NBA Power Rankings Feb 19th 2020

With the NBA All Star Break wrapping up, teams prepare to start playing again tomorrow night.  Here are the power rankings which now include the Post Trade Deadline (PD) rankings as well.  This number is going to fluctuate quite a bit this week and next week, since each team will only have a handful of games.  But it starts to give an idea of a team's trajectory over the course of the season and after essentially the midpoint. 

Team	Rank	Last Week	PD Rank	Last Week PD	Post Full Diff
Milwaukee	1	1	8	NA	-7
LA Lakers	2	2	12	NA	-10
Boston	3	3	14	NA	-11
Toronto	4	4	5	NA	-1
LA Clippers	5	5	22	NA	-17
Dallas	6	6	1	NA	5
Utah	7	7	2	NA	5
Houston	8	8	4	NA	4
Denver	9	9	16	NA	-7
Miami	10	10	19	NA	-9
Oklahoma City	11	11	15	NA	-4
Philadelphia	12	12	18	NA	-6
Indiana	13	13	6	NA	7
New Orleans	14	14	7	NA	7
Portland	15	16	20	NA	-5
Phoenix	16	18	25	NA	-9
San Antonio	17	15	21	NA	-4
Orlando	18	19	26	NA	-8
Brooklyn	19	17	3	NA	16
Memphis	20	20	10	NA	10
Sacramento	21	21	13	NA	8
Minnesota	22	22	9	NA	13
Chicago	23	23	24	NA	-1
Detroit	24	24	27	NA	-3
Washington	25	25	17	NA	8
New York	26	26	29	NA	-3
Atlanta	27	27	30	NA	-3
Golden State	28	29	23	NA	5
Charlotte	29	28	11	NA	18
Cleveland	30	30	28	NA	2

Denver Broncos 2019 Rookie Predictions: The follow up

As the NFL now begins to move full steam ahead towards the draft, its a good time to look back at what the Broncos' 2019 rookie class accomplished, and how far off I was in predicting their stats.

Noah Fant
Predicted: 50 Targets, 38 Catches, 489 yards, 5 TDs
Actual:  66 Targets, 40 Catches, 562 Yards, 3 TDs
Middle
I was nearly spot on for catches, but Fant ended up with a lower Catch rate than I had expected. He had been able to get the starting job rather quickly from Jeff Heuerman, and he found a pretty good rapport with Drew Lock to end the season after some real early struggles.

Dalton Risner 
Predicted: 16 Games Started, 4 Penalties, 2 Sacks allowed  
Actual: 16 Games Started, 3 Penalties,   3 Sacks allowed
Hit
The Native never really had issues as a rookie, looking like the best lineman the team had essentially all season.  This play against GB I think encapuslates his season and drive pretty well

Drew Lock 
Predicted: 15 Attempts, 9 Completions, 100 yards
Actual: 156 Attempts, 100 Completions,  1020 yards, 7 TDs 3 Ints
Miss
The plan had been for Lock to sit this season as an understudy of Flacco's.  When he injured his hand in the preseason, this was looking even more likely.  But Joe's miserable play and an injury essentially meant the Broncos season was headed for another losing season.  Denver I think had to get a look at what Lock could do as a starter.  And it looked pretty good, with growth in each game.


Dre'Mont Jones 
Predicted: 15 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 5 Tackles for Loss, 10 QB Hurries
Actual:  14 Tackles, 3.5 Sacks, 3 Tackles for Loss, 1 QB Hurry
Middle
Jones played a larger role than I had expected due to Derek Wolfe's injury, and the poor play of Adam Gotsis.  He provided a solid pass rush, and I think if Bradley Chubb had been healthy he could have had a few more Hurries to his name. 

Justin Hollins
Predicted: 62 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 5 Tackles for Loss, 2 Pass Defensed. 
Actual: 21 Tackles,1 Sacks, 1 Tackle for Loss, 2 Pass Defensed
Miss
A big oof on this one.   Hollins bounced around a bit playing EDGE and ILB this year, but was outperformed at both spots.  He got a lot of work against the Chargers in Von Miller's absence, but was beat out for snaps all season by Jeremiah Attachou and Malik Reed.  We'll see what sort of role he takes on this year.


Juwann Winfree 
Predicted: 25 Targets, 18 Catches, 212 Yards, 1 TD
Actual: 0s
Miss
I had thought Winfree might be able to take some snaps away from the bottom of the receiver roster, but knew he was facing an uphill battle.  He had some nagging injuries, and it looks like the Broncos decided to just redshirt him this season. 

Overall not a great year, as I hit 1, middled 2 and missed on 3. I think the playing time expectations is what got me, especially with Lock and Hollins. 

Book Review: Son of the Black Sword

I've had this book read and ready to be reviewed for several months now, but I just kept missing time to actually sit down and write it out.  Larry Correia's Son of the Black Sword is a fun fantasy novel set in a world of order about to be brought to chaos.  The book is action packed, jumping into fights with th Demons that plague the world's oceans and have forced humans to be isolated from one another following a great war of the Heavens.  The book follows Ashok Vadal, a Protector of the Law, who will have to face what that means as malevolent machinations begin to come to a head.  Several other characters are followed as well that Ashok meets, helping to bring a richer picture of life in this world and break from Ashok's limited view.  Overall there is a lot of exciting action, and solid world building to set up the rest of the series.  Its a good read, and was tough to put down.

NBA Predictions February 10th to February 13th 2020

All Star Break cuts this week short for us.  But still some very fun and good matchups.  Houston hosts Boston in a game thats important for both teams as they jockey for position in their conferences, While the Nuggets and Lakers play an important top of the standings matchup late this week.

Date	Home Team	Home Team Win Chance	Away Team	Away Team Win Chance	Home Margin
2/10/2020	Detroit	67.63	Charlotte	32.37	4.2
2/10/2020	Indiana	63.98	Brooklyn	36.02	4.1
2/10/2020	Orlando	70.58	Atlanta	29.42	5.2
2/10/2020	Toronto	78.16	Minnesota	21.84	12.3
2/10/2020	Milwaukee	84.92	Sacramento	15.08	12.2
2/10/2020	Dallas	60.55	Utah	39.45	3.0
2/10/2020	Denver	68.15	San Antonio	31.85	7.4
2/10/2020	Golden State	28.46	Miami	71.54	-5.8
2/10/2020	LA Lakers	76.63	Phoenix	23.37	14.0
2/11/2020	Philadelphia	48.09	LA Clippers	51.91	-3.4
2/11/2020	Washington	50.67	Chicago	49.33	2.2
2/11/2020	New Orleans	56.78	Portland	43.22	3.6
2/11/2020	Oklahoma City	66.44	San Antonio	33.56	4.1
2/11/2020	Houston	49.12	Boston	50.88	0.4
2/12/2020	Cleveland	52.64	Atlanta	47.36	-0.7
2/12/2020	Orlando	62.4	Detroit	37.6	7.6
2/12/2020	Indiana	31.58	Milwaukee	68.42	-7.9
2/12/2020	Brooklyn	36.65	Toronto	63.35	-5.2
2/12/2020	New York	54.29	Washington	45.71	2.9
2/12/2020	Minnesota	68.73	Charlotte	31.27	3.0
2/12/2020	Memphis	53.99	Portland	46.01	0.3
2/12/2020	Dallas	73.43	Sacramento	26.57	8.3
2/12/2020	Phoenix	74.2	Golden State	25.8	9.3
2/12/2020	Utah	57.88	Miami	42.12	6.3
2/12/2020	Denver	46.44	LA Lakers	53.56	-0.4
2/13/2020	Boston	59.21	LA Clippers	40.79	2.9
2/13/2020	New Orleans	48.75	Oklahoma City	51.25	-3.0

NBA Power Rankings February 10th 2020

We have one more week with needing a bit more data fro the program to draw any meaningful conclusions post trade deadline.  With it on a Thursday this year and doing this post on a Monday, we only had 15 games and not every team had more than one game.  So we see that things largely sit unchanged for the season long portion.  The Nuggets had a fine week, going 3-0 and besting the Blazers, Jazz and Suns, the latter two on the road.  They also get a nice stretch before the All Star Break, hosting the slumping Spurs before a big matchup in Denver against the Lakers.

Rank	Team	Last Week
1	Milwaukee	1
2	LA Lakers	2
3	Boston	3
4	Toronto	4
5	LA Clippers	5
6	Dallas	6
7	Utah	8
8	Houston	7
9	Denver	11
10	Miami	9
11	Oklahoma City	10
12	Philadelphia	12
13	Indiana	13
14	New Orleans	15
15	Portland	16
16	Phoenix	17
17	San Antonio	14
18	Orlando	18
19	Brooklyn	20
20	Memphis	19
21	Sacramento	21
22	Minnesota	24
23	Chicago	23
24	Detroit	22
25	Washington	25
26	New York	26
27	Atlanta	27
28	Golden State	28
29	Charlotte	29
30	Cleveland	30

Legion Skirmish Battle Report: Krennick vs Sabine

Got to play my second Legion Skirmish mission this past weekend.  Our group really likes this size of game, just for how quickly it can go and that some units get much more usable.

For this matchup I tossed together a list with my newly painted Shore Troopers and E-Web Blaster

Krennick Skirmish 499/500

Director Orson Krennic (90 + 10 = 100)
--Aggressive Tactics (10)
Shoretroopers (52 + 36 = 88)
--T-21B Trooper (32), Targeting Scopes (4)
DF-90 Mortar Trooper (36 + 5 = 41)
--Comms Relay (5)
Imperial Death Troopers (76 + 30 = 106)
--DT-F16 (22), E-11D Focused Fire Config (8)
Imperial Royal Guards (75 + 29 = 104)
--Electrostaff Guard (25), Tenacity (4)
E-Web Heavy Blaster Team (55 + 5 = 60)
--Linked Targeting Array (5)

I probably should have gone with Linked Targeting Array on the Mortar, but I wanted to make sure I had the option to pass off an order to the Royal Guard or the E-Web if need be easily.

My opponent was running a list with Sabine, 2 Rebel Vets, Vet Guns, and a Sniper team.

Sabine 496/500

Rebel Officer (50 + 5 = 55)
--Strict Orders (5)
Sabine Wren (125 + 39 = 164)
--Tenacity (4), Personal Combat Shield (10), The Darksaber (25)
Rebel Veterans (48 + 12 = 60)
--Rebel Veteran (12)

Rebel Veterans (48 + 38 = 86)
--CM-O93 Trooper (26), Rebel Veteran (12)
Mark II Medium Blaster Trooper (38 + 5 = 43)
--Linked Targeting Array (5)
Mark II Medium Blaster Trooper (38 + 5 = 43)
--Linked Targeting Array (5)
Rebel Commandos (Strike Team) (20 + 28 = 48)
--DH-447 Sniper (28)

His list gets Sabine up early for Explosions and then uses the Vets and their guns to take down targets.  Its straightforward and has been very effective

We set up playing Pivotal Positions, Improvised Defenses and Face Off.  The Pivotal Positions were the center Building,  and the two rock formations to my left hand side of the board. Here's what the board looked like on turn 1.

After Setup

I made a little mistake deploying the mortar so far away.  He had Sabine and the Snipers behind the Barricade near the building and essentially mirrored deployments of his Vets and Guns.  My Death troopers are behind a Barricade next to the large stone pillar.  Turn 1 I played Assault, and he played Standing Orders.  I wanted to make sure I could have full control of which units to go with.  I ended up being a bit bold with my Shoretroopers, and moved them up to fire at the Snipers.  They scored well, and I plucked them off the board.  He moved up his Vets and they fired at the Shores killing 1 trooper.  I moved the Royal Guard up behind the building and he moved Sabine on top of the landing pad area.  I again decided to be a bit bold and moved the Death Troopers up to the wooded area to fire at Sabine, hoping to do some damage and get some good suppression in.  I did one damage on the roll which the Shield absorbed, and it left my DTs in a bad spot.  His Rebel Troopers moved up and fired and I lost 2 of them after rolling mostly blanks.

As we went to turn 2 I knew I needed to try to tie up Sabine and so I played Voracious Ambition to his Explosions.  The Royal Guard clambered up at Sabine, taking one wound to turn on Tenacity and charging in.    They did 3 wounds, which was not bad without an aim, but I had been hoping for more.  Sabine then got off explosions, tossing the two bombs between the Shores and Krennick.  The bombs triggered and killed three more shores and put a wound on Krennick.  I pulled the two remain Death troopers back behind Barrier again to get them out of range and out of LOS of the heavy guns.  My opponent took the opportunity to move his troops up, and the turn essentially ended there.

Turn 3 saw this as the board state

Things have gone poorly

The rest of the game essentially saw the Royal Guard fail to do another wound to Sabine, and the E-Web missed killing the Generic Commander on a bad roll before going down.  At that point I conceded, since I had just too little left to push him off the objectives.

Overall ti was a fun, but frustrating game.  I deployed a bit poorly, and rolled pretty poorly as well.  I should like have had the Shores on the other side and had the Death Troopers on the left.  Their armor is a bit better and it would have let me use the Coordinate ability a bit better with the E-Web.  I also should have anticipated Sabine going up on top of the building earlier and prepared for it by having the E-Web better placed.  Sabine is an absolute monster at this point range, and I likely need some better beef to deal with her going forward.