What happened in the Elite 8?

An exciting basketball weekend, with an overtime game between two of the premiere coaches, a powerhouse team grapple to the death with its opponent, and an on fire shooting performance from a Junior.  All in all, it was a great time to watch.  It was also abysmally frustrating, as the program went 0-4 picking these games, and most of them werent close.  I always like to delve into the game specifics when that happens, to see why the program would have liked a team more and what caused the game to go so differently.  So, here are my observations for each game.

Arizona vs Wisconsin:  Both teams really played up to their offensive capacity here.  The game flowed more at Arizona's seasonl pace, but the Badgers took full advantage posting an effective field goal percentage about 13% higher than normal.  The driver of that was Sam Dekker going on fire from beyond the arc in the second half.  As the Badgers came out of the tunnel, Dekker had gone just 2-5 in the first half, missing his only three point attempt.  From then on though, he went 5-5 from beyond the arc, with a ridiculous .959 true shooting for the game.  Dekker basically won this game for Wisconsin, since he also got to the line on basically two thirds of his shot attempts.

Michigan State vs Louisville: This game I wasn't too surprised by.  Louisville had played a long tough game against NC State in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State is a formidable team.  This game though came down to a 7 minute stretch in the second half.  The Spartans played good defense, and Louisville went ice cold.  At about 14 minutes left, Blackshear hit three free throws.  Until 6 and half minutes, the Cardinals would make one field goal.  They missed 10 shots during that period.  Their three point lead turned into a four point defeceit. 

Kentucky vs Notre Dame: This game should have been a much bigger win for the Wildcats.  The Irish, despite being the best shooting team in the country had just a% effective field goal rate, and had three starters shoot at 35% or less.  Kentucky got to the line about 15% more of the time on their shots, outrebounded the Irish, and hit just as many threes on six fewer attempts.  Trey Lyles though had an awful game.  He more than doubled his turnover rate for the season, and was the low man for shooting amongst the starters.  That's the kind of perfromance from a player thats getting touches on almost 39% of the Wildcats' posessions that will make what should have been a clear victory come down to a nailbiter.

Duke vs Gonzaga: This game is one that the program had pegged as a clear blowout for the Zags, and they instead got taken to the cleaners.  Both teams shot well, keeping up with their season rankings as top 5 shooting teams.  The Zags downfall was an inability to get to the line.  They don't normally rely on the charity stripe, but if you can only draw nine fouls in the modern game, you arent going to win very often.  The Zags also couldn't force a turnover to save their tournament lives.  Duke turned it over just twice, while forcing thirteen of them.  Even with those failures, the Zags had a chance, with the game being an open layup away from being tied with five minutes left. 

Elite 8 Charts, Data, Win%

Things went fairly to plan in the Sweet 16.  Kentucky and Gonzaga easily handled their opponents, while a majority of the field was competitive through most of game time. The linear solver saw a closer game of Notre Dame and the Shockers, but the mid major darlings went cold shooting again (which was the same thing that had doomed them two years ago during their last Final 4 run).  Overall got 7/8 games picked correctly, with the Sooners being the only big swing and a miss.

Arizona vsWisconsin

Expected Outcome: Arizona by 1

Arizona has a 51% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Arizona	53.58	16.71	34.14	47.12	44.32	21.10	22.32	36.30	116.01	86.38
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.260

Duke vs Gonzaga

Expected Outcome: Gonzaga by 1

Gonzaga has a 52% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Gonzaga	58.44	16.27	33.87	39.13	43.59	17.62	28.62	31.64	119.44	93.43

Kentucky vs Notre Dame

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 10

Kentucky has a 88% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
Notre Dame	58.58	14.44	28.08	37.13	48.06	17.38	31.60	23.34	122.23	99.67

Michigan St. vs Louisville

Expected Outcome: Louisville by 1

Louisville has a 52% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Louisville	47.81	17.76	35.15	38.81	43.45	21.76	30.94	34.66	105.88	89.36
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07

Los Links: March 26th

Just a few links to some things I've thought were interesting.

The 21st Century is today: Boeing Patents Plasma Shields.  These shields likely wont come to fruition, in this first iteration anyways.  But its an exciting idea.

A Wooly Mammoth getting cloned?  I typically tend to side with the old man from Pet Semetary when this sort of question comes up: Sometimes Dead is Better.

24th century tech: The Tricorder makes its first appearance at SXSW.  Another big prize is producing results faster than we could hoped for. 

Sweet 16 Charts, Data, and Win%

For the Sweet 16, I've prepared some matchup visualizations and my win percentages for each game.  So far this tournament I'm at about 75% correct going straight by the numbers. It's not overly impressive but that's why this tournament gets the ratings. The unexpected happens early and often. That number also is slightly better accounting for my east bracket. Which has zero teams besides the okies left. Everywhere else is in good shape to get my final 4 in and I think Gonzaga has a much better shot with UCLA than they did Iowa State .  

The following outcomes are produced by my linear ratings system. 

For each game the charts (and accompanying tables) cover the basic 4 Factors that Dean Oliver emphasized (Effective Field Goal Percentage, Rebounding, Turnovers, and getting to the free throw line), as well as offensive and defensive rating. 

Arizona vs Xavier

Expected Outcome: Arizona by 7

Arizona 79% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Arizona	53.58	16.71	34.14	47.12	44.32	21.10	22.32	36.30	116.01	86.38
Xavier	53.02	17.98	31.34	38.11	50.24	19.25	27.14	34.44	111.89	96.11

Duke vs Utah

Expected Outcome: Duke by 1

Duke 53% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Utah	55.59	17.84	31.29	42.85	42.71	18.25	28.11	34.50	113.05	90.57

Gonzaga vs UCLA

Expected Outcome: Gonzaga by 10

Gonzaga 88% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Gonzaga	58.44	16.27	33.87	39.13	43.59	17.62	28.62	31.64	119.44	93.43
UCLA	49.38	17.48	33.83	36.33	48.69	18.50	28.10	32.74	110.20	97.38

Kentucky vs West Virginia

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 11

Kentucky 89% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
West Virginia	46.58	18.75	40.88	40.43	52.62	28.17	31.06	55.94	111.25	95.42

Louisville vs NC State

Expected Outcome:  Louisville by 3

Louisville 66% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Louisville	47.81	17.76	35.15	38.81	43.45	21.76	30.94	34.66	105.88	89.36
North Carolina St.	49.57	16.19	34.13	36.21	45.52	15.44	30.41	34.10	111.47	98.20

Michigan St. vs Oklahoma

Expected Outcome: Oklahoma by 4

Oklahoma has a 67% to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07
Oklahoma	49.41	17.66	30.90	32.66	43.72	20.17	31.49	28.92	109.32	88.91

North Carolina vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Wisconsin by 4

Wisconsin 68% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
North Carolina	51.40	18.17	39.93	34.73	45.33	17.77	30.50	37.62	115.26	95.04
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.26

Notre Dame vs Wichita St.

Expected Outcome: Notre Dame by 1

Notre Dame 55% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Notre Dame	58.58	14.44	28.08	37.13	48.06	17.38	31.60	23.34	122.23	99.67
Wichita St.	50.68	15.23	34.78	35.41	45.16	21.64	27.02	36.85	112.98	92.93

The Opening Salvo

I tried hard to come up with a catchy introduction for this place.  Some way to get it off to a proper start.  But every one that I tried just ended up sounding as goofy.   So instead I'm just going to start writing, and hope that I can catch a better rhythm as time goes on.

This blog is going to focus on the intersection of my two biggest interests, sports and math.  I've always been a sports fan, and I've always been good at math.  I didn't really start putting the two together though until my junior year at CU.  That's when I started with SABER stuff to try and do better in my fantasy baseball league.  By the next year I had started writing my own programs for predicting basketball spreads and doing small studies on the effects of rebounding on offenses.  Its grown and continued to get into football, and a little dabbling in hockey and baseball.  So, this is going to be my repository for my studies, findings, and a place to post results of random coding outings. 

Its also going to be a spot though for me to talk about my other passions, namely food and books, as well as anything else that really catches my fancy. 

So stick around, and hopefully you'll enjoy what I post.