College Football Playoff Win Chances

Running through all the playoff predictions, the program is liking the national pundits thoughts on Alabama running away with things again this year.  Its giving them a 64% chance to advance against Washington, and and an overall chance of wining the title at 48%.  The divergence seems to be with Ohio State and Clemson.  The program has not loved the Tigers at all this year, but it gives them just a 25.8% chance to beat the Buckeyes, and basically no chance to get past Alabama or Washington in the title game.  The odds of them winning it all this year are at just 5%, by far the lowest shot of any of the other contenders.  I really don't believe that, since the Tigers have a pretty solid Havoc Rate of 21.3%, just barely trailing the Crimson Tide.  I also believe in Deshaun Watson moreso than JT Barrett, who has struggled mightily this year with accuracy issues. Id give Clemson closer to a 40% chance of winning just from other numbers and the ol' eye test.  As the

NFL Predictions Week 17

The final week of the NFL season has plenty of action to determine seeding in the AFC (despite us knowing all the teams) and in the NFC the Redskins and Buccaneers are both still hoping to get in.  The program currently puts in the Lions as NFC Nrth Champs and the Redskins get in past the Packers.

NBA Power Rankings December 29th

With the Holidays, I got a little off schedule for getting these power rankibgs out.  In part though, its also because I was finishing setting up the prediction engine so it will be starting to do some weekly predictions on games, or a simple text output for daily games.

Strategic: Worth the hype?

In the coming release of fighters, one of the most hyped new Keywords is Strategic.  This ability allows the squadron with Strategic to pick an objective token within range one, and move that token to another space still within range 1.  This ability to will effectively allow a player to move a token just shy of distance 3 on the map.  With Corellian Conflict adding so many new objectives, this ability could be exceedingly powerful.  There are currently 2 Yellow Objectives that use Objective Tokens, and 3 Blue that use them.  This number is going to expand by 1 red, 2 blue and 3 yellow objectives will use moveable tokens (I’m not counting Nav Hazards, since you remove those tokens at the end of the round anyways).  This ability to manipulate the battlefield for your own use could pay huge dividends, especially since the two ships that will have it also have the Relay keyword (Relay 2 for the Lambda Shuttle, Relay 1 for the VCX-100).  It could mean an ever extending Jamming Barrier to help protect a vulnerable flank , or keeping a targeting beacon at a good distance away from your capital ships. 

With so many potential uses, are we going to see ubiquitous use of these two transports?  It’s possible, but the point cost for each squad is set at the fairly steep 15.  Neither has any inherent defense tokens, and will likely be a prime target for enemy squads to take down early to prevent such shenanigans.  It can also be highly situational.  Depending on initial set up, all the Tokens might be either out of distance that you can get to, or are already placed to your maximum benefit.  I’m also quite fearful of an opponent seeing that I have a couple of strategic squads and deciding they’re better off taking another objective that has no tokens to play with.  This could be especially bad for the VCX since its Relay 1 is handy, but not super useful for getting squad activations and its 3 blue dice is pretty average at its price point.  The Lambda is in a  slightly better position with Relay 2 to be able to get a couple of escorts into the fight if need be, and its 2 black anti squad dice are a bit better really since these are not the squads you want going after uniques with  scatter. 

Overall I don’t think Strategic will be the huge game changer some folks are thinking it will be, simply because you can’t guarantee objectives that use it will get picked and even then you might be able to only swing a couple of tokens in a given game with a couple of the Strategic squads in your list.  It will however give a chance for some real fun, especially in a list designed to take advantage of a very fluid battlefield.

 

NFL Week 16 Predictions

It looks to be a good week for Home Teams in the NFL this weekend.  The Broncos need a win on the Road in KC to keep any playoff hopes alive, but luckily they also need the Dolphins to stumble on the road in Buffalo.  I'll be interested to see if the Texans can get Tom Savage to produce again, but I doubt it overall.

NBA Power Rankings Dec 20th

A collective sigh of relief this week from NBA fans as a new CBA has been set out to ensure play will continue and we won't end up with lockouts and missed games any time soon.  A lot of rules changed that will help parity in the league, and will likely mean the end of the "Super Teams" (Thank God!).

This week in the power rankings the top continues to remain unchurned, as the top 7 teams remain the same and only two teams moved out of the top 10.  The Grizzlies are the team that fell the furthest in the Top 10, dropping 5 spots to number 14 overall.  They went 1-3 over the week, with the last two losses stemming from some major shooting issues.  Against the Jazz they posted an embarrassingly low 31.2% eFG%, as Marc Gasol went 4-22 from the field.  Taking their spot, the Milwaukee Bucks have played some pretty stifling defense this season.  They've posted the third best Opponent eFG%, and held the Bulls to just 65 points last Friday.

2016 Bowl Projections

Bowl season is such a  fantastic time in college football.  The games are fun for the players, and they feature teams that normally don't get any chance to play one another.  It also leads to outcomes that are severely out of line with season numbers.  Teams lose coaches, players aren't up for games, and being in a very strange locale just messes with some teams.  Even so, there's always a baseline for teams, and its always fun to predict what'll happen.

NFL Week 15 Predictions

The program has not been performing as well as it should be the last few weeks, and Ive been trying to figure out why.  No numbers are really standing out now to say why some teams are under performing their predictions, or some teams vastly over-performing theirs.  I like a lot of the picks this week, but giving Denver a nearly 60% chance to win at home I think is a bit much, especially if Brandon Marshall is hampered still.  I also don't see the Vikings rolling the Colts, nor the Giants able to hold off a very good Detroit passing attack.

NBA Power Rankings December 13th

The Warriors maintain their rank atop the NBA this week, in large part thanks to a blow out victory of the former number two team, the LA Clippers.  The rankings amongst the top teams have started to solidify a bit with not much churn going on.  At the bottom though we still see a lot of movement, with teams like the Knicks and Wizards basically swapping places at moving six spots apiece. 

Imperial Assault list thoughts

Playing several games this weekend of Imperial Assault has me pretty well convinced my standby RGC list is starting to get past its prime.  I played against a friend who was running a full unique Rebel list with   .   We played on a General Sorin map, where we needed to control the two terminals to gain victory points.  We could turn off the teminals by controlling the control room.  I made a mistake by not going directly to the control room and flipping off the terminals before my buddy could score a ton of VPs from it.  But that’s not the reason why I’m thinking I need to rethink the list a bit (and really, its re-thinking RGC).  The amount of figures now with some sort of Pierce ability has continued to grow in each expansion, and the Rebels now have access to 15 figure groups that have Pierce, Scum have 9, and the Imperials have 12.  Pierce is critically damaging to Imperial units though, as they mostly depend on Black Dice as their chosen defense cube.  That leaves little in the way of blocking surge abilities, and the pierce values now can really break through those defense dice rolls.  This was clearly demonstrated as my Royal Guard Champ melted in one turn of an Obi-Wan and Leia attack in which the Pierce from Obi gutted my three block roll.  It was then further tied in as Davith obliterated a storm trooper who had also rolled a full 3 blocks, and went on to wipe out another one that had a two block roll.  The Imperial faction luckily has a deployment card that deals with this exactly in Zillo Technique.  It counters Pierce in two ways, either by directly reducing Pierce value or by discarding command cards.  It looks like it’s going to be the backbone of most Imperial builds going forward.

With this in mind, planning for the release of Jabba’s Realm has me looking at a few builds.

Troopers (15/15/40)
=================
[1] Temporary Alliance
[9] Elite Wing Guard
[9] Elite Stormtrooper
[9] Elite Stormtrooper
[7] Captain Terro
[2] Imperial Officer
[1] Zillo Technique
[2] Imperial Officer

-------------------

[3] Grenadier
[3] New Orders
[2] Cavalry Charge
[2] Reinforcements
[2] Reinforcements
[0] Take Initiative
[0] Urgency
[0] Planning
[0] Rally
[0] Fleet Footed
[0] Element of Surprise
[0] Celebration
[1] Rank and File
[1] Hit and Run
[1] Roar

This variant finds a home for the sadly miscast Wing Guards.  The elite version wants to be sitting next to their trooper brethren, but the Keep the Peace ability needs them next to non-troopers.  Well, by conscripting them into your Imperial force they can find a home helping groups of Stormies deal back some damage while also getting themselves some re-rolls.  Captain Terro is super intriguing, and I think is going to be a lot of fun to play.  He has enough hit points to weather being focused on in one of the narrow hallways on the current tournament maps, and his Mounted ability with an officer nearby can get him to where he can Flamethrower that group of Jedi right away.

The above list has a lot of other variants that could be swapped in for the Wing Guard, like an eProbe Droid, rJet Troopers with targeting computer or a pair of eProbe Droids.

Blaise Probes (15/15/40)
======================
[6] Agent Blaise
[9] Elite Stormtrooper
[9] Elite Stormtrooper
[5] Elite Probe Droid
[2] Imperial Officer
[2] Imperial Officer
[1] Zillo Technique
[1] Cross Training
[5] Elite Probe Droid

-------------------

[3] Grenadier
[3] New Orders
[2] Comm Disruption
[2] Reinforcements
[2] Reinforcements
[1] Collect Intel
[1] Collect Intel
[1] Data Theft
[0] Disorient
[0] Element of Surprise
[0] Espionage Mastery
[0] Rally
[0] Planning
[0] Urgency
[0] Take Initiative

This is another list that I think has a lot of flexibility for accomplishing tasks and area control, along with enough hitting power that you can kill some of the tougher as well as getting your troopers hidden to make sure you get the surges you need.

The new era that we’re entering with high pierce values and many more melee options should actually play well into the Imperial’s strengths, as long as they’re packing Zillo technique to help mitigate the damage.  I’m excited to see the changes coming with the release of Jabba’s realm, and to see if some of the next maps to come into the tournament rotation will favor some more open space so Dewback Riders can really run wild.

NFL Predictions Week 14

NBA Power Rankings Dec 6th 2016

Another week of good NBA basketball is behind us, and now we've seen another big shift in the rankings for a pair of teams, and a lot of slight churning for the teams at the top and bottom.

The Warriors and Clippers both continue to play at a very high level, while the Cavs struggled until getting a win against the Raptors yesterday.  The Lakers are this teams big dropper, falling eight spots to end up near the bottom feeders.  Missing D'Angelo Russell is hurting them, as they are turning the ball over on 14% of their offensive posessions, rankng 26th in the league.  Even worse though, is their ability to guard opposing shooters, who are hitting a league best 53.3% effective field goal percentage against the Lakers.  The Bucks are the big riser, jumping nine spots up, who did theirs by posting a defensive efg% of just 48.3  Giannis Antetokounmpo is leading the charge with 1.4 defensive win shares, allowing a shooting percentage of just 44.1

NCAA Football Week 14

Going to do a few things different this week since we have so many Conference Championships.  I'll still have all the win percentages, but I want to look at the title games a little more in depth.

Pac-12: Colorado vs Washington

My CU Buffs have had, as Bill Connelly has pointed out a dream season.  The defense has been dominating, ranking 6th in efficiency in his stats,  along with ranking 7th in finishing drives, allowing just 3.44 points per maroon zone trip.  They'll  likely have to be near perfect against a Washington team that ranks second in efficiency, and is averaging 7.4 yards per play on offense.  Jake Browning was an early dark horse Heisman favorite, and he's continued that kind of play all season.  Completing 65% of his passes, along with averaging 9.6 yards per pass would likely have him in NYC as a finalist.  The Buffs are built though to match this strength, with a secondary that has allowed QBs to complete just 48.9% of passes, defensing 64 of them this year.  On offense the Buffs are going to depend on Sefo Lifau to come through again, and continue to be the solid runner and home run passing threat he has morphed into this season.  The Huskies secondary has not been as prolific at breaking up passes, but they give up few explosive plays with just 16 plays of more than 25 yards through the air all season.

SEC: Florida vs Alabama

This game really does not have a whole lot to say about it.  The Gators are a terrific defensive team, ranking 7th and 9th in Passign S/P+ and Rushing S/P+ respectively.  Four players have at least 50 tackles on this swarming defense, and they have an 18.2% havoc rate.  This all likely won't matter though, because the Alabama defense is better, and the Gators offense is a train wreck.  They average just 5.3 yards per play this season, posting just a 46% success rate on standard downs.  That is going to get the defense worn out, as Alabama has a defense to match the Gators, and an offense that is just so much better.

ACC: Clemson vs Virginia Tech

The Tigers have had a bit of a down season for what they had been expecting.  They haven't been bad, being able to score at least 30 points in nine games this season.  But in six games htis season theyve won by just a single score.  Deshaun Watson has not been as dominating as he was last year, but he's still an elite player, averaging 7.2 yards per play.  His turnovers cost the team in the game against Pitt, and nearly cost them the game against Louisville.  The Hokies might be able to take advantage of that, with an aggressive secondary that has 52 pass break ups and 12 picks on the year.  The real key though will be if Justin Fuentes offense can establish some consistency with the run (94th in S/P+) against a clemson front that has 104 tackles for loss.  If they cant, it will allow the Tigers to tee off on the passing game which might make an offense that isn't very explosive to begin with.

Big 12: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State

While not a true Title Game, Bedlam this year will determine the Big 12 champion.  The 'Pokes had been an afterthought following a tough luck loss to Central Michigan, but dominating performances against West Virginia, Pittsburgh and TCU have them playing a very meaningful game in early December.  Mason RUdolph has continued to grow as a player this year, being able to complete 64% of passes for 8 yards per attempt.  The passing game drives what they do, being able to post a 46% success rate on passing plays, driving a 50.3% success rate on standard downs.  This might not be enough though to keep up with a Sooners team that ranks third in efficiency. The run game with Mixon and Perine has a 50.2% success rate, with better than six yards per carry. 

B1G: Wisconsin vs Penn State

 A surprise matchup here with Penn State going from dead in the water to possible playoff contender in just a few weeks.  Saquon Barkley is an explosive back with 36 runs of at least 10 yards and 16 of them have been for more than 20.  The Nittany Lions though are not very good in the run game the rest of the time.  They are almost dead last in stuff rate, and post a successful down just 41.5% of the time.  It won't get better against a very tough Wisconsin front, that has allowed just 3.4 yards per attempt this year.  This game is likely going to be a defensive struggle, with the Badgers offense averging just 5.3 yards play and the passing game averaging just 7.5 per play. 

AAC: Navy vs Temple

The Navy offense the last several weeks has been a monster, gaining 501, 593, and 600 yards.  They went 23/32 on third downs in that time, and against SMU averaged over 10 yards per carry.  Its good for them though, because the defense had not been there in that span.  They aloowed over 8 yards per against East Carolina and Tulsa, while posting just three tackles for loss.  The Owls have not been as prolific on offense this seaosn, but theyve still averaged better than 6 yards per play and a defense that posts a 20% havoc rate.  This is lead by Haason Reddick, a 230 pound Senior that has 21.5 tackles for loss, with 9.5 sacks.

MWC: San Diego State vs Wyoming

Outside of Colorado, Wyoming might be this season's biggest surprise.  The Cowboys have a shot to upset the Aztecs largely thanks to an explosive passing game, with 32 plays of 25 yards or more and a better than 51% completion rate in the redzone.  The run defense though has struggled this year, and Donnel Pumphrey will make them pay.  He has 53 runs of more than 10 yards, and the offensive line is allowing a stuff on just 17% of their carries. 

CUSA: Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech

The Hilltoppers offense continues to be prolific, but the defense this year has been quietly excellent as well.  They rank 27th overall in Defensive S/P+, while ranking 34th in havoc rate.  Theyre giving up just 5 yards per play, and theyve defensed 59 passes this season.  The Bulldogs offense will test them though, coming in averaging 7.7 yards per play.  Ryan Higgins is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt, but is oming off a very rough game against Southern Miss where he threw 3 picks and didnt throw a touchdown since the first week of the season.

MAC: Ohio vs Western Michigan

Western Michigan is likely in line to be the Group of 5 representative in the New Years 6 bowls.  PJ Fleck has turned a team that was a mess into a powerful passing attack lead by Zach Terrell.  The senior is completing almost 72% of his passes, and has 30 touchdowns to just a single interception.  His favorite target is Corey Davis, a 6'3 senior that is averaging over 17 yards per catch, with 50 of his 83 catches gaining a first down.  The Bobcats are unlikely going to be able to keep up, with a success rate that ranks 124th in the nation. 

NFL Week 13 Predictions

A bit of a disappointing week for the program, mostly from a spread stand point.  The Dolphins struggled to put away the 49ers, the Pats were close against the Jets, and the Eagles seem to have lost their luster. This week we have a lot of home teams who should be able to pull out victories, while Denver should get back on track against the Jags.

Star Wars Armada Corellian Conflict New Objectives!

Getting ready to travel with all the dogs and a pregnant wife following a birthday dinner/all day having folks over really eats up spare time. So, I hadn’t gotten a chance to really examine the new objectives Fantasy Flight spoiled with Corellian Conflict.  The fine folks over at the Concentrate Firepower blog have done a great job I think breaking down all of them, and I agree with a lot of their analysis.  I won’t break down each new objective, but go into a few spots of things I really like, and some areas where I do disagree a bit.

I’ll start off by saying I am a little disappointed so many of these objectives are so heavily tilted towards the second player.  I thought the core objectives were very well balanced in that second player would get a good boost but the first player would get something as well.  I’ve always hated the need to have a large bid in any game.  Bidding to ensure you’ve got first player in a DeMSU list is one thing.  Needing to bid high to make sure you aren’t constantly facing Planetary Ion Cannons or losing a huge amount of points to the other player I think limits builds quite a bit. On the other hand, I am excited that most of the objectives do help encourage folks to actually get into the middle and fight, rather than skirt the edges and play for a small win.

I do think the new objectives will add a big boost for the Interdictor though.  Grav Well projector is going to be huge for helping balance some of the objectives that stress positioning (Like Solar Corona and Navigational Hazards, as well as Blockade Run to either slow down or funnel those objective ships to you).  The Grav shift Reroute will also be nice to move possibly several obstacles to keep your opponent from getting to some objectives or in position to use Targeting Beacons effectively. 

Carrier fleets I think are going to love the Barrier objective, especially Rhymerball fleets.  It will allow you to keep your carriers in a safer spot until you’re ready to jump across and finish off ships after your bombers have softened them up for a turn or two.  It will also greatly help VSDs, in that you can place a large shield basically on one for their flanks.

A lot of folks have really disparaged the Fighter Ambush objective, and I agree to a point.  I think if you’re running an Imperial based bomber list it’s not going to be your choice.  You’ll lose too much deployment flexibility, and not gain enough of an advantage since TIE Bombers are fast anyways .  However, if you’re running YT-2400 spam this objective could potentially allow you to really put the hurt on a ship that is a bit isolated or deny an area right off the bat.  I can also see it being useful for B-Wings to get them further out to begin. 

NBA Power Rankings November 29th

This week's NBA power rankings is starting to see a little bit of clustering as teams are really starting to show who they are.  The Warriors, Clippers, Cavs and SPurs are all much better than the rest of the league, while the Nets, Sixers and Magic are already in very deep holes if theyre looking to do more than watch the ping pong balls fall this summer.

The Hawks are one of this week's biggest drops, as they have gone just 1-7 following a 9-2 start.  The Hawks are a very curious case, having been one of the best defenses to start the season, ranking first in DRtg (100.4) and ranking sixth in Effective Field Goal Percentage Allowed (48.4%).  Their offense though has been pretty atrocious, posting a 23rd ranked ORtg, largely due to their inability to create free throws on offense (.194 free throws/ field goal attempted).  If they can get the offensive stroke they had to start the season, when they scored fewer than 100 points just twice, they could certainly be a dark horse in the Eastern Conference.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!  This week the NFL has a couple of great games on Turkey day, with the Lions and Vikings being a toss up as well as the Cowboys and Redskins squaring off for domination in the NFC East.

NBA Power Rankings November 22nd

The Clippers easily remain atop our NBA power rankings, but the Warriors have significantly closed the gap in terms of efficiency and overall play.  The team making the biggest leap though are the Grizzlies, moving up 10 spots.  They did it by completely dominating some lesser talent, and also by taking down the aforementioned Clippers at home by a decent margin.  They are overplaying their Pythagorean wins by a couple of games though, so we'll see how things hold up.

NCAA Football Week 13 Predictions

Sorry for the quick and late post, preparing to travel home for the Thanksgiving holiday.  This week has some excellent tilts in Rivalry week, including all sorts of intrigue in the PAC-12 (Washington-Wazzu, Utah-CU), if Charlie Strong can somehow rescue his job, and if Boise State will still have a shot at the Mountain West title game to keep their G5 bowl hopes alive.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

This weekend really doesn't have a lot of crazy games, with home teams loking to clean up.  The Bengals and Bills should be a fight, and the Thursday night game should be an interesting battle to see if Carolina's D can step up and stop Drew Brees.

NBA Power Rankings November 15th

So we see a few changes in our NBA Rankings this week as things start to stabilize a bit.  The Rockets are the big risers, going 1-1 against the Spurs and really taking it to the Sixers.  The Nuggets sadly fall 7 spots due to an inability to close games and Emmanuel Mudiay's Struggles.

College Football Week 12 Predictions

AFter the chaos of last week, this week feels like it will be a let down in that department.  Only a few matchups really fall into the toss up category by the program, and several of the more high profile matchups should go to the favorites.  Wazzu-Colorado and West Virginia-Oklahom have huge implication for conference titles, and should feature some very entertaining games.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Sorry folks, with some internet issues on Wednesday I couldn't get this put up.  Luckily, I did have the Ravens handily beating the poor hapless Browns.

NBA Power Rankings

Ah, the NBA season is also upon us, and yes, I do have a program that will run through and predict NBA games.  However, it takes awhile for the data to smooth itself out because NBA teams have a lot of variance on a night to night basis.  But, its always fun to have power rankings.


A few oddities if you're looking at the NBA standings.  The first, is the Cavs coming in at just number 7.  The issue has been they've played some pretty poor competition so far, with half their games going against teams under .500, and they have not yet blown any of them out.  The Magic are another one, but there's is more that the good teams they've played, they have lost by 12 to Miami, 26 to Detroit, and 32 to Chicago on Monday. 

College Football Week 11 Win Predictions

College football rolls on, and November continues to mock teams and steal their playoff hopes.  Nebraska's chances are likely shot after getting completely crushed by Ohio State, Florida undone by Arkansas trouncing them, Texas A&M losing focus and Trevor Knight in their loss to Mississippi State.

The Program fared decently this week, with those few upsets being the only real shocks to it, along with being pretty off with several of the midweek games.  That will likely require a change to the system for next year, to account for these midweek games being far more swingy. 

Can Colorado get to the Playoff?

With the first release of the College Football Playoff Rankings last night, Colorado finds itself for the first time truly in the national conversation for power teams in well over a decade.  Colorado ranked 15th, the second PAC-12 team behind Washington at 5, and just behind former Big 12 opponent Oklahoma.  The question now in Buff nation is can they somehow move up the 11 necessary spots to make it into those final weeks of college football?  It will take some help from some of the teams ahead of them, but Colorado does present a good case for making the playoff if things break their way.

First and foremost, CU cannot lose again.  They must win their last 4 regular season conference games, as well as winning the PAC-12 title outright. Luckily, the program currently gives CU about a 60% chance to win out in the regular season (89% vs UCLA, 92% @ Arizona, 80% against Wazzu, 90% aginst Utah).  They also do get lucky in that the PAC-12 title game should likely give them a chance to beat one of the teams ranked ahead of them, the Washington Huskies.  This game is much closer, with the program giving CU just a 50% chance t win on a neutral field currently.  However, in a toss up style game CU winning would assuredly move them ahead of the Huskies.  It should be reiterated, that any slip up in these 5 games would knock CU out.  Also, if Wazzu is able to win the Apple Cup here in a few weeks, that would likely hurt CU's chances because Washington would fall before CU could play them, and Wazzu is ranked too far back to help give te committee a possible Top 4 tam on CU's resume.

Now we get to the spots where CU needs help from everyone ahead of them:

1 Alabama: The Crimson Tide have a pair of very tough games remaining, against a suddenly resurgent LSU and Auburn.  The program though gives them and 80% chance to win this weekend, and an 85% chance to knock off Auburn in the Iron Bowl.  Both teams are ahead of CU, so its actually better if Alabama wins out.  They also will likely face another team ahead of the Buffs in Florida in the SEC championship game, which would give the Gators a second loss and putting them within striking distance of Colorado at that point. 

2 Clemson:Clemson has one game that they should be concerned with against Pitt, but they have a 78% chance of walking away at home with a win against the Panthers.  Buffs fans should likely also be rooting for the Tigers to win out, since it would be so tough for CU to catch them.  That would also lock Louisville out of the ACC Championship, boosting Colorado's chances again.  In that ACC title game, CU has to hope that either Virginia Tech or North Carolina (Program believes currently VT is the nod, with it going there 57% of the time) gets rocked to keep them from catching up to CU.

3 Michigan: If the Buffs miss the playoffs they will be wondering what could have been had Sefo not been injured in this game that just got away.  The Wolverines are also favored to get to their conference title game, but CU has to hope they get past Ohio State (65% chance), because that gives the Buckeyes a second loss, eliminating them from the playoffs as well.  In the title game, CU is again a Big Blue backer, either handing Wisconsin their third loss, or Nebraska a likely third loss as well.

4 Texas A&M: The Aggies are the surprise factor here, because they're likely only going to have 1 loss at the end of the year unless Ole Miss or LSU can upset them.  CU really could use the Aggies to drop one of those games (preferably the Ole Miss game to keep handing out losses to teams ahead of them).  At the very worst, CU has to have the Aggies not win the SEC West and get in ahead of Alabama.

5 Washington: Even at a single loss, CU would jump Washington if they win the Pac-12 Championship head to head.  The Huskies need to win out though to keep their status, and the Pac-12's prestige up.

6 Ohio State: As mentioned above, a loss to Michigan ends their hopes with 2 losses.  They'll likely beat the Huskers this weekend to give them a second loss, and stay in the 6th spot until playing Michigan.  Go Blue

7 Louisville: Along with A&M, the Cardinals could be the biggest spoiler for CU's jump into the playoff.  They are almost guaranteed to end up as a 1 loss team, and have run over all of their opponents.  Lamar Jackson is the Heisman winner in all likelihood, so it would be tough for the committee to lave them out with just a single loss.  They probably won't lose though against a lackluster end of season schedule, unless a truly slumping Houston can catch fire (only a 16% chance of that happening).

8 Wisconsin: The Badgers will likely end up with three losses, and despite some impressive wins, CU should be able to leap them with their own impressive slat of games and wins against at least 3 top 25 teams.

9 Auburn: Much like Wiscy, the Tigers will have 3 losses at least by the end of the season, and wont have appeared in a conference title game.

10 Nebraska: The Huskers could drop the game this weekend against Ohio State, and even if they made the Big Ten title game, would be the under dog there.  That would hand them 4 losses, and a spot outside of the playoffs.

11 Florida: The Gators find themselves with a pair of tough road games to close out the season, traveling to make up a game with LSU and then ending in Tallahassee Florida against Florida State.  They have less than a 40% chance to win both games, which still likely puts them into the SEC title game, where Alabama would be heavily favored.  That's at least a pair of losses to match the Buffs.

12 Penn State: The Nittany Lions should be able to win out with a very disappointing Michigan State to end the season as their toughest remaining opponent.  However, they already have a pair of losses, and wont be able to catch the Wolverines if they win out to reach the title game.

13 LSU: A resurgent Tigers have likely played themselves out of the playoffs with that tough loss to Auburn this season that cost Les Miles his job.  Again, the pair of losses and the fact that they are currently just a couple spots ahead of CU leans towards CU jumping them at the end if CU wins the title.

14 Oklahoma: The Sooners like LSU played poorly early on and its cost them a shot at a title.  Even if they were to win out, CU will likely jump them because of Houston's collapse, and the Big 12 eating itself.  THey also face a still dangerous Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State to close out the season.

The biggest threats then to CU are Louisville and Texas A&M.  Almost everyone else is likely to lose a game between now and conference championship weekend, and those that won't will likely drop to one of the top 3 teams in the playoff that weeknd.  Louisville and Texas A&M do not have clear paths to their title games, but both have looked nearly flawless this season sans one loss, and are likely to end that way. Would a potential CU Pac-12 title be enough to put them in with a loss more?  I think so, because the committee really does lean heavily on Conference Titles to differentiate teams in the end.

Regardless of the Buffs getting into the Playoff, Coach Mac has done a wonderful job getting the ship righted in Boulder, turning a derelict program into a true contender that is recruiting well and looks to have the pieces to compete for the next several years.  The Rise is Real in Boulder, and it might be reaching stratospheric heights this year if a few things break right for CU. 

NFL Week 9 Win Predictions

A good week last week for picking NFL games.  A few of them got a bit more out of hand than I had anticipated (Looking at New England, just demolishing the Bills), but had the right gist for a lot of the games this past week.

College Football Week 10 Win Predictions

Ah, November is here and with it is #MACtion.  I'll have to stay ahead a little bit better going forward to make sure I keep these posting before the games start.  Its a big week as well with the College Football Playoff rankings being released tonight.  There are a lot of interesting possibilities for some teams, and we might just sneak in a two loss team with Boise State having lost this last weekend.

Corellian Conflict Squadron Thoughts

I'm extremely excited for the Corellian Conflict coming out for the Armada game.  For those who don't know, its adding campaign style play to Armada.  You and up to five other companions will fight battles at different strategic spots in the Star Wars universe.  It is also adding though a whole mess of new squadrons that have some great twists on the original squadron.  I've got some early thoughts on each of the so far spoiled squadrons and what its going to mean for the Tournament Meta prior to the release of the next wave of ships.

A very nice overview of what we've got from Armada forum member Captain Weather

Imperials:

Black Squadron-TIE Fighter Squadron

The suicide squad has arrived!  The Black Squadron is here to take the heat of of someone, most likely for just one exchange of fire.  For a point more than your typical TIE you'll forgo Swarm to get Counter 1 and Escort. I'm not really certain where Black Squadron will show up though.  Fighters with Escort you're really always hoping to trade for your more valuable squads to do their work.  With just 3 hull, and most rebel fighters pumping at least four attack dice, Black Squadrom might sheer off at best a pair of attacks. They might see some play hanging out as a secondary escort gighter for the Imperial killer Aces (Howl, Mauler, Vader, Dengar and Soontir) to keep opponents from just jumping over Vader to pick off one of the others in the ball, but Most folks would probably rather just have an extra Tie Advanced that might soak up 3 or more attacks.

Valen Rudor-TIE Fighter Squadron

This guy just has the biggest grin on his face, and for good reason.  He is going to simply murder generic fighters.  The 3 black anti squadron dice average 2.25 damage per attack (bumped up to 2.67 with Swarm to give a re-roll), and he has extreme staying power with a Brace and a Scatter as defense dice.  He will most likely be paired with Howlrunner to give him either a bit of extra damage, or a chance at an accuracy to put the hurt on named squadrons.  And at just 13 points, he will be right at home in a big group of TIE fighters, or TIE bombers with Flight Controllers to have some real staying power and provide a lot of plink damage to counteract all the braces on the rebel side.  I have also seen some talk that Vale accompanying Instigator will be worth examining to drive right into enemy squadrons and deliver pure punishement.  Honestly Valen might be the best Imperial pilot to get added.

Gamma Squadron-TIE Bomber

A nice add in bomber.  For only a point you lose Heavy and add Grit.  Likely going to be added to most bomber centric builds as a bomber that still move after your Intel ships have been plucked off. Also makes a nice addition for  just tossing in a bomber squadron since it wont require deciated Intel.

Captain Jonus- TIE Bomber Squadron

Ah, a bomber unique now that will give an opportunity to use someone besides Major Rhymer in bomber centric lists.  His ability to aid ships by allowing you to swap a die for an accuracy in attacks is going to really help diversify the Imperial carrier force as well, with the ability for longer strikng Gladiator-II to see some play.  Ive also always felt you really needed to go whole hog with Rhymer to really utilize his ability.  Jonus though could be a smaller splash of bombers that I remember using much more during Waves 1-2.  I don't think we will see Jonus and Rhymer together though so much, since that's now 32 points for a pair of bombers, and that their abilities really work against each other.

Ciena Rae-TIE Interceptor Squadron

Ciena is a standard TIE Interceptor, with some extra staying power thanks to the fact that all attacks against her are obstructed.  This is very nice against a lot of the currently used capital ships that have just a single AA die, as well as providing her with a pretty good chance of being able to use her Brace since any accuracies are likely going to her Scatter.  She;s a little pricey, but she and Valen Rudor could make a nice pair as well since she's likely to survive an encounter or two.  She also could see time with Bomber builds as an Anti-Squad roll and then survive the AA later on to help add damage with her single blue die.

Saber Squadron-TIE Interceptor Squadron

I saved Saber for the last Imperial Squad because I think it will be the best Imperial squadron added, and it might be right next to Rhymer in terms of usage going forward.  For 12 points, you lose the Counter ability but you gain possibly the most game changing ability we will see in this box and next wave: Snipe.  The ability to move in late and stay un-engaged to possibly eliminate Jan Ors is going to be huge going forward.  You maintain Swarm, so you can get something heavier in there to engage and get your re-roll as well to improve those odds.  Several folks on the Armada forums don't seem to think that you will be able to use Howlrunner to add a die to the attack, but I think that will get FAQ'd to Work.  It might also work with Flight Coordinators, giving a possibly 6 dice attack that ignores Counter and Escort is going to be awesome.  It is also the only Imperial with the ability it looks like into the next wave.

Rebels

Rogue Sqadron-X-Wing Squadron

Rogue Squadron removes Escort from the X WIng, and gives it Rogue for a point more than the standard.  Its going to be a popular pick for a lot of folks, especially in a Riekan aces style of list where you might not need so much Escort to keep some key guys alive. Its going to be a nice addition, but its not game changing really for a lot of Rebel players that are running Jan Ors-Xwing groups or YT-2400s.

Biggs Darklighter-X-Wing Squadron

Biggs comes in at just 19 points, and is going to be an interesting play.  His damage shuffle ability is going to make Rebel squads that much harder to kill, especially when you already consider that he will likely fly next to Jan Ors and a few other X Wings, or possibly in with some YT-1300s to take advantage of their large store of hull points.  I like Biggs a lot at his price point, and think he;s going to be a solid contributor.

Ten Numb-B-Wing Squadron

Ten is going to be one of the squadrons I feel like Im going to need to play a lot with to get a good feeling for.  He trades a blue for a black Anti-Squad, and by spending a blue critical die he will do 1 splash damage to opponent's squads.  B-Wings though at speed 2 are not really so great for engaging squadrons, but he will certainly be a deterrence to Rhymer balls and Ors balls making their way towards a capital ship.

Shara Bey-A-Wing Squadron

Shara is going to be someone that you have to shoot at some point, but you're going to hope AA fire can bring her down. Being able to count the criticals on to a counter attack makes her a pretty attractive squad to really run into the middle of dog fights and dare someone to try to killer her.  She's competing with Tycho Celchu, but I think her damage spike and the proliferation of Intel based ships is going to see her at the table very often


So overall, what are the thoughts?  I think of the so far spoiled fighters (still awaiting Generic A wings, B-Wings, Y-Wings, generic and Named, and the TIE Advanced updates) the Rebels got some very interesting tools, but that the Imperial Squadrons have given them far more firepower and flexibility. 

NFL Week 8 WIn Predictions

College Football Week 9 WIn Percentages

The program has continued to pick winners at a good steady rate of about 76% per week.  There are always a few tosses and turns, but I'm quite happy with the progress this season. 

College Football Biggest Risers and Fallers

So, the college football season is now two thirds of the way done.  Some teams we knew would be good (Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson), and some we knew would be bad (Purdue, Idaho, Texas State).  Its the teams in this list that have given us something really to talk about, the teams that we didn't see coming, or that we didn't see falling to the depths they have.

Risers:

Troy Trojans 

Projected Rank: 115                  Current Rank: 33           

The Trojans have had a down few seasons, not breaking .500 since 2010 (they did finish 6-6 in 2013, in between two 3-9 seasons).  This year though they've already hit 6 wins, and should be favored in at least 3 of their remaining matchups. What has happened to give them such a jolt up?  The defense has really stepped up, allowing opponents to score a touchdown less per game, and also allowing 10% fewer possible yards per drive.  The offense has also become much more efficient, as junior tailback Jordan Churns has taken the starters role, and has averaged better than 5 yards per carry this season.  His back up, Josh Anderson has also averaged over 5 yards per carry in limited carries, but that's far better than last years back up provided.                              

Western Michigan

Projected Rank: 91st             Current Rank: 12

PJ Fleck is likely going to be looking for a Power 5 type job after the work he has put in at Western.  The Broncos probably should not be on this list.  Last year they were an 8-5 team, and they returned a lot of their depth, including Senior QB Zach Terrel, who is demolishing MAC opposition to the tune of 9.5 yards per attempt and 20 TDs to just one Int.  He's been solid on third downs as well, converting 43% of his throws to first downs.  I'm not certain WMU is good enough to keep up with some of the nation's best, but if they can go undefeated we might just get a chance to see.  

Toledo

Projected Rank: 82nd            Current Rank: 30th

The Rockets were expected to take a step back largely due to attrition.  The program was going to be losing a lot of its starting production, and a lot of Juniors and sophomores littered the 2 deep.  The offense though has not missed a beat, gaining over 56%of their available yards on offense.  The ey factor though might be a defense that is allowing opponents to gain only 35% of their available ayrds, 24th in the nation.  John Stepec and Teyvon Hester have been huge in this, each producing 4 sacks and combining for 16 tackles for loss.  

Fallers:

Georgia

Projected Rank: 4th           Current Rank: 71st

What a complete whiff for the program in predicting Georgia.  A team it saw as being a playoff contender now sits at 4-3, and has to still play Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech.  The Bulldogs pass defense has been just atrocious.  Opponents are posting a 135.2 passer rating, due to completing over 61% of their passes for nearly 8 yards per attempt.  Their own passing game has been pretty brutal as well, with Freshman Nick Eason hitting under 55% of his passes.  Nick Chubb has also not produced so well in the running game. A year after averaging over 8 yards per carry, he's down to just 5 yards per attempt this year, and has found the endzone only 5 times.

Marshall

Projected Rank: 44th        Current Rank: 110th

The Thundering Herd was seen as being a solid mid major team this year, but their defense has been a major let down.  They've surrendered 53% of the total yards possible to teams, ranking 124th in the nation.  They rank 98th in runs over 10 yards allowed, with opponents already having 46 carries ht that mark so far.  They've also been bad on third downs, allowing opponents to convert on 41% of their opportunities.  

The Michigan State

Projected Rank: 30th   Current Rank: 90th

The Spartans are also having troubles for their typically sound defense.  Opponents are converting nearly half of their 3rd down attempts, and they're averaging 4.8 points per Maroon Zone trip, 81st in the country.  This though likely wouldn't be enough to sink Sparty to being one of the worst rated teams in the nation, if not for an offense that ranks 10th in efficiency.  That is killing both their own field position and is setting the defense up for failure in their own endeavors.  MSU has rushed for less than 100 yards on three occasions already, and going forward they will not be favored in a single match up,

Los Links Oct 23rd

Undiscovered Planet causing Solar Tilt
An interesting phenomenon in our solar system.  The long predicted Planet X thats currently beyond our scope of observation is starting to show up in some other ways.

 Time Crystals, the impossible is possible
This is a huge step towards quantum computing if the experiment's results are able to be duplicated.

 Drug resistant superbugs being reversed by your stomach
I'm seeing more and more studies of inventive new ways to combat these drug resistant bacteria.  This methodology could be very good, since it uses a bodies own biome to go after these bacteria
 

Ancient Greeks in China?
Fitting that after my trip to the area, that there is new speculation of the Greeks influencing Chinese culture and life.

NFL Week 7 Win Predictions

College Football Week 8 Win Predictions

Well, I am now finally back from my honey moon, and back into the swing of it (mostly).  The college football landscape has had a few complete upsets, but for the most part things have stayed the same with our previously thought power blue bloods running the show.  Pre-season predictions phased themselves out of predictions in week 6 for the program, and I'll have a post up this weekend on which teams have exceeded its expectations and which ones failed to do so.

Here's this weeks win percentages, which as I post this Miami is failing a bit with their secondary looking just dreadful against a rejuvenated Hokies passing attack

NCAA Week 4 Predictions

A pretty solid week for the program, going about 52% against the spread, while also picking at 74% straight up.  This is one of the last weeks for any preseason prediction working its way into the program, so we're starting to see things for how they are this year versus what we thought would happen.  Interestingly, the Thursday night ACC game should be a good test for it, since Georgia Tech is a slight home favorite to it.  One of the biggest games of the week is the Vols-Gators game, where the program is very certain the Volunteers will walk out with a W.

NCAA Week 3 Win Percentages

So, I did not notice until today that last week I posted the chance for teams to cover the spread instead of their win percentages.  I'll try to remember to re-run those numbers and edit the last post to add it.  Here thoug are this week;s win percentages.

Games of note this week should include Mizzou getting a visit from Georgia, and whether or not the Bulldogs can get back on track and if Mizzou;s offense is halfway decent.  Oklahoma State-Pitt should be an excellent game, and I think the Pokes come out really firing after last week's debacle with Central Michigan.  The best game though will definitley be the Buckeyes visiting the Sooners, and if OU can get their playoff hopes back on track.

Also of course will be CU-Michigan, following a week of great twitter sparring and CU posting the best depth chart ever. 

College Football Power Rankings very rough cut

So, I normally don;t publish my rankings for about 4 weeks.  There is just too much volatility and too little data.  But I feel like there's no real harm in having some fun and looking at where its ranked everyone so far.  The program liked USC before the season, but I'm not exactly certain as to why its been so high up on them this season.  I guess it discounts a lot of the Bama game, since they're still a 15 point favorite in a rematch. 

Alabama

Southern California

Florida State

Tennessee

UCLA

Baylor

Louisiana State

Ohio State

Louisville

Clemson

Washington

Auburn

Florida

Georgia Tech

Oklahoma

Michigan

Miami(FL)

Georgia

Oklahoma State

Mississippi State

Texas

Texas A&M

Nebraska

Oregon

Mississippi

Boston College

Wisconsin

Western Kentucky

Missouri

Notre Dame

Brigham Young

South Carolina

Arizona State

North Carolina

Marshall

Pittsburgh

Virginia Tech

West Virginia

Boise State

Vanderbilt

Duke

Texas Christian

Arkansas

Stanford

Colorado

Arizona

Michigan State

Utah

Houston

Cincinnati

Wake Forest

North Carolina State

Iowa

Minnesota

Maryland

Temple

Utah State

Central Florida

Penn State

Texas Tech

Georgia Southern

Washington State

East Carolina

Syracuse

Appalachian State

Kentucky

Rutgers

Northwestern

Toledo

Oregon State

San Diego State

South Florida

Indiana

Memphis

Central Michigan

California

Northern Illinois

Ohio

Middle Tennessee State

Bowling Green State

Kansas State

Kansas

Navy

Illinois

Arkansas State

Rice

Colorado State

Army

Southern Mississippi

Western Michigan

Virginia

Texas State

Purdue

Air Force

San Jose State

Tulsa

Nevada

New Mexico

Fresno State

Tulane

Connecticut

Louisiana Tech

Old Dominion

South Alabama

Troy

Ball State

Southern Methodist

Nevada-Las Vegas

Florida Atlantic

Wyoming

Kent State

Charlotte

Hawaii

Texas-San Antonio

North Texas

Texas-El Paso

Iowa State

Massachusetts

Louisiana-Lafayette

Eastern Michigan

Akron

Idaho

Florida International

Louisiana-Monroe

New Mexico State

Buffalo

Miami(OH)

Georgia State

College Football Week 2

We've got one week down in the college football world, and the program is moving along nicely.  It hit about 79% correctly in the first week, which, considering that several FBS teams lost to FCS schools and others blew big leads, is not too shabby.

Week 2 should feature a bump again, as we see no ranked teams squaring off, although I will definitely be watching to see if Tennessee bounces back after the program put them into the top 10.

College Football Week 1 Predictions

So, with a wedding upcoming and some severe laptop issues I've been very bad about getting up posts and getting data sorted.  In the meantime though, I was able to get my weekly predictions done this week.  I've got every game, with the average Home margin, and each team's win percentage odds listed.

I should have hopefully for this next week some drive data graphically represented.

Los Links July 27th

Bacteria 'Wind Farms' to power your gadgets 
THis all starts getting into some scary futures of bio-engineering, but its also very cool

 Why did the Concorde Fail 
Largely bad airline management, but that's a little simplistic.

  New Brain Map,
 The brain is still an amazingly unexplored area of science, that we're finally getting powerful enough tools to be able to see

  Exo-Planet Habitability
Very excited that we could have a lot more habitable neighbors that could possibly be one day explored and settled

College Football Projected Top 25

So I've returned from the Rockie Mountains from a backpacking trip (which I'll be posting pictures from soon in another post) to finish up my pre season NCAAF ratings.

These ratings are obviously very preliminary, just to give me an idea typically of futures bets and projecting conference winners.  The formula has an r^2 value of .687 to a team's final rankings, which I think its pretty fantastic this far out from the end of the season.  There are a few surprises every year, and this year is no different.

1	Florida State
2	Louisiana State
3	Alabama
4	Georgia
5	Southern California
6	Baylor
7	UCLA
8	Tennessee
9	Oregon
10	Oklahoma
11	Miami(FL)
12	Auburn
13	Clemson
14	Ohio State
15	Oklahoma State
16	Washington
17	Mississippi
18	Louisville
19	Brigham Young
20	Stanford
21	Michigan
22	Mississippi State
23	Texas A&M
24	Pittsburgh
25	Arizona

The first thing that really stands out is Clemson sitting outside of the Top 10.  I believe that they will end up in the Playoff, but the program is concerned about the team without Watson helming the offense, and the senior class was much further behind some of their contemporary schools in terms of recruiting rankings.  The program also is not a big believer in Stanford.  The only knock it seems to have is the returning experience, so I'm expecting them to be much better off than the rankings give them. 

Of teams that I think its mysteriously high on, FSU has to top the list.  The 'Noles though have consistently been a good recruitier, and they return quite a bit of experience.  Im not super comfortable having them number 1, but theres a good chance they can knock off Clemson in the ACC.  As Bill Connely pointed out in his preview, Oregon will be much better if they can find some stable QB. 

Los Links June 25th 2016

Very nice ,  

Physics Cats!, 

The block heard round the world (its on Youtube, but worth a watch), 

Why Islands induce dwarfism

NBA Finals Game 7 Scores

The NBA season has finally reached its pinnacle.  After a playoffs full of blowouts, we get to see one last fight between the Warriors and Cavs take place back in Oakland.  The Warriors are trying to regroup from one of the most disastorous games I think Ive seen from a starting lineup, posting just a 36 O Rtg and a negative 84.6 rating overall.  The killer was as I pointed out the other day, that the so called lineup of death fouls at a prodigous rate, and they had a rate of over 55% for the night in Game 6.  It also did not help that as a team they shot just 38% on three poitn attempts that were open or wide open. 

We will see if the Warriors without Bogut can tamp down on the Cavs ability to get to the rim and score.  42% of their shot attempts were from less than 10 ft out, and they made 63% of them.  If they can go back to the dominance they showed early in the series at that, the Warriors should walk off winners.  The program thinks they'll be able to figure it out, winning a tight 104-99 kind of game.It only gives them a 64% chance to do so though, largely because of the quickly disappearing defense over the last 3 games.

Los Links 6/18/2016

Stripes make you faster 
The natural camouflage of animals is always truly fascinating.  Just that little bit of deception is all thats needed to protect them from becoming a meal.

 Antikythera Mechanism'spurpose discovered,
Ancient societies were much more advanced thn we will ever really give them credit for, at least until the beginning of the collapse of the Empires of Antiquity.

  It plays just for you,
 I need this for around the office when folks start complaining about different applications

  Drink up!
 This is always why I hate when folks proclaim the Science is settled.  It never truly is, especially when it comes to science that is as complicated as the human body is.

NBA Finals Game 6 Scores

The most important cog for the Warriors machine would appear to be Draymond Green and his defensive acumen. The Cavs top three lineups were able to post an average 122 offensive rating while on the floor, helping to annihilate Golden State at Oracle. Green returns though for a trip to Cleveland where his most common lineup has held the Cavs to just a 108 rating. This could be largely why the program gives the Warriors a 68% chance to walk off as champions tonight, winning an average of 107-100.

It will be interesting to see though if missing Andrew Bogut hampers the west coasters. He's been on the court for a majority of the playoffs this year and his rim protection has helped allow a lot of the help defense Golden State likes to play. It should also be interesting since the lineup of death allows nearly every 40% of opponent field goals to add a free throw attempt, as opposed to just 17% with Bogut in the lineup.

NBA Finals Game 5 Scores

The NBA playoffs continue to be excitingly weird.  The Cavs missed almost all of their open shots at home ( and let the Warriors take 28 of their 36 attempts as open beyond the arc) to allow the Warriors to steal game 4 and all but eliminate them. Then the Draymond Green decided to take another nut shot at an opponent and has been suspended for Game 5. This is a pretty unprecedented event, and how exactly Golden State responds will be interesting. Green has averaged just under 40 minutes a game this series, with the top two lineups without him also feature Leandro Barbosa and Mo Speights with significant time.

To build an actual team model without Green is very difficult because of his super high minutes. However, even tamping down the Warriors a bit without him and elevating the Cavs a bit, the program sees the series ending tonight in Oakland. The Cavs have been atrocious away from Cleveland in this series with just an 85.7 Ortg and a Drtg over 115.   I'm not certain it's as certain as the 92% the program gives the dubs but the 103-92 score sounds just about right.

NBA Finals Game 4

So everything this playoffs has been goofy. Over half the games have been decided by double digits.  And I think it is largely a result of the increased 3 point attempts. We'll see how tonight goes but the program thinks the Cavs can tie things up with a 110-105 victory tonight. It should at least be interesting to see if Lebron can continue to frustrate Draymond Green and if Kevin Love is in fact the man holding back the Cavs offense.

NBA Finals Game 3 Scores

The Cavs have found themselves in a hole. Specifically a terrible shooting hole. That has been the difference for a team that had been absolutely lights out prior to this series. While a lot of folks have talked about their 3 point shot drying up, it's been the easy interior stuff that has killed them. During the regular season the Cavs hit 56% of their shots from under 10 ft. So far in this series they're shooting just 48% from that short distance. They are also missing open looks (as defined as a closest defender 4-6 feet away) at a whopping 71% rate. That's been a quarter of their shots that are uncontested and they can't make 1 in 3 of them!

The program is again super on the Cavs returning to normality, especially at home. It gives them an 88% chance to win, and thinks they'll get to 108 points. It still sees the Warriors shooting hot though, scoring 104.

NBA Finals Game 2 Score

Game 1 did not go exactly how the program had thought it would.  The Warriors for the most part were right on target, with the bench helping make up for a pretty mediocre game from the sharp shooting stars.  The Cavs though struggled inside of 10 ft, posting a pretty abysmal 43.5% on those shots.  Kyrie Irving and Lebron James were pretty big culprits on this front, going 3/6 and 6/14 respectively.  If that happens again, they will lose this series in pretty quick fashion.  The team overall will still need to shoot better from beyond the arc, but Kyrie and Lebron especially need to finish.


The program does see a big rebound.  It believes more in Lebron and Kyrie being able to bounce back than the Warriors bench being so spectacular again.  Give the Cavs a 52.7% chance to even things up on the road.

GSW' Wins: 473    CLE' Wins: 527
GSW' Average Score: 104.4354771     CLE' Average Score: 107.4435543

Los Links June 4th 2016

The galaxy might be a bit slimmer than we thought, 
Very interesting work being done on a pretty important cosmological topic.


Rosetta's comet contains the ingredients for life,  
Not really so much as that, but the comet contains some of the basic elements that life might need to come together

Aristotle’s Tomb Found,  
 Pretty cool. 

Efficient hydrogen from Seawater,  
A friend of mine and I were just discussing whether or not a hydrogen economy or a more electric based one would be better (specifally the new Tesla model and its viability.  If hydrogen from desalination is very efficient it could really help more drought plagued California.