NBA Power Rankings April 5th

The NBA Playoffs are right around the corner, and we're seeing a few teams jockeying for position atop both leagues.  The Raptors and Wizards both had rough weeks in the East, while the much maligned Cavs actually recovered a bit by beating up on teams they're supposed to beat.  In the West, the Thunder have moved themselves into a position to likely be facing the red hot Rockets in the first round.  It also appears that the demise of the Warriors was far too early, as they have now been playing the best basketball since the trade deadline, despite missing Kevin Durant. 

For the 8 spot in the West, we have an intriguing race between the Nuggets and the Blazers.  Denver has 5 games to go, and is a half game back.  They face two top 10 teams, the Rockets and Thunder (whom they play twice), as well as the improved Pelicans and awful Mavs.  The Blazers have the easier route it looks like, but they face the very hot (and under talked about) Jazz, a T Wolves team that they just lost to, the Spurs and the same Pelicans team to end the season.  It will be very interesting to see who comes out on top there.

In the East there is some similar drama, with the Bulls, Pacers, Heat and Hornets all are with a game and a half of each other.  The Hornets have had a strong week, but have to beat the Heat tonight to have a shot.  The Bulls have the easiest schedule, playing the Nets twice, the Sixers once and the bumbling Magic as well.  The Pacers schedule is also well layed out, but they have to play the solid Bucks and Hawks in this stretch as well.

NCAA Championship Charts

The end of the 2016-2017 NCAA Men's seaosn plays out tomorrow night, with two of the more storied squads of the past decade making an appearance.  Gonzaga is a firt timer to the final dance, making a great run through a bracket that was filled with upstart teams.  The Tar Heels make it after clipping an agressive Oregon team and playing in a very tough ACC. 

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DoReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Gonzaga	57.3	16	30.3	38.6	41.6	17.7	25.3	25.6	119.6	87.3
North Carolina	52.1	16.5	42.2	33.3	48.4	18.9	24.7	30.7	121.2	93.9

Both teams are well rated/ They both shoot at a great rate and both play good solid defense.  The Tar Heels are a bit better on the boards, but the Zags stifle more of their opponents shooting.  It will be a close game tomorrow night, but I have the Zags pulling it out in the end.  Teh program gives them a 2 poitn advantage, and a 59.5% chance of winning.

NCAA Final 4 Win Rates and Championship Predictions

We're set for the Final 4, and as the charts earlier this week showed we're expecting a UNC-Gonzaga matchup.  The total model gives the chances for each team to win the title below

 

Overwhelmingly the program thinks its the Zags year.  Almost 46% of the simulations have them winning the title, compared to rough;y 25% and 23% for their foes from the other side of the bracket.  The Gamecocks actually have a much beter tchance than I would have expected, coming in at about 8%.  

NBA Power Rankings March 29th

The NBA regular season is about to come to a close, and we've got a bit of drama on going into the playoffs.  The Warriors who had been presumed to have flat lined after the Durant injury have surged back up to nearly top the West both in season long projections and since the trade deadline.  The gap though between Golden State and Houston though as been narrowed quite a bit, and might actually lead to a real series.  At the bottom of the West the Nuggets took a step back, while the Blazers look to secure a playoff spot after a great week, and a fairly easy stretch down the end. 

In the East, the Raptors and Celtics have both taken advantage of a Cavs team that looks beat and tired.  This of course doesn't mean the Cavs aren't still the likely favorite in the East, but without any real defensive presence in the middle they're going to have to get creative to defend their title. 

NCAA Final 4 charting

We've come to the Final Four, and its certainly not the group we had been expecting.  Gonzaga and North Carolina most folks could have seen entering this realm, but Oregon was a long shot especially after losing Chris Boucher in the PAC12 tournament.  Broucher was the rim protector the Ducks needed, recording a 12% block rate.  Even more surprising though is the Gamecocks of South Carolina.  This is a team that ranks 299th by Ken Pomeroy's ratings for effective field goal percentage, and commits a ton of fouls (45.3 rate of Free throws attempted to field goals attempted).  Their lock down defense though forced Baylor to go 14-43 from two point range in this tournament.

Gonzaga vs South Carolina

Gonzaga Wins by 7
Gonzaga Wins 78% of matchups

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	DoReb%	dFTRate	ORtg	DRtg
Gonzaga	57.3	16	30.3	38.6	41.6	17.7	25.3	25.6	119.6	87.3
South Carolina	47.1	18.6	34	39.9	45.5	24.5	31.3	46.3	107.5	88.8

While South Carolina has lived by their ability to frustrate shooters, Gonzaga has been able to do the same but also can also light up a scoreboard.   South Carolina has run on great defense and some timely scoring, but its unlikely to hold on here.

North Carolina vs Oregon

North Carolina Wins by1
North Carolina Wins 51% of matchups

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	DoReb%	dFTRate	ORtg	DRtg
North Carolina	52.1	16.5	42.2	33.3	48.4	18.9	24.7	30.7	121.2	93.9
Oregon	55.8	17.1	32.9	34.9	46.6	19.8	29.9	26.2	118.8	94.8

 This game should be a tight one.  Oregon is a bit more efficient in their shooting (on both ends), but UNC is a bit more efficient on a per possession basis.  Its a toss up, but I do think the Tar Heels can get it done, since they should be better on the boards without Boucher there and allow Kennedy Meeks inside to really do some damage.

Corellian Conflict Campaign Thoughts

So, we were able to conclude our Corellian Conflict Campaign with the Imperials striking forth a solid victory, winning the last four matches to get it after winning just three in the first eight.  It was a tough fought campaign, and was a whole lot of fun.  My group and I are really hoping for another campaign setting in this next year for the game, since it was such a different style of play.  Going to 500 points as well allowed a lot of flexibility in fleet building, and really let the Interdictor shine as a ship.  The home rules we came up with I think all worked well, and I really enjoyed the thematic hyperspace rules.

Our group never really found any issue with timing (besides my third round game with my friend who sat his MC80 Liberty at speed 0 until Turn 4 to avoid engagement).  We still stuck in our typical roughly two and a half hour time frame for casual play.  I honestly think I could see this becoming a much more popular format for tournaments without having to change the length to a great degree.

As to actual game play, things were a little mixed.  Diplomats were basically useless in our four person game (2v2).  It helped to keep a few of the high cost  systems out of hand but it didn't make a huge difference. Skilled spacers as well was just a little disappointing because of its lack of use. However the spy net was awesome. My campaign partner used it to great affect when he defended Corellia by baiting some really bad deployment from his opponent and then shifting out of it. I cannot say how great spy nets are. The repair yards likely helped keep the least experienced member of our campaign in it, because he lost several ships every game. They are probably the most important areas to control.

We did find the base assault missions to be brutal. Fighter wing is a huge boost especially to rebel bomber fleets, as grabbing either 3 A wings and a Z95 go help fight in or 3 more Xwing squads to do some extra bombing work as well almost turned the game against me when I was attacking Sabehering. Planetary Ion Cannons was beastly. The regular objective is tough, but with Intel in the base defense version you can routinely get a four blue dice attack almost every turn.

The only thing we found that really didn't work though was the money system scaling.  With three players per side, the money seems like it would be a little tight each turn.  With just two though, after a couple of conservative rounds I had my fleet to 500 points and was starting to rake in extras.   It just didn't ave the tense feeling I was reading about in some other people's games. 

Elite 8 Charts- Part 1

Fr the first par of our Elite 8 games we have a pair of great matchups.  The nation's best team consistently through the regular season and into the tournament has been Gonzaga.  They're taking on this year's Cinderella Xavier, a team that has slain a very good Florida State squad and then capitalized on some Arizona mistakes to take them out.  This could be a tough matchup because Xavier draws ore fouls and is a bit better on the offensive glass.  The program doesnt like their chances, but this likely will be a battle

Gonzaga vs Xavier

Gonzaga Wins by7

Gonzaga Wins 79% of matchups

Team	EFg%	Tov%	FTRate	OReb%	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Gonzaga	57.3	16	30.3	38.6	41.6	17.7	25.3	25.6	119.6	87.3
Xavier	52.2	18.6	34.9	41.5	51.5	17.7	25	33.6	116	99.1

KU has been the team that leaves you worrying at halftime, and then by 5 minutes left in the second half is up by 15 and pulling away.  Against Oregon though a slow start could bury them.  

Kansas vs Oregon

Kansas Wins by1

Kansas Wins 55% of matchups

Team	EFg%	Tov%	FTRate	OReb%	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Kansas	56.3	17.8	34.1	36.2	47.7	18.5	29.7	30.7	121.8	94.9
Oregon	55.8	17.1	32.9	34.9	46.6	19.8	29.9	26.2	118.8	94.8