Friday, March 31, 2017

NCAA Final 4 Win Rates and Championship Predictions

We're set for the Final 4, and as the charts earlier this week showed we're expecting a UNC-Gonzaga matchup.  The total model gives the chances for each team to win the title below

Overwhelmingly the program thinks its the Zags year.  Almost 46% of the simulations have them winning the title, compared to rough;y 25% and 23% for their foes from the other side of the bracket.  The Gamecocks actually have a much beter tchance than I would have expected, coming in at about 8%.  

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

NBA Power Rankings March 29th

The NBA regular season is about to come to a close, and we've got a bit of drama on going into the playoffs.  The Warriors who had been presumed to have flat lined after the Durant injury have surged back up to nearly top the West both in season long projections and since the trade deadline.  The gap though between Golden State and Houston though as been narrowed quite a bit, and might actually lead to a real series.  At the bottom of the West the Nuggets took a step back, while the Blazers look to secure a playoff spot after a great week, and a fairly easy stretch down the end. 

In the East, the Raptors and Celtics have both taken advantage of a Cavs team that looks beat and tired.  This of course doesn't mean the Cavs aren't still the likely favorite in the East, but without any real defensive presence in the middle they're going to have to get creative to defend their title. 







Tuesday, March 28, 2017

NCAA Final 4 charting

We've come to the Final Four, and its certainly not the group we had been expecting.  Gonzaga and North Carolina most folks could have seen entering this realm, but Oregon was a long shot especially after losing Chris Boucher in the PAC12 tournament.  Broucher was the rim protector the Ducks needed, recording a 12% block rate.  Even more surprising though is the Gamecocks of South Carolina.  This is a team that ranks 299th by Ken Pomeroy's ratings for effective field goal percentage, and commits a ton of fouls (45.3 rate of Free throws attempted to field goals attempted).  Their lock down defense though forced Baylor to go 14-43 from two point range in this tournament.

Gonzaga vs South Carolina

Gonzaga Wins by 7
Gonzaga Wins 78% of matchups



TeamEFg%Tov%OReb%FTRatedEFg%dTov%DoReb%dFTRateORtgDRtg
Gonzaga57.31630.338.641.617.725.325.6119.687.3
South Carolina47.118.63439.945.524.531.346.3107.588.8


While South Carolina has lived by their ability to frustrate shooters, Gonzaga has been able to do the same but also can also light up a scoreboard.   South Carolina has run on great defense and some timely scoring, but its unlikely to hold on here.


North Carolina vs Oregon

North Carolina Wins by1
North Carolina Wins 51% of matchups


TeamEFg%Tov%OReb%FTRatedEFg%dTov%DoReb%dFTRateORtgDRtg
North Carolina52.116.542.233.348.418.924.730.7121.293.9
Oregon55.817.132.934.946.619.829.926.2118.894.8

 This game should be a tight one.  Oregon is a bit more efficient in their shooting (on both ends), but UNC is a bit more efficient on a per possession basis.  Its a toss up, but I do think the Tar Heels can get it done, since they should be better on the boards without Boucher there and allow Kennedy Meeks inside to really do some damage.

Monday, March 27, 2017

Corellian Conflict Campaign Thoughts

So, we were able to conclude our Corellian Conflict Campaign with the Imperials striking forth a solid victory, winning the last four matches to get it after winning just three in the first eight.  It was a tough fought campaign, and was a whole lot of fun.  My group and I are really hoping for another campaign setting in this next year for the game, since it was such a different style of play.  Going to 500 points as well allowed a lot of flexibility in fleet building, and really let the Interdictor shine as a ship.  The home rules we came up with I think all worked well, and I really enjoyed the thematic hyperspace rules.

Our group never really found any issue with timing (besides my third round game with my friend who sat his MC80 Liberty at speed 0 until Turn 4 to avoid engagement).  We still stuck in our typical roughly two and a half hour time frame for casual play.  I honestly think I could see this becoming a much more popular format for tournaments without having to change the length to a great degree.

As to actual game play, things were a little mixed.  Diplomats were basically useless in our four person game (2v2).  It helped to keep a few of the high cost  systems out of hand but it didn't make a huge difference. Skilled spacers as well was just a little disappointing because of its lack of use. However the spy net was awesome. My campaign partner used it to great affect when he defended Corellia by baiting some really bad deployment from his opponent and then shifting out of it. I cannot say how great spy nets are. The repair yards likely helped keep the least experienced member of our campaign in it, because he lost several ships every game. They are probably the most important areas to control.

We did find the base assault missions to be brutal. Fighter wing is a huge boost especially to rebel bomber fleets, as grabbing either 3 A wings and a Z95 go help fight in or 3 more Xwing squads to do some extra bombing work as well almost turned the game against me when I was attacking Sabehering. Planetary Ion Cannons was beastly. The regular objective is tough, but with Intel in the base defense version you can routinely get a four blue dice attack almost every turn.

The only thing we found that really didn't work though was the money system scaling.  With three players per side, the money seems like it would be a little tight each turn.  With just two though, after a couple of conservative rounds I had my fleet to 500 points and was starting to rake in extras.   It just didn't ave the tense feeling I was reading about in some other people's games. 

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Elite 8 Charts- Part 1

Fr the first par of our Elite 8 games we have a pair of great matchups.  The nation's best team consistently through the regular season and into the tournament has been Gonzaga.  They're taking on this year's Cinderella Xavier, a team that has slain a very good Florida State squad and then capitalized on some Arizona mistakes to take them out.  This could be a tough matchup because Xavier draws ore fouls and is a bit better on the offensive glass.  The program doesnt like their chances, but this likely will be a battle

Gonzaga vs Xavier

Gonzaga Wins by7
Gonzaga Wins 79% of matchups









TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Gonzaga57.31630.338.641.617.725.325.6119.687.3
Xavier52.218.634.941.551.517.72533.611699.1



KU has been the team that leaves you worrying at halftime, and then by 5 minutes left in the second half is up by 15 and pulling away.  Against Oregon though a slow start could bury them.  

Kansas vs Oregon

Kansas Wins by1
Kansas Wins 55% of matchups

TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Kansas56.317.834.136.247.718.529.730.7121.894.9
Oregon55.817.132.934.946.619.829.926.2118.894.8

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

NBA Power Rankings March 22nd

You think they're on the ropes, but the Warriors had a very strong week to quiet the doubts that had crept in about their play.  They're numbers are back up, and they embarrassed the Thunder and Mavs, as well as easily blowing past the Bucks and Magic.  The Cavs slipped a bit this week while they've become embroiled in a "scandal" that is hurting the league all over, in sitting star players on a given night in prime time.  The players might like it, but its going to affect the next round of television negotiations, and they will lose money.



Tuesday, March 21, 2017

NCAA Sweet 16 Charts

Back to the Sweet 16 we've now come.  The tournament this year didn't see a ton of upsets in the first round, but the second saw last year's champs tossed out by a good Wisconsin team, and saw Xavier demolish a very solid Florida State squad.  The program likes the favorites all to advance to the Elite 8, although we will see if Florida is able to contain the Badgers without John Egbunu, who really anchored that squad. 


Arizona vs Xavier

Arizona Wins by 4
Arizona Wins 69% of matchups





















TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Arizona53.816.73341.247.517.526.128.6118.494.8
Xavier52.218.634.941.551.517.72533.611699.1
















Baylor vs South Carolina

Baylor wins by3
South Carolina wins 64% of matchups


TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Baylor53.120.54033.845.916.929.329.7118.293
South Carolina47.118.63439.945.524.531.346.3107.588.8




Butler vs North Carolina

North Carolina wins by3
North Carolina wins 63% of matchups


TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Butler54.815.127.337.250.419.826.836.3117.896.7
North Carolina52.116.542.233.348.418.924.730.7121.293.9


Florida vs Wisconsin

Florida wins by 5
Florida wins 70% of matchups


TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Florida51.716.831.940.545.321.129.232.8116.688.5
Wisconsin51.916.935.832.347.419.625.527.5114.891.8





Gonzaga vs West Virginia

Gonzaga wins by 2
GOnzaga wins 56% of matchups


TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Gonzaga57.31630.338.641.617.725.325.6119.687.3
West Virginia51.816.937.738.648.927.73241.8117.290.2






Kansas vs Purdue

Kansas wins by 3
Kansas wins 59% of matchups




TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Kansas56.317.834.136.247.718.529.730.7121.894.9
Purdue55.818.230.933.647.116.724.122.5117.593.1


Kentucky vs UCLA

Kentucky wins by 2
Kentucky wins 59% of matchups


TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Kentucky5315.933.741.747.119.127.433.511991.8
UCLA59.81529.126.948.51628.525.3124.2100.1



Oregon vs Michigan

Oregon wins by 7
Oregon wins 75% of matchups


TeamEFg%Tov%FTRateOReb%dEFg%dTov%dFTRateDReb%ORtgDRtg
Michigan57.114.325.230.651.919.930.427.212399.8
Oregon55.817.132.934.946.619.829.926.2118.894.8