NBA Finals Predictions

The NBA Finals are back with the same match up for a third year in a row.  Color me a bit unexcited as really the worst Cavs team now matches up against the same basic Warriors team from last year. 

Warriors win 67% of the time in 6 games

The program really does not give the Cavs much of a chance here.  Sure, they'll likely steal a couple because Lebron will do Lebron things, but that's pretty much it.  The Cavs have had a couple of players step up at different times throughout these playoffs, but its been the unmitigated hero ball of Lebron that has salvaged what should have been a wrecked season. 

The Warriors will likely try to keep up the pace that theyve run at this post season, averaging almost 100 possessions a game.  The Cavs have been a little bit better than the Warriors in transition this playoffs, posting a 131 ORtg, but noone has been better than the Warriors at defending those shots, which tilts it back to the Warriors favor.  The biggest struggle for the Cavs will be if their Guards can match up.  The Warriors guards have had the best Ast-Turonver Ratio so far these playoffs, and the Cavs guards are posting a pretty meh 107 Drtg for their own. 

NBA PLayoffs: Conference Finals

Already to the Conference Finals after what ended up being a bit of a set of blowouts.  In the Wets, the Jazz and Rockets both cruised through their series against the upstart Jazz and Pelicans.  The Celtics downed their own upstart in the Sixers, while the Cavs demolished the Raptors, who played terribly in transition.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

Rockets win Series 66% of the time in 6 games

Can the Rockets get over their hump?  Can they stop us from having a third straight Cavs-Warriors finals?  The question in this series is likely to be who can get that extra stop on defense.  So far, The Warriors have been a bit better in defensive efficiency, posting the only sub 100 defensive rating in these playoffs.  The Warriors offense has been a step off in efficiency, but thats with a banged up Steph Curry.  If he can get back to his usual self (he's about 5% fewer 3s, and about 4 points off his PER form last year) it will be very hard for the Rockets.  But, he has been banged up.  And James Harden so far has been a killer, with a 55% TS rate, and just a 10% turnover rate.  

 

Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavs win Series 54% of the time in 7 games

 I didn't think the Cavs had a chance to advance this year.  But now, they've gotten rested and have a good chance to get to another Finals.  The biggest change in this last series besides the Raptors inability to convert in transition was the rest of the starters play.  Noone shot under 55% TS, and they all had a net rating of over 14.  That took the full pull off Lebron, and the team looked ready to make a run.  The Celtics though will give them a run.  They stymied the Sixers young core, and did it by shooting at 56.3% TS, and by running at a slightly higher pace.  Jaylen Brown has been good in these playoffs to help lead the team, kepeing his turnover rate to just 8% while shooitng at 57.8%.

What happened to Toronto?

After what was a grueling 7 game series for the Cavs to open against the Pacers, Lebron James said he was too tired to even think about the Raptors.  The Cavs had been harried and outside of Lebron carrying the team for 7 games had looked like a team contending for the first overall pick rather than a championship.

So, when the series started against the Raptors, I was confident this was Toronto's year. But after four games, two of them basically non competitive from the Raptors, Lebron and company are heading back to the Eastern Conference finals and now get some much needed rest.  The question is, what happened to the Raptors?  In games 1 and 3 they were actually more efficient shooters than the Cavs, but couldn't win those tight games. 

The biggest issue was overall defensive efficiency.  During the regular season, the Raptors posted a top five DRtg, 103.4.  Against the Cavs though, they got torched to the tune of a 121.5 rating.  That's the worst for any series so far in these playoffs.  While the Raptors were efficient shooters, the Cavs hit just about everything they wanted outside of game one, posting above 60% true shooting rates and high 50s.

It didn't help either that the Raptors pair of All Star caliber guards and Fred Vanfleet were brutalized a bit by the Cavs back court.  Demar and Lowry combined to shoot just 49% this series, with them providing a -24 +/-.  You cant win series when your stars are being out dueled by JR Smith and George Hill. The fact that the Raptors front court also provided -15 as well ended any chance they had to win the series.  

The biggest factor though was in how effective team's were in transition.  The Raptors had 59 attempts when the shot clock was between 18-22 seconds, the fast break area.  They made 34 of those field goals, including 8 threes.  The Cavs however had just 38 attempts, but made 27 of them and hit 7 threes.  If the Raptors had been just a  little more efficient there, this series is a completely different story for them.The Raptors weren't the fastest team in the elague in termsof pace, but the games slowed down in this series, hitting about 90 possessions or so.  That favored the Cavs and Lebron who were coming off a long series.  The Raptors needed to push and hit shots in transition to make the Cavs work, and wear them down even more. 

Overall this is likely the end for this iteration of the Raptors.  They have a lot of holes, especially in the front court where they will need to find some way of getting more production to help Rozen and Lowry.  Its too bad that this was their best chance yet to escape the Cavs, and the couldn't.

Fantasy Flight Games Hyper Space Report: Wild Speculation

SO Fantasy Flight Games has been tempting us with a big news report for all of their Star Wars properties before they kick off the World's events for those games.  The announcement two weeks beforehand has left a lot of time for what they're going actually be delivering for the games, and whether or not its going to be the "Something Big" they've been promising Armada players since GenCon last year. 

I've got a few guesses as to what FFG has up their sleeve for Armada, Legion and Imperial Assault.  I haven't played X-Wing in anything more than a dust off game with friends or anything more from Destiny than the original starter boxes, so I don't really have any pulse on the direction of those games.

Legion

I think after the deluge of info FFG has had for Legion this will be a small announcement for available products.  Likely the next Imperial Commander and their SPecial Forces, as well as with the announcement today of the organized play layout a rules reference update.  I'm going to guess the next commander will either be is going to be either Wulf Yularen, Cassius Tagge, or one of FFG's created properties like Kayn Somos.  Most of the best canon battles had nameless leaders and it focused on space battles.  Ground commanders are thin.  I also think they will wait a bit for Thrawn, since he is likely going to be a buffing commander like Veers.  The Scout Troopers are going to be the unit that gets revealed, since the FFG staff have all but actually spoiled it.

Armada

Armada is due for another wave announcement.  A lot of folks think it wil be an SSD, kicking off epic play for the game.  I am not so certain.  X-Wing epic play really has not generated much interest an the scale doesn't fit for Armada.  We already have 3x6 field.  Epic play requiring something like 6x6 or 6x12 would be impossible to find.  I think instead, its going to be something a little different.  I think we're getting a second campaign, one centered on the Death Star.  The time frame will begin around Rogue One and end with The battle of Yavin. I think it will incorporate more small scale and 500 point battles as both sides try to raid resources and the like. It will come with U-Wings and a few different ship variants for core and wave 1 ships.  With the changes to Gallant Haven and the continued low turnout for VSDs, some new variants could really energize these ships.

I have an outside guess that FFG will also raise the standard game point limit to 450 points. Some people think that will slow games down. I actually think it speeds it up, if you keep fighters capped. Squadrons take time in this game. Extra ships means more guns on targets and things go down faster.

Imperial Assault

I think the biggest announcement is coming for IA.  Theyll start with working through the latest Lothal announcement since we didnt get anything for skirmish spoiled yet.  Then a few new campaigns for the Heroes of the Alliance will be announced. The app has had several updates in the past couple months, including adding support for all hero packs. Then I believe the big news will drop: a new updated version 2.0. It will not include new map tiles, but instead will have several updated deployment cards for older units like regular storm troopers and Boba Fett. With Jabbas Realm shifting the power curve super high, these old units have been relegated to strictly campaign play.

All Properties
For all of their table top properties I think something big is brewing. They've started experimenting with Legion some of the different organized play campaigns. I think FFG could bring all their games together for something similar.  A massive galactic conquest. Maybe it runs for 2 months and stores act as planets. Different games score points for control of the store, or they fit a larger narrative.

This is all wild speculation of course. But it's fun to think of the future for these games I really love to play and obsess a bit about. 

NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Matchups

I'll go ahead and edit this post later, but with the Pelicans and Warriors kicking off tomorrow, I wanted to get them done.  And since every other series looks like it could go a little bit further, theres no reason not to start looking at these two teams.

-EDIT: Updated with all of the remaining series, including the fact that the Rockets won yesterday.  Sorry I didnt get this up then, but I misread the schedule and thought they were playing the late night game.

Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans:

Pelicans win Series 53.2% of the time in 7 games 

 

The program did not do a great job with these teas in the first round.  The Warriors looked much more energized then they had the waning weeks of the season, and the Spurs had no 2nd half answers without Leonard in the line up.  The Pelicans flat out dominated their series, posting the best TS rate of anyone in the first round, coming in at 61%.  Interestingly, the Warriors were the much better team on the boards, snagging 80% of their defensive rebounds, which could become a key in this series.  We should also see Steph back.  However, the program can't forget that the Warriors have been hobbled, and noone else should either.  The Pelicans have run a lot of tempo in these playoffs, Neither team has been very good at stopping opposing players in the paint, ranking 25th and 26th.  The Pelicans though all season have reliably gone to Anthony Davis there to score a lot of points.   It wouldn't surpise me if this series ended up going 7 games, but I'm a little more sure on the Warriors with Steph than the Pelicans.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets:

Rockets win Series 71.2% of the time in 5 games 

This was probably going to be my highlight matchup of these playoffs but with Ricky Rubio getting his hamstring pulled in the finale against the Thunder, this series might end up much more shallow.  The Jazz have been one of the best defensive teams all season, posting the second best defensive rating this season at 101.6.  The Rockets had been the leagues second most efficient offense, 112.1 rating to go with a 59% TS rate. This model does include the fact that the Rockets already won game 1, but the Jazz's defense has been so good and their offense fairly efficient so the program still sees some hope for them.

Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers:

Raptors win Series 82.5% of the time in 5 games 

The Cavs were able to finally get past the Pacers in a taught 7 game series, in which if just a few shots fell against them the columns would already be flowing about Lebron James' next stop would be.  James though was super man in this series, with a 65.5% TS rate, 15% rebound rate, and a league leading 26.8 PIE for players that are starters in the playoffs.  The rest of the starters have been basically non-existent, especially Kevin Love and JR Smith.  Against a Raptors squad that has the second best offensive efficiency so far in the playoffs and a middle ground defensive efficiency, this wont cut it.  But Lebron is still amazing, so he might be able to pull it off.  He's been ridden hard already though, and with Fred Van Fleet over his injury, the Raptors second unit is going to apply a lot of pressure.

Boston Celtics vs New Philadelphia 76ers:

76ers win Series 81.4% of the time in 5 games 

The Sixers are looking like the class of the East currently, dispatching the Heat in impressive fashion (3 of 4 wins by double digit points) and with the best Net Rating of teams in the east through the opening round.  They last played a week ago, so there could be some rust.  But the Celtics starters have now played the most minutes of any starting unit besides the now defeated Pacers and Jazz (who have an extra game done now).  Al Horford so far has carried the load for the Celtics, posting a 15.4 PIE and a 66.9% TS rate, but his defensive efficiency has been pretty bad, at 107.3).  He'll have his hands full with the Sixers helping to guard Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.  JJ Reddick has also been hot so far, hitting 56% of his threes so far.  The Sixers play with a lot of pace as well, so this series could be short if the Celtics have to keep their starters in.

Denver Broncos Drafting since 2013: Has it been that bad?

This week, there has been a lot of focus on Denver's track record in the NFL draft under John Elway.  Rich Hribar posted a tweet story detailing how every team has stacked up so far since 2013, and Denver is one of only three teams without a pro bowler during that time, and has one of the lowest rates of starts from their drafted players.  One of the most damning charts though was a relationship between number of picls and their collective Approximate Value ( a metric by Pro Football Reference).  Denver had was the furthest down and to the left of team's in the league.  his meant Denver hasn't had a ton of picks, and they've scored low on that AV chart.

The question that MHR and several twitter followers posed then is when does this mkae a difference for Elway and his accountability?  This is a good question to ask. But it first requires a delve into how some of these teams that have done better have done it, and why Denver might have fallen behind.

The AV chart from Rich Hribar @LordReebs on twitter

The first step is to examine the Average Value metric.  A series of Blog Posts breaks down AV fully, but its enough to say that it gives a score based on points per drive and the league average thereof to each player based on their contribution.  This metric is a good baseline, but its always going to suffer a little bit because it favors teams that are just better rounded, since the base score is based on how many points the team scores (or on defense, allows). Joe Thomas of the Browns for example, had just a  few seasons scoring into the highest elite category, despite being one of the best Left Tackles in the modern era. 


One of the reasons why Denver has been so shallow on this area has been because from 2013 until after the 2015 season, Denver was fairly veteran heavy.  2013 the team had just 4 rookies make an appearance, and two of them were RBs who were blocked out by Knowshon Moreno and the previously drafted Ronnie Hillman.   The top end of the roster was just filled with guys either entering their prime or just nearing the end.  For instance, Bradley Roby has accrued just 10 career AV points, but he had been trapped behind the best CB duo in the league for 4 years of his career.  Looking at a team like the Jags, who come out n the best section of this chart, they've had their picks make 60% of their possible starts.  Denver has had them start at just 37% of their game appearances. It has also helped Denver that some of their contributing young players were found outside the draft.  CJ Anderson, Shaq Barrett, and Todd Davis were all undrafted players that have contributed a lot over the course of their careers so far.

One of the big spots it seems that has also derailed Denver's draft potential is injuries.  Look at Ty Sambraillo, a tackle that got the starting nod after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2015.  After 3 games however, he suffered a torn Labrium and was done for the year.  This injury causes all kinds of setbacks to development, especially with the NFL's limited practice times.  He then lost several more games in 2016 to an elbow injury, and never looked quite right.  Other notables in this category were Shane Ray, Montee Ball, Devontae Booker, Jeff Heuerman, Cody Latimer all missed more than three games with various injuries in more than one season.

Another contributing factor has been the number of top 50 picks during that time.  These are are the picks you would expect to be establishing themselves early on the roster, and playing a big role.  For example, the Rams have had 8 players in that section to Denver's 5.  These 8 players have accounted for 55.8% of the Rams AV over this period.  Its been even worse for Denver, since they've had no pick earlier than 20.  Something the Rams have had 6 of.

This isnt to say everything has been sunny for Denver's picks.  They've overspent some draft capital on players like Cody Latimer that while regarded well at the time of the draft, were guys that I really cant see why they were well thought of.  Denver has also whiffed on basically every offensive lineman theyve taken besides Matt Paradis.  Sambraillo, Schofield, Vinston Painter and Max Garcia have all failed to be high end offensive linemen for the team.  The biggest failure though might have been the miss on Paxton Lynch.  If you look at every team in the good zone, they have a QB that has contributed quite a bit of AV.  Paxton was a project when he came in, but he's failed to develop in his two years so far to a point where you might have faith he could turn it around.

Overall I think the problem hasnt been so much on Denver's evaluation of players, but rather of development and playing time.  Denver needs to continue to solidify the offensive line, and get some depth to the defensive front seven. If they can do that, the next several years will likely see that career AV go up, as the team moves back to a younger team with players getting more play time.

NBA Playoffs 1st Round so far

Everyone has completed the first leg of the playoffs, and now teams travel to their next set of games at the lower seeds home.  The Jazz, Heat and Pacers were all successful in breaking home court advantage early, while the Blazers completely gave it away to the Pelicans.

Toronto vs Washington: The Raptors have cruised through their first two games, posting a 119.4 Ortg and posting the best TS% rate so far in the playoffs.  The Wizards outside of John Wall have generated almost no free throws, and Bradley Beal so far has gone 11-28 in the series, with just 3 attempts.

Boston vs Milwaukee:  The Bucks have kept games close, posting good true shooting numbers.  But last game they hit just 41$ of their free throws.  Thats been the difference so far, along with with Celtics cleaning up on the offensive glass (22.7% to the Bucks 16%)

Philadelphia vs Miami: We had a vintage Dwayne Wade game in game 2, going 1/17 and posting a 71.7% TS.  James Johnson also chipped in going 7/7 with a pair of threes and 5 assists.  The Sixers really need Embiid back soon if the Heat can continue to play solid defense on Ben Simmons and Marco Belinelli.

Cleveland vs Indiana: The Pacers have been the better looking team so far against the Cavs, forcing them into turnovers and a negative net rating.  If Victor Oladipo doesn't go 2-8 in game 2 from the three point line, the Cavs could have found themselves down in an 0-2 hole.  Lebron James has been impressive throughout though, dragging the Cavs with a 46 point performance last night.

Houston vs Minnesota: The Rockets are looking a little shaky in their first round match up, giving a bit of pause as to whether their brand of basketball does translate to the post season.  However Chris Paul was able to efficiently pick up where James Harden fell off this year, and the Rockets were able to force the Wolves into going just 5-18 from beyond 3.

Golden State vs San Antonio: Despite the program's glowing reviews for the SPurs in this seres, they've been unable to finish either game away from home.The Warriors D has held the SPurs to 50.8 and 51.4% TS performances, while Klay Thompson has been a killer in the series so far. 

Portland vs New Orleans: The Pelicans have smothered the Blazers, allowing a TS rate of just 49.6.  The Pelicans arent fouling either, allowing under 10% of field goals to generate a free throw.  As the series moves back to New Orleans, this looks like it might be a sweep.

Oklahoma City vs Utah: The Jazz had been the best second half team this season, but allowed the Thunder to get to a 115 Ortg, something that hadn't allowed in months.  They got back to basics though in game 2, and Ricky Rubio lead the way with Derrick Favors on offense, as Rubio had 9 assist to just 1 turnover and went 5/8 from beyond the arc.  The Jazz should have a decent chance moving forward.