, and excellent discipline not to foul (23.3% of shots get free throw attempts) this team is poised to be the top ranked in the Tournament come march.  They dont shoot overly well, with a 64.1% free throw percentage, but they;re efficient in their possession, ranking 8th overall in adjusted efficiency. 

The only other Big 12 team to beat KU this season has been Baylor, and the Bears are having an amazing season of their own.  They rank 4th in defensive efficiency, and force turnovers on 22.7% of possessions.

Pac 12
Winner:Arizona
This is the tightest conference the program has.  The Wildcats edge out the Ducks, thanks to a defense that allows  45.3 EFG%, and blocks 10.7% of shots.  They also do not turn the ball over on offense, with a 16.4% marks to rank in the top 10% of the country.  The Oregon Ducks are right behind them, as a team thats shoots blisteringly hot from beyonf the arc at 39%.  Finally, Colorado has a good shot if they can get of their recent skid, as a team that ranks 48th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.

Big 10
Winner: Maryland
The Terrapins have an offense that is ranked 24th in adjusted efficiency, despite positng a very middling 48.2 EFG%.  They do however get to the line at a good 37,4% clip, and dont turn the ball over.  Defensively they also dont give up free throws, and they make inside shots ery difficult.  Teams are only shooting 44.1% inside against them. 

Michigan State is the other defensive power house in the conference, as they allow just 28% from beyond the arc and 43.1% inside it.  This team is also very good at generating assists, posting a nation how rate of 65% of shot mad being assisted. 

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