Week 5 is a slightly smaller slate, and there are a lot of chances for blowouts this week. Although we do get some fun matchups with Miss. State heading to Auburn, Utah hosting Wazzu and K-State Oklahoma State looking to be very close.
| Home Team | Home Team Win Chance | Away Team | Away Team Win Chance | Home Margin |
| Memphis | 45.36 | Navy | 54.64 | -1.5 |
| California | 42.81 | Arizona State | 57.19 | -2.2 |
| Virginia Tech | 31.69 | Duke | 68.31 | -5.7 |
| Maryland | 35.16 | Penn State | 64.84 | -4.8 |
| Air Force | 89.98 | San Jose State | 10.02 | 15.7 |
| Massachusetts | 21.52 | Akron | 78.48 | -9.6 |
| Western Kentucky | 25.32 | Alabama-Birmingham | 74.68 | -8.0 |
| Texas A&M | 96.4 | Arkansas | 3.6 | 22.1 |
| Troy | 58.93 | Arkansas State | 41.07 | 2.6 |
| Toledo | 62.68 | Brigham Young | 37.32 | 4.0 |
| Miami(OH) | 41.09 | Buffalo | 58.91 | -2.9 |
| Western Michigan | 88.02 | Central Michigan | 11.98 | 14.0 |
| Marshall | 54.21 | Cincinnati | 45.79 | 1.3 |
| North Carolina | 5.79 | Clemson | 94.21 | -19.2 |
| Appalachian State | 93.57 | Coastal Carolina | 6.43 | 18.2 |
| Utah State | 85.07 | Colorado State | 14.93 | 12.5 |
| Central Florida | 99.3 | Connecticut | 0.7 | 30.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 99.1 | Delaware | 0.9 | 29.1 |
| Old Dominion | 27.34 | East Carolina | 72.66 | -7.5 |
| Charlotte | 25.18 | Florida Atlantic | 74.82 | -8.3 |
| New Mexico State | 22.75 | Fresno State | 77.25 | -8.9 |
| Temple | 78.35 | Georgia Tech | 21.65 | 9.6 |
| Nevada | 23.15 | Hawaii | 76.85 | -8.8 |
| Syracuse | 98.78 | Holy Cross | 1.22 | 27.3 |
| North Texas | 28.65 | Houston | 71.35 | -6.9 |
| Michigan State | 74.72 | Indiana | 25.28 | 8.1 |
| Baylor | 69.16 | Iowa State | 30.84 | 6.0 |
| Texas Christian | 89.53 | Kansas | 10.47 | 14.9 |
| Oklahoma State | 47.36 | Kansas State | 52.64 | -0.8 |
| South Carolina | 45.96 | Kentucky | 54.04 | -1.2 |
| Georgia Southern | 8.32 | Louisiana | 91.68 | -16.8 |
| Rice | 55.85 | Louisiana Tech | 44.15 | 1.9 |
| Iowa | 95.71 | Middle Tennessee State | 4.29 | 20.5 |
| Purdue | 43.49 | Minnesota | 56.51 | -2.1 |
| Alabama | 98.51 | Mississippi | 1.49 | 26.4 |
| Auburn | 55.94 | Mississippi State | 44.06 | 1.7 |
| Wyoming | 76.64 | Nevada-Las Vegas | 23.36 | 8.9 |
| Liberty | 71.83 | New Mexico | 28.17 | 7.1 |
| Texas State | 81.29 | Nicholls State | 18.71 | 10.8 |
| Florida State | 60.3 | North Carolina State | 39.7 | 3.2 |
| Vanderbilt | 49.43 | Northern Illinois | 50.57 | -0.2 |
| Wisconsin | 92.99 | Northwestern | 7.01 | 17.8 |
| Nebraska | 5.6 | Ohio State | 94.4 | -19.3 |
| Michigan | 98.07 | Rutgers | 1.93 | 25.3 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 81.42 | South Alabama | 18.58 | 11.0 |
| Washington | 62.25 | Southern California | 37.75 | 3.8 |
| South Florida | 29.83 | Southern Methodist | 70.17 | -6.5 |
| Oregon State | 48.68 | Stanford | 51.32 | -0.4 |
| Oklahoma | 85.84 | Texas Tech | 14.16 | 12.8 |
| Southern Mississippi | 97.2 | Texas-El Paso | 2.8 | 22.9 |
| Florida | 99.93 | Towson | 0.07 | 37.3 |
| Arizona | 50.19 | UCLA | 49.81 | 0.1 |
| Notre Dame | 75.73 | Virginia | 24.27 | 8.4 |
| Boston College | 10.99 | Wake Forest | 89.01 | -14.9 |
| Utah | 56.3 | Washington State | 43.7 | 1.8 |
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