We've come to the end of the conference tournament winners now with the Power 5 teams. Next week I'll try to break down some of the teams that might be sneaking into the tournament, and where everyone sits as we approach March Madness.
Atlantic Coast
Winner: Duke
The Blue Devils continue to be one of the most efficient offenses in the country, this year ranking 10th overall by KenPom with an adjusted efficiency of 114.9. They clean up on the offensive boards, nabbing 34.8% of their misses, and steals are the only way to generate turnovers from them. The defense is there as well, with a top 10 defensive efficiency. Duke has also been able to mitigate opponents from taking threes by defensing them quite well; opponents are only making 29.9% of their attempts.
The Louisville Cardinals will etst that 3 point defense, as they make 37.6^ of their shots from beyond the arc. They dont generate many turnovers, but are quite adept at keeping opponent scoring inside down, allowing a shooting percentage of just 45% from 2.
Southeastern
Winner: Kentucky
Teams have only shot 39.1% against Kentucky this season, and the defense has held teams to just 66 points per game. On offense the Wildcats are adept at getting to the line, earning a shot from the strip on 41.5% of their field goals. They also make nearly 80% of their attempts, and nearly a quarter of their points this season.
Auburn is one of the most challenging teams in the SEC, thanks in large part to their ability to get to the line as well. The Tigers dont make many 3s though, ranking 318th in 3 point shooting percentage. Arkansas is another team that might be being slept on, thanks to a long skid mid season. But they generate turnovers and defend the 3 very well.
Big 12
Winner: Kansas
The Jayhawks are Kenpom's top ranked team this season. Thanks largely to a devastating defense, that has the 4th lowest EFG against at 43.7%, and excellent discipline not to foul (23.3% of shots get free throw attempts) this team is poised to be the top ranked in the Tournament come march. They dont shoot overly well, with a 64.1% free throw percentage, but they;re efficient in their possession, ranking 8th overall in adjusted efficiency.
The only other Big 12 team to beat KU this season has been Baylor, and the Bears are having an amazing season of their own. They rank 4th in defensive efficiency, and force turnovers on 22.7% of possessions.
Pac 12
Winner:Arizona
This is the tightest conference the program has. The Wildcats edge out the Ducks, thanks to a defense that allows 45.3 EFG%, and blocks 10.7% of shots. They also do not turn the ball over on offense, with a 16.4% marks to rank in the top 10% of the country. The Oregon Ducks are right behind them, as a team thats shoots blisteringly hot from beyonf the arc at 39%. Finally, Colorado has a good shot if they can get of their recent skid, as a team that ranks 48th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Big 10
Winner: Maryland
The Terrapins have an offense that is ranked 24th in adjusted efficiency, despite positng a very middling 48.2 EFG%. They do however get to the line at a good 37,4% clip, and dont turn the ball over. Defensively they also dont give up free throws, and they make inside shots ery difficult. Teams are only shooting 44.1% inside against them.
Michigan State is the other defensive power house in the conference, as they allow just 28% from beyond the arc and 43.1% inside it. This team is also very good at generating assists, posting a nation how rate of 65% of shot mad being assisted.
Friday, March 6, 2020
Thursday, March 5, 2020
NCAA Conference Predictions: Mid Majors Part 3
Into the last set of Mid Majors before their conference tournaments start.
American East
Winner: Vermont
The Catamounts allow just 59 points per game, and have one of the best interior defenses in the nation. They block 10.5% of shots taken against them, and although they dont generate many turnovers, rank 53rd in defensive efficiency
Stony Brook is the most likely contender to knock off Vermont, but they shoot at sub 50% and while they sport a good defense, its unlikely to be enough.
Atlantic 10
Winner: Dayton
Dayton boasts the top ranked EFG% in the nation, coming in at a hot 59.7%. They shoot exceptionally well inside, making 63% of their twos and an impressive 36.4% of threes they take as well. Their defensive efficiency is pretty solid as well, ranking 5th in the nation.
Richmond is the only team the program likes to have a shot, since they don't turn the ball over and they rebound well. The Spiders face a real uphill climb though, especially since they dont get to the line very often.
Big Sky
Winner: Northern Colorado
The Grizzlies are an interesting team. They shoot fairly well, but their ability to defend the three is what makes them intriguing. Opponents only take 23.7% of their shots as threes, and they only make 29% of them.
Eastern Washington currently is on top of the conference, but they have some short comings. They dont shoot free throws very well, and they allow a few too many trips to the stripe.
Big West
Winner: UC Irvine
UC Irvine sits on top of the Big West. They post a good defensive efficiency, and aloow just a 46 EFG%. They do have some trouble turning the ball over, and dont force enough turnovers.
The program likes UC Riverside's defense quite a bit, but I dont think theyve got the horses to knock off the Anteaters.
Metro Atlantic
Winner: Siena
The Saints are a very middle ground team, that has a below average defense. They are able to force a slow tempo, averaging 67 possessions in their games. Rider has nearly the same chance as Siena, and they do it by getting to the free throw line, 40.8% of the their shots. They run a high tempo attack, ranking 51st.
Mid Eastern Atlantic
Winner:Norfolk State
The MEAC is a pretty big dearth of offensive play with the best in conference being Norfolk, that ranked 318th in offensive efficiency. The Spartans do force turnovers at a good rate, 21.6%, and opponents have only posted a 47.5 EFG%.
Nipping at their heels are NC Central, who steals the ball 11% of the time and they actually have a decent inside game, shooting 52%.
Mid American
Winner: Akron
The Zips have been a good team all season, playing close with West Virginia and Louisville. They're a well a balanced team, posting a 51.7 EFG% while also shooting about 44% of their shots from beyond the arc. They also nail their free throws, hitting 76%. The defense is efficient, ranking in the top 100 by KenPom.
Kent State is the most likely to topple the Zips, by virtue of being one of he better shooting MAC teams. Bowling Green could force some things, but their defense is just not good enough.
Conference USA
Winner:Louisiana Tech
Tech is an interesting team, because overall they are a good shooting team, shooting 46.6% overall on the season. But their free throw shooting is just bad at 66.8%. Their defense is solid, with a turnover rate of 20.5% and a Defensive rating of 98.8 by KenPom.
North Texas is the current conference leader, thanks to being one of the bets shooting teams int he nation. They hit 37.5% of their threes, and they make up about 41% of their attempts. They give up a lot of free throws though, and teams are hitting just about as many threes as the Mean Green are.
American East
Winner: Vermont
The Catamounts allow just 59 points per game, and have one of the best interior defenses in the nation. They block 10.5% of shots taken against them, and although they dont generate many turnovers, rank 53rd in defensive efficiency
Stony Brook is the most likely contender to knock off Vermont, but they shoot at sub 50% and while they sport a good defense, its unlikely to be enough.
Atlantic 10
Winner: Dayton
Dayton boasts the top ranked EFG% in the nation, coming in at a hot 59.7%. They shoot exceptionally well inside, making 63% of their twos and an impressive 36.4% of threes they take as well. Their defensive efficiency is pretty solid as well, ranking 5th in the nation.
Richmond is the only team the program likes to have a shot, since they don't turn the ball over and they rebound well. The Spiders face a real uphill climb though, especially since they dont get to the line very often.
Big Sky
Winner: Northern Colorado
The Grizzlies are an interesting team. They shoot fairly well, but their ability to defend the three is what makes them intriguing. Opponents only take 23.7% of their shots as threes, and they only make 29% of them.
Eastern Washington currently is on top of the conference, but they have some short comings. They dont shoot free throws very well, and they allow a few too many trips to the stripe.
Big West
Winner: UC Irvine
UC Irvine sits on top of the Big West. They post a good defensive efficiency, and aloow just a 46 EFG%. They do have some trouble turning the ball over, and dont force enough turnovers.
The program likes UC Riverside's defense quite a bit, but I dont think theyve got the horses to knock off the Anteaters.
Metro Atlantic
Winner: Siena
The Saints are a very middle ground team, that has a below average defense. They are able to force a slow tempo, averaging 67 possessions in their games. Rider has nearly the same chance as Siena, and they do it by getting to the free throw line, 40.8% of the their shots. They run a high tempo attack, ranking 51st.
Mid Eastern Atlantic
Winner:Norfolk State
The MEAC is a pretty big dearth of offensive play with the best in conference being Norfolk, that ranked 318th in offensive efficiency. The Spartans do force turnovers at a good rate, 21.6%, and opponents have only posted a 47.5 EFG%.
Nipping at their heels are NC Central, who steals the ball 11% of the time and they actually have a decent inside game, shooting 52%.
Mid American
Winner: Akron
The Zips have been a good team all season, playing close with West Virginia and Louisville. They're a well a balanced team, posting a 51.7 EFG% while also shooting about 44% of their shots from beyond the arc. They also nail their free throws, hitting 76%. The defense is efficient, ranking in the top 100 by KenPom.
Kent State is the most likely to topple the Zips, by virtue of being one of he better shooting MAC teams. Bowling Green could force some things, but their defense is just not good enough.
Conference USA
Winner:Louisiana Tech
Tech is an interesting team, because overall they are a good shooting team, shooting 46.6% overall on the season. But their free throw shooting is just bad at 66.8%. Their defense is solid, with a turnover rate of 20.5% and a Defensive rating of 98.8 by KenPom.
North Texas is the current conference leader, thanks to being one of the bets shooting teams int he nation. They hit 37.5% of their threes, and they make up about 41% of their attempts. They give up a lot of free throws though, and teams are hitting just about as many threes as the Mean Green are.
Wednesday, March 4, 2020
NCAA Conference Predictions: Mid Majors Part 2
NorthEast
Winner: Robert Morris
The Northeast conference is fairly tightly packed. The Colonials though are one of the better balanced teams in the conference, and they shoot 3s well. They also generate shots typically on assists, with 64% of their shots made being assisted. Defensively they force turnovers and don't foul too badly.
The other balanced team in the conference is Sacred Heart, who is also an excellent rebounding team. The Red Flash of St. Francis PA are also a tough beat, with a good offensive efficiency but a worse defensive output (allowing 51.3% EFG)
Mountain West
Winner: San Diego State
The Aztecs are one of the best teams in the nation overall, with just a heart breaker at home standing between them and an undefeated regular season. They shoot well (54.8 EFG%) and don't turn the ball over (16.4%). Malachi Flynn leads the team, and is one off the nation's top players averaging 18 a game and five assists.
Utah state likely poses the biggest threat, as a scrappy defensive team with some offensive moments.
Missouri Valley
Winner: Northern Iowa
The Panthers shoot lights out. They make 39% of their 3 point attempts and have a number 7 ranked EFG of 55.7. They dont generate many free throws, with a rate of just 28%, but they also don't give up points that way either. A solid defense that doesnt generate many turnovers could lead to some questions though.
Loyola-Chicago does force a lot of turnovers though, stealing the ball on nearly 12% of opponent possessions. The Ramblers are also a good shooting team, with their own EFG% of 55.
Colonial
Winner: Hofstra
Hofstra has an efficient offense that shoots threes well. They dont take a lot of threes (38% of their shots), but when they take them they make them. The team also is excellent from the charity stripe, making 78% of their freebies. The defense is a whole other matter though, where the Pride have not fair well all year. They rank 256th in points allowed this season.
Northeastern is their foil and likely toughest out. They lead the conference in forced turnovers, and rebound exceptionally well defensively.
West Coast
Winner: Gonzaga
Another year where the Zags are one of the best in the nation. They grade out as top in offensive efficiency by KenPom's metrics, with a blistering average possession time of 15 seconds. They rank third overall in EFG, with a 57.7%, while also generating free throws on 38% of their shot attempts. The defense is there as well, as they clean up the glass well and allow just a 47.3 EFG%.
BYU forces a lot of turnovers, and are an excellent offense on their own, making 42% of their three point attempts.
Sun Belt
Winner: Texas State
The Bobcats are a poor shooting team. They rank 231st in EFG, and 250 in 3 point percentage. On defense though they can be stfiling, surrendering just 64 points per game.
Georgia State is a bit of a better shooting team, especially when they take threes. They hit 37% and run at a high tempo, which makes them almsot as likely to win the whole thing.
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
NCAA Conference Tournament Predictions: Mid Majors Part 1
The first installment of Conference tournament winner predictions, this covers a lot of the mid major tournaments that get started early this week. I've given the programs winner, and try to say a little bit about the team the program thinks has the next best chance to win.
Ivy League
Winner: Yale Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are a solid all around team, that excels at 3 point shooting. They rank 27th in the nation at a 37% clip, and shoot fairly well overall with a 54.1% Effective Field goal percentage. On defense, Yale has allowed just a 45.9% effective field goal percentage, and are excellent at not giving up extra points with baskets. Just 25% of shots attempted get free throws.
The Harvard Crimson are the only other real threat, as a mirror matchup essentially of the things Yale does well. But the Bulldogs do them better.
WAC
Winner: New Mexico State
The Aggies have one of the highest volume of 3 point attempts in the country, at 46.3%. This large volume is what fuels a pretty good Effective Field Goal percentage, 52.4%. The Aggies are also fairly adept at getting their misses, nabbing 34.5% of them. The Aggies also dont waste possessions, with just one in five ended up as turnovers.
Cal baptist has a chance to steal the conference tourney, again being the same team as the Aggies just slightly worse. Milan Acquaah is one of the best in the country at creating assists, but it still probably isnt enough for the Lancers.
American Athletic
Winner: Houston
The Houston Cougars have quietly turned themselves into a real powerhouse in the AMerican, on pace this year for 24 wins in a very competitive group. Its a stifling defense that has propelled Houston forward this year, with teams shooting just 38% against them. They lead the country in blocks and dont allow teams to get extra points on their shots, with just 40% getting to the charity stripe.
Wichita State might just be the team to knock off Houston. The Shockers are another defensive minded team, that has been extremely streaky on offense. SMU will also pose a threat, thanks to the twentieth ranked offensive efficiency by KenPom.
Southland
Winner: Stephen F Austin
The Lumberjacks are another hot shooting team, but unlike the others profiled so far they actually get to the line fairly often by drawing free throws on 42.2% of their field goals attempted. While they have a turnover problem on offense, they generate more on defense as well. 27.8% of opponent possessions end up in the 'jacks hands, as Duke saw earlier this year.
Sam Houston State again mirrors the things Stephen F Austin does well, but they do so without turning the ball over. They could be a real problem in a finals type matchup.
Southern
Winner: UNC Greensboro
The Spartans begin their tournament on Saturday after dropping the final two regular season games. They are a defensive minded team, ranking in the top 20 in steals, blocks and overall turnover percentage forced. The offense though is pretty dreadful, with slow pace and a sub 49% EFG.
There is a real chance that top seed ETSU remains there, with being just an overall solid team. They ranking the top 70 in both offensive ad defensive efficiency from KenPom, and they're a good enough shooting team to knock of the Spartans.
Summit
Winner: South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are a good shooting team, and are efficient ranking 44th in the nation according to Kenpom. They're lead by power forward Douglas Wilson, who is n offensive machine one the inside. Its a big reason why the Jackrabbits shoot well above 54% in the 2 point range.
The Jackrabbits will have stiff competition from the ND State Bison. They are more middle of the pack across the board on offense and defense, but they do generate a lot of turnovers.
Ohio Valley
Winner: Belmont
The Bruins carry a nine game win streak into their conference tournament. They boast a 55.5 EFG%, top ten in the country. The Bruins also don't turn the ball over, just 16% of possessions getting lost. Defensively they are good at not giving up extra possessions and free throws.
Murray State is a team that is adept at generating free throws, and shoots just about as well as Belmont does. But they turn the ball over more and are much less consistent overall.
Big South
Winner: Winthrop
Winthrop cleans up on the offensive glass, nabbing 35% of their misses. This has helped lead to a good inside shooting rate of 53.6% over the course of the season. Opponents however have had a decent time shooting against the Eagles, posting a 51.4 EFG%.
Radford though could give them some real issues, as they have the best shooting rate in the conference and they turn the ball over less. The Eagles though are the better defensive squad.
Atlantic Sun
Winner: Liberty
The Flames are far and away the best team in the conference. They shoot well, dont turn the ball over much and they lay good defense, ranking 20th in the nation in defensive EFG%.
Horizon
Winner: Wright State
The Raiders play one of the faster paces in the country, with about 72 posession per game. They shoot threes well enough to cover up just a 50% rate on two pointers, which is pretty low. They do also get to the charity stripe on 37.5% of their shot attempts.
Northern Kentucky plays good defense and doesnt turn the ball over, but they shouldnt worry the Raiders too much.
Ivy League
Winner: Yale Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are a solid all around team, that excels at 3 point shooting. They rank 27th in the nation at a 37% clip, and shoot fairly well overall with a 54.1% Effective Field goal percentage. On defense, Yale has allowed just a 45.9% effective field goal percentage, and are excellent at not giving up extra points with baskets. Just 25% of shots attempted get free throws.
The Harvard Crimson are the only other real threat, as a mirror matchup essentially of the things Yale does well. But the Bulldogs do them better.
WAC
Winner: New Mexico State
The Aggies have one of the highest volume of 3 point attempts in the country, at 46.3%. This large volume is what fuels a pretty good Effective Field Goal percentage, 52.4%. The Aggies are also fairly adept at getting their misses, nabbing 34.5% of them. The Aggies also dont waste possessions, with just one in five ended up as turnovers.
Cal baptist has a chance to steal the conference tourney, again being the same team as the Aggies just slightly worse. Milan Acquaah is one of the best in the country at creating assists, but it still probably isnt enough for the Lancers.
American Athletic
Winner: Houston
The Houston Cougars have quietly turned themselves into a real powerhouse in the AMerican, on pace this year for 24 wins in a very competitive group. Its a stifling defense that has propelled Houston forward this year, with teams shooting just 38% against them. They lead the country in blocks and dont allow teams to get extra points on their shots, with just 40% getting to the charity stripe.
Wichita State might just be the team to knock off Houston. The Shockers are another defensive minded team, that has been extremely streaky on offense. SMU will also pose a threat, thanks to the twentieth ranked offensive efficiency by KenPom.
Southland
Winner: Stephen F Austin
The Lumberjacks are another hot shooting team, but unlike the others profiled so far they actually get to the line fairly often by drawing free throws on 42.2% of their field goals attempted. While they have a turnover problem on offense, they generate more on defense as well. 27.8% of opponent possessions end up in the 'jacks hands, as Duke saw earlier this year.
Sam Houston State again mirrors the things Stephen F Austin does well, but they do so without turning the ball over. They could be a real problem in a finals type matchup.
Southern
Winner: UNC Greensboro
The Spartans begin their tournament on Saturday after dropping the final two regular season games. They are a defensive minded team, ranking in the top 20 in steals, blocks and overall turnover percentage forced. The offense though is pretty dreadful, with slow pace and a sub 49% EFG.
There is a real chance that top seed ETSU remains there, with being just an overall solid team. They ranking the top 70 in both offensive ad defensive efficiency from KenPom, and they're a good enough shooting team to knock of the Spartans.
Summit
Winner: South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are a good shooting team, and are efficient ranking 44th in the nation according to Kenpom. They're lead by power forward Douglas Wilson, who is n offensive machine one the inside. Its a big reason why the Jackrabbits shoot well above 54% in the 2 point range.
The Jackrabbits will have stiff competition from the ND State Bison. They are more middle of the pack across the board on offense and defense, but they do generate a lot of turnovers.
Ohio Valley
Winner: Belmont
The Bruins carry a nine game win streak into their conference tournament. They boast a 55.5 EFG%, top ten in the country. The Bruins also don't turn the ball over, just 16% of possessions getting lost. Defensively they are good at not giving up extra possessions and free throws.
Murray State is a team that is adept at generating free throws, and shoots just about as well as Belmont does. But they turn the ball over more and are much less consistent overall.
Big South
Winner: Winthrop
Winthrop cleans up on the offensive glass, nabbing 35% of their misses. This has helped lead to a good inside shooting rate of 53.6% over the course of the season. Opponents however have had a decent time shooting against the Eagles, posting a 51.4 EFG%.
Radford though could give them some real issues, as they have the best shooting rate in the conference and they turn the ball over less. The Eagles though are the better defensive squad.
Atlantic Sun
Winner: Liberty
The Flames are far and away the best team in the conference. They shoot well, dont turn the ball over much and they lay good defense, ranking 20th in the nation in defensive EFG%.
Horizon
Winner: Wright State
The Raiders play one of the faster paces in the country, with about 72 posession per game. They shoot threes well enough to cover up just a 50% rate on two pointers, which is pretty low. They do also get to the charity stripe on 37.5% of their shot attempts.
Northern Kentucky plays good defense and doesnt turn the ball over, but they shouldnt worry the Raiders too much.
Monday, March 2, 2020
NBA Predictions March 2nd to the 8th 2020
The program expects quite a few blowouts this week, but we've still got some excellent matchups. The Heat host the Bucks tonight in a game they could potentially steal to get back on track fully, and Tuesday night has the Thunder and Clippers square off in what could be a playoff preview. The Nuggets desperately need to get 3 wins this week against 3 down teams to help lock up their playoff spot. The week really caps off with Lakers-Clippers on Sunday, in what could be the series decider.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)