NBA Finals Predictions

The Finals are here.  Its the matchup that prognosticators have called for this entire season.  The question will be which set of All Stars will triumph?  The Warriors have swept everyone they've played so far, giving them several extra days of rest inbetween.  The Cavs have had just a single setback, coming against a red hot shooting Celtics team that wasn't able to sustain themselves without Iisaih Thomas for more than a short time.  Lets look at a few notes from the playoffs that might make a difference in this series.

• Despite being know as an outside shooting team, the Warriors are actually taking far more shots inside the restricted zone than the Cavs.  Through both teams having played 12 playoff games, the totals stood at 282 attempts by the Cavs, 317 by the Warriors.  They both are proficient at it, hitting 65% of those shots.  
• The Cavs live and die by Lebron, but Kevin Love has been exceptionally important this playoffs.  He leads the team in ORtg, and is tied with Lebron in net rating.
• The Warriors have spread out the bench playing time a bit more than the Cavs, with only six players that have averaged more than 15 inutes per game in the playoffs.  The Cavs have 8, and thats with Lebron putting in over 40 per game.  
• Of those players, the only Cav not to have a 60% True shooting rate is Kyrie Irving.  The Warriors have a pair of players with True Shooting under 50%, Klay Thompson and Andre Igudola. 

Golden State Warriors Series Wins: 0.90455
Cleveland Cavaliers Series Wins: 0.09545
Average Games Needed: 5

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Golden State Warriors	56.4	13.2	20.5	22.8	48.5	13.5	20.1	74.9	115.8	104	99.8
Cleveland Cavaliers	54.8	12.5	20.5	22	51.6	11.5	17.4	75.7	113.9	110.3	96.2

The program does not look kindly on this series.  The Cavs defense has been the issue the whole season, and its been improved in the playoffs to a 105 mark.  And their offense has been even better, posting a 119 mark.  However the Warriors already solid D has been even better, all the way down to 99 points per 100 posessions, a mark that would have been the best in the league in the regular season. If Klay Thompson heats up, this prediction is probably closer to true than anyone in Cleveland would care to admit.  However, if Lebron and Love can continue to play this well and play defense to keep Klay down, they;ve got a shot.