NCAAF Playoff Odds

For the playoff picture I've created a couple of easy stacked charts to show each teams chance of advancing to the Title game, and an overall picture of their odds of winning the National Title.


Clemson and Alabama gets a rubber match in the semi-final round.  The program likes Clemson's overall season better, but its going to be close.  The predicted margin is under a field goal, but I think Clemson has been just more consistent this year.  Alabama is also now down a D coordinator, which we saw last year hurt as Lane Kiffin left.

Clemson has a 64% chance to advance

This game is going to be amazing.  The Sooners offense has pounded just about everyone they've faced, but the Bulldogs are easily the best defense they will face.  The Dawgs offense is no slouch either, and the Sooners run defense is one of the worst in the Nation.  Another close one, but I think Georgia has enough D to get a few stops and win out.

Georgia has a 58% Chance to Advance

Overall the Program likes Clemson to advance and win against either opponent, but both games would be nail biters.  This might just be the best year for the playoff committee yet, with 3 potentially amazing games.

 

Clemson:42%, Georgia:23%,Alabama 17%, Oklahoma 13%

2017 NCAAF Bowl Picks

One of the best times of the college football season is bowl time.  You get to see teams that rarely (if ever) play each other match up in odd locations.  It makes forecasting these games much more difficult, especially when you then factor in how many teams have gone through corrdinator changes and coaching changes. 

But, its still fun to take a look at how the game will shake up.  There are two tabs on the sheet for that, one in traditional game order and the other in order of projected margin, the excitability factor.

NCAA Final Rankings

It does truly surprise me that Alabama was able to make the playoff over Ohio State.  A huge loss to Iowa I think drove a perception they were far worse than they really were.  Not of course that Alabama was that far off from the Buckeyes, all the top teams are basically a point away from each other.

I'll have probably this weekend my playoff predictions, and a set of bowl predictions all done. 

Team	Rank
Clemson	1
Penn State	2
Ohio State	3
Wisconsin	4
Georgia	5
Alabama	6
Oklahoma	7
Notre Dame	8
Washington	9
Auburn	10
Texas Christian	11
Iowa	12
Central Florida	13
Miami(FL)	14
Oklahoma State	15
Michigan	16
Northwestern	17
Wake Forest	18
Louisville	19
Michigan State	20
Southern California	21
Purdue	22
Virginia Tech	23
Stanford	24
Mississippi State	25
North Carolina State	26
Florida State	27
Boston College	28
Iowa State	29
Louisiana State	30
Texas	31
Duke	32
Georgia Tech	33
Boise State	34
Washington State	35
Oregon	36
Florida Atlantic	37
Memphis	38
West Virginia	39
South Florida	40
Toledo	41
Kansas State	42
Utah	43
Indiana	44
Fresno State	45
Texas Tech	46
Minnesota	47
Missouri	48
South Carolina	49
San Diego State	50
Arizona State	51
Ohio	52
Arizona	53
Navy	54
Syracuse	55
Army	56
Pittsburgh	57
Southern Methodist	58
Nebraska	59
Maryland	60
Northern Illinois	61
UCLA	62
Houston	63
California	64
Virginia	65
Texas A&M	66
North Carolina	67
Mississippi	68
Florida	69
Rutgers	70
Colorado State	71
Kentucky	72
Troy	73
Utah State	74
Marshall	75
Western Michigan	76
Arkansas State	77
Wyoming	78
Appalachian State	79
Buffalo	80
Colorado	81
Arkansas	82
Eastern Michigan	83
Air Force	84
Tulane	85
Vanderbilt	86
North Texas	87
Central Michigan	88
Akron	89
Tennessee	90
Temple	91
Baylor	92
Louisiana Tech	93
Southern Mississippi	94
Texas-San Antonio	95
Miami(OH)	96
Middle Tennessee State	97
Illinois	98
Tulsa	99
Nevada	100
Florida International	101
Alabama-Birmingham	102
Nevada-Las Vegas	103
Brigham Young	104
Massachusetts	105
New Mexico State	106
New Mexico	107
Western Kentucky	108
Cincinnati	109
Connecticut	110
Louisiana-Monroe	111
Kansas	112
Bowling Green State	113
South Alabama	114
Idaho	115
Oregon State	116
Georgia State	117
East Carolina	118
Hawaii	119
Old Dominion	120
Kent State	121
Louisiana-Lafayette	122
Georgia Southern	123
Rice	124
Ball State	125
Coastal Carolina	126
San Jose State	127
Charlotte	128
Texas State	129
Texas-El Paso	130

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Another set of important games this weekend.  The Rams have the edge at home over the Eagles, while the Saints look to seal up the NFC South with a win in Atlanta. 

Book Review: Crow Planet

Several years ago I heard an interview on the John Batchelor Show with Lyanda Lynn Haupt, an author and ecologist for her new book Crow Planet: Essential Wisdom from the Urban Wilderness.  The subject of the crows was pretty astounding to me, just how intelligent these corvids are.  I put the book on my Amazon to read list, and it sat there for a few years, getting pushed back by whatever else caught my fancy at the time.  My wife recently picked it up for me at the library, since I have been put on book buying ban for awhile.  

I dove into it, expecting to see many more stories like had been told in the interview and some more insight into the life of the crow.  I found many of them, such as the manners in which crows gather together in large groups to exchange information.  Or that crows often play games by flying and dropping sticks to try and catch before they hit the ground.  The book does a good ob of intermixing Lyanda's experiences with an injured crow she observed over time and how other crows helped care for the hurt bird.  

But, to my disappointment, roughly half the book is on her thoughts of the Urban Wilderness and her thoughts on environmentalism.  These long meanderings in her thoughts really distracted from the interesting stories of Crow intelligence and social behavior.  There is a long list early in the book on her observation tools and why she chose the items she did.  They are not specialist tools, simply note books, boots, and binoculars.  She delves a bit into her personal life and a struggle with some mental break which was meant to tie in with the wounded crow, but failed to strike any chords.


Overall this book is a 3 out of 5 for me.  If it had focused more on the Crows and other animals it mentions, or kept most of the commentary about her philosophical musings to one section it would have been a much smoother and enjoyable read. 

Broncos: Long Drive Performance

As the Broncos season are now eliminated from contention in the AFC West (and essentially from any playoff hope), its time to take a look at the performance overall on what I call long drives.  The definition I use is that any drive of 70 or more yards of potential yards is long.  I think this is a standard definition for most folks, and it creates a nice easy cut off to analyze by.

The Denver Defense

		AVERAGE of Start	AVERAGE of Percent Yards Gained	COUNT of Start
BUF	Field Goal	25	50.66666667	1
	Punt	22.33333333	16.26068376	3
	Touchdown	26	100	1
BUF Total		23.6	39.88974359	5
CIN	Blocked Punt	30	5.714285714	1
	Punt	16.28571429	15.38998682	7
	Touchdown	25	100	1
CIN Total		18.77777778	23.7160215	9
DAL	Downs	25	44	1
	Field Goal	25	49.33333333	1
	Interception	25	13.33333333	1
	Punt	23.5	8.827160494	4
DAL Total		24.14285714	20.28218695	7
KAN	Field Goal	25	66.66666667	1
	Fumble	21	51.89873418	1
	Punt	25	12.47630635	4
KAN Total		24.33333333	28.07843771	6
LAC	Downs	25	33.33333	1
	Interception	25	5.333333	1
	Punt	18	15.14296297	7
	Touchdown	16.5	100	2
LAC Total		19	31.33340034	11
MIA	Interception	11	12.35955056	1
	Punt	16.66666667	31.9684557	3
	Touchdown	25	100	1
MIA Total		17.2	41.65298353	5
NE	Downs	21	58.2278481	1
	Field Goal	25	90.66666667	1
	Punt	25	6.666666667	1
	Touchdown	18.66666667	100	3
NE Total		21.16666667	75.92686357	6
NYG	Field Goal	24	90.78947368	1
	Punt	20.25	10.67388167	4
	Touchdown	25	100	1
NYG Total		21.66666667	38.91416673	6
OAK	Downs	11	7.865168539	1
	Field Goal	7	78.49462366	1
	Fumble	28	-5.555555556	1
	Punt	22	3.199129853	6
	Touchdown	10.5	100	2
OAK Total		18.09090909	27.2726378	11
PHI	Downs	26	31.08108108	1
	Fumble	23	-5.194805195	1
	Punt	24	3.402597403	2
	Touchdown	24.5	100	4
PHI Total		24.375	54.08643384	8
Grand Total		20.91891892	36.45956535	74

The defense has performed pretty admirably so far given the circumstances.  Opponents have averaged just 36% of the total possible yards, with 13 touchdowns allowed.  Thats only 17% of drives that are expected to score if they start long, with 7 of those coming in two bad games for the D (NE and Phi).

The Offense

		AVERAGE of Start	AVERAGE of Percent Yards Gained	COUNT of Start
DEN	Blocked Punt	25	14.66666667	1
	Downs	17.33333333	40.33587497	6
	Field Goal	21.85714286	80.74410057	14
	Fumble	18.2	25.75513322	5
	Fumble, Safety	5	-5.263157895	1
	Interception	21.30769231	17.84548648	13
	Missed FG	19.75	55.78562135	4
	Punt	18.28	8.613585653	50
	Touchdown	21.85714286	100	14
DEN Total		19.50925926	35.15208264	108
Grand Total		19.50925926	35.15208264	108

This is where it gets really disheartening.  More INTs and Fumbles than TDs and gaining only 8% of yards needed on drives that end with a punt.  That means Denver is not flipping field position at all.

Th

THis