NFL Combine: Running backs edition

Its draft season in the NFL, and everyone here in less than a week will be gathered in Chicago to see the next crop of potential stars.  Two of the top players hoping to hear their names called on Thursday will be Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley.  Both players dominated their competition throughout their collegiate careers.  However, this competition was different for each player, as were the offensive schemes they played in.  One of the most level tools draft evaluators have is the NFL combine.  The question most folks have though is how valuable is combine data for projecting future success.

In 2008 FootballOutsiders published their work on running back statistics and the NFL combine.  Their original findings indicated that a back's 40 time was the most likely indicator for success.  This lead to the development of their Speed Score Metric, which accounts for a player's size in relation to their 40 time.  Speed Score has had some success in unearthing later and mid round players, it only accounts for about 20% of the variability of running back statistics. 

I decided to re-run the correlations for all the players that have attended the combine from 2008-2013, see if there was any update.  What I ended up with is in the tables (in the read further section to keep this clean).  The comparison ran twice, once pairwise and once list wise.  Excluding options pairwise gives a result that I think is a little too limited, since may combine participants will not do every test, and that can skew some of the results (Players like Anthony Alridge, who was never going to be a running back in the traditional mold for example).  So, with a list wise exclusion we end up with some new results.  First, Speed Score continues to be a decent indicator for being able to identify potential large contributors in the draft.  Its correlation score of .3 was the highest amongst the other metrics for average rushing yards per season.  It also shared a .342 score for total offensive touches.  Pure 40 times were no longer as solid of an indicator of rushing yards, trailing the 3 cone drill and being in line with the broad jump (one an indicator of good agility, the other pure lower body power).  The three cone was also the second highest score for total offensive touches, with the 40 showing third there.

What does it all mean?  Basically the NFL combine is what most people think it is: not a great indicator of potential success.  But, it is pretty useful in identifying players that have the athletic ability to make it in the NFL.  Of the players that scored at least 100 on their speed score, 80% went on to have more than a single NFL touch.  Players that failed to had only 60% contribute at some point.

NBA Playoffs: Raptors vs Wizards

Checking in on the NBA playoffs, the program so far is holding strong. The Warriors and Cavs have really taken care of business, while most other series that were supposed to be tighter have been (I'll wait for that game to get through both games beofre I pass my judgment on why the Blazer). The only one so far that I've been shocked by is the Raptors and Wizards. Simulations that I'd run had the Raptors with a 64% home win chance in each game (I won't update the simulations inputs until after both sets of home games), so finding themselves down 0-2 had only a roughly 13% chance of happening.

What's been the difference maker? In part, its that the Raptors aren't getting to the line as often as they normally did during the regular season. Theyre drawing a free throw attempt on only 18% of their field goals, down about 7% from the regular season.  This has meant leaving around 15 points a game off the scoreboard. This inability to draw fouls has also hurt their overall effective field goal percentage. They also have struggled to hit long shots, as the Wizards have done a good job of protecting the perimeter.  During the season, the Raptors made 35% of htier three point attempts.  The Wizards have forced this down to just 27% (which is somethign to watch, since during the season the Wizards allowed a 35% three point make percentage).

The true kicker though has been on the offensive glass. The Raptors this season were an average rebounding team cleaning up about 73% of opponents misses. This series though has been rough, as in the first game they allowed 19 of the 60 misses to get back as second chance opportunities, as well as 10 of 35 in the next game.  All of these things together has pushed the Raptors into a corner, one of which they can still come back from, but its going to be much tougher going forward.

NBA 1st Round Charts and Series Predictions

Much like the NCAA Tournament charts, these NBA charts will help give a nice visual of each teams strengths and how they stack up.  I'm going to include the typical chance of winning a home game, and the series prediction as well. 

Atlanta vs Brooklyn

 Hawks Win Chance at Home: 77.9%

Nets Win Chance at Home: 34.3%

Hawks win: 89% of the time

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Atlanta Hawks	52.7	13.5	20.1	21.4	49.2	14.9	18.5	73.4	108.9	103.1	93.9
Brooklyn Nets	49.1	13	20	23.9	50.6	12.9	18.5	73.7	104.4	107.4	92.7

Boston vs Cleveland

 Celtics Win Chance at Home: 43%

Cavs Win Chance at Home: 70%

Cavs Win series: 78.9% of the time

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Boston Celtics	48.9	12.5	17.6	24.7	49.4	13.7	20.8	75	104.7	104.5	95.8
Cleveland Cavaliers	52	13.4	21.6	26.8	50.2	12.6	17.7	74.7	111.1	106.3	92.3

Chicago vs Milwaukee

 Bulls Win Chance at Home: 65.3%

Bucks Win Chance at Home: 50.1%

Bulls Win series: 64.1% of the time

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Chicago Bulls	48.9	12.9	23.8	27	47.3	11.3	18.2	74.4	107.5	104.3	92.8
Milwaukee Bucks	49.9	15.5	19.5	25.4	48.7	15.9	22.1	73.3	102.7	102.2	94.1

Dallas vs Houston

 Mavs Win Chance at Home: 55.6%

Rockets Win Chance at Home: 58.8%

Rockets Win series: 55.6% of the time

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Dallas Mavericks	51.5	11.9	19.7	23.6	50.3	14.7	20.4	72.2	109.5	106.4	95.2
Houston Rockets	51.2	15	22.3	26.8	48.6	14.6	20.8	72.9	107	103.4	96.5

Golden State vs New Orleans

 Warriors Win Chance at Home: 79.6%

Pelicans Win Chance at Home: 31.9%

Warriors Win series: 91.2% of the time

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Golden State Warriors	54	13.1	18.4	24.1	47	14.3	21.7	74.5	111.6	101.4	98.3
New Orleans Pelicans	50.1	12.5	19.8	27.1	49.6	11.7	19.5	75.1	108.2	107.3	91.4

Los Angeles vs San Antonio

 Clippers Win Chance at Home: 58.5%

Spurs Win Chance at Home: 56.2%

Clippers Win series: 50.1% of the time

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Los Angeles Clippers	53.3	11.6	21.5	22.8	49.3	13.2	23.1	75.7	112.4	105.5	94.7
San Antonio Spurs	51.7	13.1	20	23.4	48.4	13.3	19	77.3	108.5	102	93.8

Memphis vs Portland

 Grizzlies Win Chance at Home: 54.6%

Blazers Win Chance at Home: 60.1%

Blazers Win series: 58.4% of the time

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Memphis Grizzlies	48.9	12.6	21.4	24.7	49.2	14.5	18.3	75.3	105.7	102.2	92
Portland Trail Blazers	50.8	12.6	18	24.2	47.6	11.3	18.2	76.2	108.2	103.7	94.2

Toronto vs Washington

 Raptors Win Chance at Home: 64.1%

Wizards Win Chance at Home: 50.6%

Raptors Win series: 62.5% of the time

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Toronto Raptors	50.8	12	23.2	25.6	50.6	13.4	20.8	73.3	111	107.7	92.8
Washington Wizards	49.9	14	19.2	24.9	48.1	12.9	21	77.3	103.7	103	93.7

To recap, we have the Hawks, Cavs, Bulls and Raptors all comfortably advancing in the East, whereas out West the Warriors should cruise, but everyone else might be in line for a 6 or 7 game death struggle.

Los Links: April 16th

2025, the date by which we'll find aliens : I've always believed that we'd find Alien life.  But for the most part its pretty terrifying, because its all too likely those Aliens would be far superior to us technologically, and we;ve seen for the most part how thats worked here on earth.

Ultra fast aluminum batteries : This is one of the most exciting things I've seen in terms of battery technology.  Super fast recharge times, nearly indestructible, and with orders of magnitude greater charging cycles.  

GPS without satellites  Those boys at DARPA.  What will they think of next?
 
Quantum teleportation on a single chipQuantum computing is getting closer by the day. 

The Tommy John Epidemic

I came across a pair of ESPN articles the other day, both relating to the current "epidemic" of Tommy John surgeries.  Its interesting, because one posted last year I believe has the answer for why we're seeing more and more pitchers opt for this rout.  Matt Harvey wrote What we missed about Tommy John surgery, in which he details some new findings about the true success rate of the surgery and some potential reasons why we're seeing more players go under the knife.  On that front, I actually think  Jayson Starks' Tommy John Epidemic article hits the nail on the head.  He discusses the fact that shoulder issues just a couple of season ago were the reason most pitchers spent time on the DL.  However, the surgery payoff for those injuries has been pretty low.  The oft discussed number though for fixing UCL injuries is 80%, so it makes sense more players would risk the surgery when the odds are that good of returning.  Harvey does point out though that rate of players returning for 1 game is 80%, but those returning for 10 or more is just 67%.  I think what we're seeing is the sort of revolution though that we've seen in the NFL in regards to ACL injuries.  In the mid 90s an ACL tear was career ending.  Today there is a 96% recovery rate.

The most interesting part though from Harvey's piece is the interviews with youth coaches and parents, an astoundingly large percentage who felt preemptive surgery was a good idea.  That the surgery would somehow bring an uptick in velocity is beyond me.  Harvey shows for the most part velocity drops a little (or is at best not significantly worse).  This mindset that this injury is going to happen, and so you might as well do the surgery I think is putting pitchers at risk going forward.  At the youth levels guys should not be throwing curves, they should instead be working on correct pitching mechanics and strengthening the major muscles.  If this is a sign of things to come, its going to cause a talent drop in baseball, as we've seen largely in the NBA.

The last battle

“We've got radar contact!  Three Bogeys dead ahead.” The call came over the comm link, snapping the pilot of the TIE interceptor back to reality.  He had been drifting through a patrol of a far off grid on the edge of the empire, looking for rebel raiders.  He had pulled enough of these routine patrols that he didn’t need to focus on piloting the ship; it was just second nature now, avoiding minor debris and running scans.  He could easily let his mind wander to thoughts of life after this tour of duty, back to the core worlds and a nice retirement to spend with all his back pay from the empire.

Championship 2015

So we come to the final game of the season.  The program wraps a pretty successful season, going at about 70% in terms of outright wins, and about 60% against the spread.  It needs some tweaks for the power conferences playing against mid majors, but otherwise I'm pretty happy with its performance.  The tournament certainly needs some tweaking, but that's more accounting for wide variability. 

Duke vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Wisconsin by 1

Wisconsin has a 54% chance to win

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.7	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.7	94.26

Final 4 Charts,Data,Win%

Almost there.  Its been a pretty solid tournament for the program, and an overall very good season.  We'll see if it can get back on track with picking the Finals teams after getting beaten up in the Elite 8.  I again think here the program has picked a winner in each game.  The program has underestimated Michigan State all tounrament though, so it might be closer than it thinks.  I do think Kentucky gets past the Badgers in better fashion than 4 points.  Good offenses going cold in the tournament is far more devastating than a team giving up points on defense. 

Duke vs Michigan St.

Expected Outcome: Duke by 6

Duke has a 76.5% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07

Kentucky vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 4

Kentucky has a 67% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.26