The first installment of Conference tournament winner predictions, this covers a lot of the mid major tournaments that get started early this week. I've given the programs winner, and try to say a little bit about the team the program thinks has the next best chance to win.
Ivy League
Winner: Yale Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are a solid all around team, that excels at 3 point shooting. They rank 27th in the nation at a 37% clip, and shoot fairly well overall with a 54.1% Effective Field goal percentage. On defense, Yale has allowed just a 45.9% effective field goal percentage, and are excellent at not giving up extra points with baskets. Just 25% of shots attempted get free throws.
The Harvard Crimson are the only other real threat, as a mirror matchup essentially of the things Yale does well. But the Bulldogs do them better.
WAC
Winner: New Mexico State
The Aggies have one of the highest volume of 3 point attempts in the country, at 46.3%. This large volume is what fuels a pretty good Effective Field Goal percentage, 52.4%. The Aggies are also fairly adept at getting their misses, nabbing 34.5% of them. The Aggies also dont waste possessions, with just one in five ended up as turnovers.
Cal baptist has a chance to steal the conference tourney, again being the same team as the Aggies just slightly worse. Milan Acquaah is one of the best in the country at creating assists, but it still probably isnt enough for the Lancers.
American Athletic
Winner: Houston
The Houston Cougars have quietly turned themselves into a real powerhouse in the AMerican, on pace this year for 24 wins in a very competitive group. Its a stifling defense that has propelled Houston forward this year, with teams shooting just 38% against them. They lead the country in blocks and dont allow teams to get extra points on their shots, with just 40% getting to the charity stripe.
Wichita State might just be the team to knock off Houston. The Shockers are another defensive minded team, that has been extremely streaky on offense. SMU will also pose a threat, thanks to the twentieth ranked offensive efficiency by KenPom.
Southland
Winner: Stephen F Austin
The Lumberjacks are another hot shooting team, but unlike the others profiled so far they actually get to the line fairly often by drawing free throws on 42.2% of their field goals attempted. While they have a turnover problem on offense, they generate more on defense as well. 27.8% of opponent possessions end up in the 'jacks hands, as Duke saw earlier this year.
Sam Houston State again mirrors the things Stephen F Austin does well, but they do so without turning the ball over. They could be a real problem in a finals type matchup.
Southern
Winner: UNC Greensboro
The Spartans begin their tournament on Saturday after dropping the final two regular season games. They are a defensive minded team, ranking in the top 20 in steals, blocks and overall turnover percentage forced. The offense though is pretty dreadful, with slow pace and a sub 49% EFG.
There is a real chance that top seed ETSU remains there, with being just an overall solid team. They ranking the top 70 in both offensive ad defensive efficiency from KenPom, and they're a good enough shooting team to knock of the Spartans.
Summit
Winner: South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are a good shooting team, and are efficient ranking 44th in the nation according to Kenpom. They're lead by power forward Douglas Wilson, who is n offensive machine one the inside. Its a big reason why the Jackrabbits shoot well above 54% in the 2 point range.
The Jackrabbits will have stiff competition from the ND State Bison. They are more middle of the pack across the board on offense and defense, but they do generate a lot of turnovers.
Ohio Valley
Winner: Belmont
The Bruins carry a nine game win streak into their conference tournament. They boast a 55.5 EFG%, top ten in the country. The Bruins also don't turn the ball over, just 16% of possessions getting lost. Defensively they are good at not giving up extra possessions and free throws.
Murray State is a team that is adept at generating free throws, and shoots just about as well as Belmont does. But they turn the ball over more and are much less consistent overall.
Big South
Winner: Winthrop
Winthrop cleans up on the offensive glass, nabbing 35% of their misses. This has helped lead to a good inside shooting rate of 53.6% over the course of the season. Opponents however have had a decent time shooting against the Eagles, posting a 51.4 EFG%.
Radford though could give them some real issues, as they have the best shooting rate in the conference and they turn the ball over less. The Eagles though are the better defensive squad.
Atlantic Sun
Winner: Liberty
The Flames are far and away the best team in the conference. They shoot well, dont turn the ball over much and they lay good defense, ranking 20th in the nation in defensive EFG%.
Horizon
Winner: Wright State
The Raiders play one of the faster paces in the country, with about 72 posession per game. They shoot threes well enough to cover up just a 50% rate on two pointers, which is pretty low. They do also get to the charity stripe on 37.5% of their shot attempts.
Northern Kentucky plays good defense and doesnt turn the ball over, but they shouldnt worry the Raiders too much.
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