Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Is the Victory 1 Star Destroyer Obsolete?

With the continued spoiling of Armada's Wave VI, we got the full specs of the Quasar class Carrier for the Imperials. The Quasar was seen mostly in the Star Wars Rebels animated show.  This new expansion is designed to give the Imperials something they've had already in their Victory Star Destroyers, but at a much more points efficient 54 or 61 point varieties.  The Quasar come standard with at least one weapons team and one offensive retrofit (double depending on the variety you choose).  Its native Squad 4 is the same as an ISD, and can easily be pushed to 5 for still just about half the points of an ISD1.  The titles for the ship are extremely synergistic, from being able to pull out a squadron command when you need it to obstructing every attack thrown at your Swarm fighters.




This of course, plays directly into the obsolescence of the famed Victory Class Star Destroyers, type 1.  The VSD comes standard in the Core Set for the Imperials, and for much of Waves 1 and 2 was a workhorse.  Not ever being super points efficient, 8 hull and good shields with Weapons Team slot and Offensive Retrofit made it the go to Imperial Carrier if taking the VSD1 variant.  The VSD2 has always lagged behind because of its cost, but it might see some time in the sun again following the release of Disposable Capacitors as a long range fire support ship. 

The VSD1 could take a beating from enemy ships and squads while still continuing to hand out squad commands, and when timed right had enough Engineering Points to keep itself on the board in crucial moments. However, kitting one out as a carrier racked up the points quickly, and for a ship that without the skilled commanding of Moff Jerjerrod could not keep its front guns pointed at the enemy without spending precious commands navigating, nor could it use its class leading 3 black dice easily.  It also didn't help that players typically had to forgo upgrades that would help even out the fickle Red Dice the VSD1 had at range to get the max from its carrier abilities.  Now we get the Quasar that could potentially have Flight Controllers, Expanded Hangar Bay, Boosted Comms and the Stronghold tittle for just 2 points more than the naked VSD1.

Even the Card art has it getting blown up

The Quasar suffers some of the same drawbacks the VSD1 has, namely if kitted for carrier duty it loses a lot of its chances to be a more efficient combat ship. It cannot take some of the better Weapons teams upgrades if its looking to up its fire rate (Gunnery Team) or even out its dice rolls (Veteran Gunners).  It also lacks the VSDs staying power, with its rather abysmal defense token suite and the low amount of shielding.  This one hurts since its unlikely to ever be able to really use its Boarding Teams upgrades before it gets shot up on approach. These drawbacks though don't really tilt things towards the VSD1 for maintaining its primary carrier roll.

If the VSD1's days of being the main fleet carrier, what role can it fill?  It still is a survivable gunship, and has a solid 3 Squad rating.  There is a chance with the External Racks upgrade that is forthcoming it could again work as a very good area denial piece.  But that's a niche role going forward, since the Gladiator fills a similar role for a relatively equal price and is more efficient of  a killing machine for the points..  It also is not nearly as good as say an Arquitens and Gozanti Cruiser for the same price in terms of fire support and overall fleet composition. 

Perhaps its lone spot will be with the Quasar, as the tank to soak up approaching fleets shots, and equipped with Veteran Gunners and Dual Turbolaser Turrets it could effectively support bombers with long range shots that hurt.  Its just not likely though that the VSD1 will see much time on the mat following the Quasar's release.

Friday, May 26, 2017

NBA Finals Predictions

The Finals are here.  Its the matchup that prognosticators have called for this entire season.  The question will be which set of All Stars will triumph?  The Warriors have swept everyone they've played so far, giving them several extra days of rest inbetween.  The Cavs have had just a single setback, coming against a red hot shooting Celtics team that wasn't able to sustain themselves without Iisaih Thomas for more than a short time.  Lets look at a few notes from the playoffs that might make a difference in this series.

  • Despite being know as an outside shooting team, the Warriors are actually taking far more shots inside the restricted zone than the Cavs.  Through both teams having played 12 playoff games, the totals stood at 282 attempts by the Cavs, 317 by the Warriors.  They both are proficient at it, hitting 65% of those shots.  
  • The Cavs live and die by Lebron, but Kevin Love has been exceptionally important this playoffs.  He leads the team in ORtg, and is tied with Lebron in net rating.
  • The Warriors have spread out the bench playing time a bit more than the Cavs, with only six players that have averaged more than 15 inutes per game in the playoffs.  The Cavs have 8, and thats with Lebron putting in over 40 per game.  
  • Of those players, the only Cav not to have a 60% True shooting rate is Kyrie Irving.  The Warriors have a pair of players with True Shooting under 50%, Klay Thompson and Andre Igudola. 


Golden State Warriors Series Wins: 0.90455
Cleveland Cavaliers Series Wins: 0.09545
Average Games Needed: 5



TeamEFg%Tov%OReb%FTRatedEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtgPace
Golden State Warriors56.413.220.522.848.513.520.174.9115.810499.8
Cleveland Cavaliers54.812.520.52251.611.517.475.7113.9110.396.2

The program does not look kindly on this series.  The Cavs defense has been the issue the whole season, and its been improved in the playoffs to a 105 mark.  And their offense has been even better, posting a 119 mark.  However the Warriors already solid D has been even better, all the way down to 99 points per 100 posessions, a mark that would have been the best in the league in the regular season. If Klay Thompson heats up, this prediction is probably closer to true than anyone in Cleveland would care to admit.  However, if Lebron and Love can continue to play this well and play defense to keep Klay down, they;ve got a shot.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Armada AA dice: Critical Effect

While discussing the recent dominance of fighters in the basic lay of Armada, the thought of how to improve AA fire from ships presents itself.  The most obvious change would be an errata from FFG changing the effect of the critical symbol to not be a miss, but rather to become a hit.  This would be a pretty substantial change, so lets look at what the odds tell us will happen.


We see a substantial uptick in the chance for damage on the standard blue die.  Double blue dice will almost never not do at least a single damage, and about 2/3 of the time are doing at two damage at all ranges.


Blue Black dice become much more solid, a 20% chance of one shotting a 3 Hull fighter. This would certainly help to make some of the other combat variants of the large ship a bit more viable.


Black Dice become murder dice at this point.  There is a 30% chance of doing 3 or more damage, and 70% of doing 2 or more.  Single blacks look pretty nice as well.


The newly introduced Red Die greatly benefits from the crit effect, going from a 60% chance of whiffing to 60% chance of doing some damage.

Its really the red die that kills this concept from ever happening.  The effect of increasing the damage from AA at this point is a bit too much of a swing I think back towards ships.  However, I could see an upgrade that does it at close range.  Maybe a re-work of PDR to expand change it would make it a usable upgrade instead of relegated to the bin. 




Tuesday, May 16, 2017

NBA Eastern Conference Finals

The Celtics, as the least feared 1 seed in modern memory, have advanced to the finals to challenge the Cavs.  It was a memorable series against the Wizards, going down to a game 7.  The Cavs on the other hand coasted through their series with the Raptors.  This series should be much more of a challenge and should give us a good series before the finals everyone has been expecting.


Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Boston Celtics Series Wins: 0.47854
Cleveland Cavaliers Series Wins: 0.52146
Average Games Needed: 6

TeamEFg%Tov%OReb%FTRatedEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtgPace
Boston Celtics52.512.322.121.250.412.622.275.2111.1108.796.7
Cleveland Cavaliers54.812.520.52251.611.517.475.7113.9110.396.2


Sunday, May 14, 2017

NBA Western Conference Finals

The Spurs were able to avoid a Game 7 matchup with the Rockets after one of the most bizarre outings James Harden has ever had in his career.  This means they get to start what should be an awesome series against the Warriors just that much sooner.  If Kawhi Leonard can't be near 100%, the Spurs chances will fall from the already low number they have. 


Golden State Warriors Vs San Antonio Spurs

Golden State Warriors Series Wins: 0.71627
San Antonio Spurs Series Wins: 0.28373
Average Games Needed: 6
 


TeamEFg%Tov%OReb%FTRatedEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtgPace
Golden State Warriors56.413.220.522.848.513.520.174.9115.810499.8
San Antonio Spurs52.512.521.123.849.113.519.377.7111.2103.494.3


Tuesday, May 9, 2017

FFG has a zombie problem

After being out of the loop for several weeks with the birth of my daughter, I checked in to the Armada World's tournament to see a startling sight.  Rieekan zombies bubbling up everywhere in the top half of the tournament and claimed three fourths of the Top 8 and Top 4 slots. Its even more concerning that an unconfirmed report said roughly half the field might have been Rieekan Aces.  Any time a top tournament sees such a massive domination by one archetype, it warrants game designers to look at what exactly is going on.  This archetype for those unfamiliar is a list with five activations.  Two of these are combat ships (Yavaris Neb B + either a Pelta or and AFMk2) and three flotillas to pad activations and support squadron play.  

The Zombie Lord himself


We first must examine how we came to this place over the past year since Rieekan was introduced to us.  The largest change since the General's introduction in the Star Wars Armada: MC30c Frigate Expansion , is the pure number of unique squadrons.  At his release, FFG had introduced only 9 unique squads through the Core, Rebel Fighters 1 and Rogues and Villains.  For the Worlds this year, that number had ballooned up to 21 possible fighters that could be involved.  This includes the nearly generic priced Unique squadrons from the Corellian Conflict. The number of excellent choices now for building a fighter wing of nearly all uniques to maximize the zombie ability makes Rieekan much more potent than before when there were just a handful of heavily overpriced uniques.  Going hand in hand with this explosion of fighters is the interaction between Flotillas and the new fighter keyword Relay.  Flotillas have become the most point efficient carrier in the game, and are easily the best methodology for delaying activation.  Relay also has allowed these carriers to sit far beyond the action, and face no sincere threat unless the opponent can either specialize a ship for hunting them down (H9 Turbolasers for instance) and possibly send it far afield.  This specialization is at best an even trade off against Rieekan Aces, because it effectively will remove that ship from doing anything besides chasing down flotillas.

What should FFG do to solve this issue?  Some argument can be made to wait for the next several waves to introduce counters to Rieekan (potentially the Quasar with its Red AA dice?) and force players from taking it.  The issue I see with this is the possibility of the spiral affect with these lists.  Introducing a hard counter to it just means that list becomes the meta archetype.  A reddit thread has suggested its time to ban Relay and potentially other cards in this combination.  This is unlikely to happen in Armada, especially after FFG just released Relay in this last wave of Fighter expansions.  The answer to me seems to be in a few potential places.  First, is Rieekan should not affect squadrons.  Its a hard nerf, but I still believe it allows him to be a useful commander, just not overly powerful in comparison to every other Rebel Commander.  A second suggestion (that I feel is for the good of the game regardless) is to reduce the squadron value of the GR75 by 1.  It still can operate as an excellent support, but not the best carrier in the game fr its points.  A tird option is requiring the Relay fighter to be in activation range of the ship that is using Relay.  The keyword is still a powerful distance buff, especially with Boosted Comms.  A final solution in errata is to increase the capability of AA fire from ships.  Allow Crits to count as damage at all times against fighters.  This is a fairly dramatic change, but it would give ships a real chance at surviving a bombing run.

Several of the above changes affect more than the Rieekan Aces lists.  But, besides one changing Rieekan himself other fighter based lists will likely have to be moved down a peg on the power curve to balance the game.  I think FFG will act fairly quickly to counter these lists as they did with both Imperial Assault and X Wing when strong Archetypes began to dominate tournaments to such a degree the game felt very stale. I'm hopeful its already been a bit in the works, and that was part of what had delayed the FAQ for so long, and that they are able to give us a re-balance between fighter carrier wings and ships battling it out with turbolasers.