Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Super Bowl Predictions and Charts

It's super bowl week!  Our last real NFL game before the long dark time of the offseason.  We get one of the team's that before the season pretty much everyone expected to still be in the hunt at least, with the New England Patriots.  Tom Brady has somehow staved off father time for one more year, and despite the ongoing potential drama, the Pats still were able to roll over opponents by 162 total points.  The 2nd quarter is where they did most of they work, basically doubling up on their opponents then.

The other team up through week 14 was thought to be the easy favorite, but that was before the Eagles lost Carson Wentz to an ACL tear.  The Eagles though have been resilient,  and with Nick Foles leading them have been able to get past every challenge so far.  They also in a coincidence were +162 points this year, but they were much more explosive early in the season.

Can you spot when Carson Wentz went down?  That is what is driving the Eagles trend line down, otherwise they were much better than they have been.  Last week's explosion is a bit closer to what we should be expecting from that team, and it might be what we could see if this is Foles finding a rhythm in the Doug Pederson offense.  The Pats have had a little more up and down, but were more within their 95% confidence interval all season.  Slow and steady, they flipped the field consistently. 



The Pats Defense underwent probably the biggest swing from the start to the end of the year of any team.  There were still a lot of bumps but it solidified by consistent play (8th best by Footballoutsiders) and limiting deep passing plays (11th best DVOA against the pass, 11.6%).  The Eagles defense is based upon pressure,  and shutting down run games.  They gave up just 2.99 adjusted line yards this year, by far the best.


One of the biggest storylines in this games in the QB battle, Nick Foles vs Tom Brady.  It has not been a great year so far for Foles, and he looked very good against the Vikings last week.  But his completion percentage so far is still well below 60%, and he has not hit a ton of big plays.  But, he has keep the interceptions and sacks down to keep the offense on schedule.




Player  Completion Percentage TD% Int% Yards per Attempt Adjusted Yards Per Attempt Yards per Completion Net Yards Per Attempt Adj. Net Yards Per Attempt Sack%
Nick Foles 56.4 5 2 5.3 5.4 9.4 4.65 4.75 4.7
Tom Brady 66.3 5.5 1.4 7.9 8.4 11.9 7.1 7.56 5.7

Overall, I dont think the Eagles have any room for error.  The Jags played one of the best first halves of football they could, and a couple key mistakes let the Pats walk away in that game.  Both teams utilize a lot of tight ends passes and running backs swings, while both have good deep threats.  The Pats will be at a disadvantage though with Gronk still facing some lingering concussion issues, and the fact that Tom has been sacked quite a bit this year.  The Eagles run D though might be a little understaffed in Timmy Jernigan can't get over his illness.  Its going to be a close game I think, but the Pats pull it out with an average margin of 3.2, with a 63% chance to win. 

NCAA Men's Power Rankings January 31st

Just as with last week, I'll have top 25 before the jump and the full list below it.

The program really likes Auburn, and its tough to see why not.  They blew out  LSU and Mizzou this past week, and they're adept at getting to the line and shooting threes.  The Rhode Island Rams took a step back with a pair of tight wins over conference foes that they should really have put away, while Wichita State finds itself back in the top 25.  This weekend is big for the B12, who have Texas Tech and TCU facing off, while Oklahoma looks to get rebalanced against Texas.  

Team Rank
Villanova 1
Virginia 2
Auburn 3
Purdue 4
Duke 5
Ohio St 6
Xavier 7
Michigan St 8
Clemson 9
Kansas 10
Cincinnati 11
Tennessee 12
North Carolina 13
St Mary's CA 14
West Virginia 15
Nevada 16
Arizona 17
Texas Tech 18
Kentucky 19
Rhode Island 20
TCU 21
Oklahoma 22
Wichita St 23
Florida St 24
Butler 25



Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Imperial Assault Legends of the Alliance: A campaign wrap up and review

I have loved Imperial Assault Skirmish since the game was released.  I got another couple guys in my gaming group to buy in, and I've loved every minute of it.  The campaign side has been a different story.  I tried early on to start a campaign with my wife, but she hated it.  I had played as the Imperials, and likely was a bit too aggressive in how I played them.  She refused to play again after one of the missions I deployed a Nexu right on both of her characters and defeated them in a single blow. I have not given campaign much thought since.

This changed when FFG released the Legends of the Alliance App late this past year.  Its a co-op style mode for campaign play, where the App will tell you how to deploy and when to activate enemy groups, but you're in charge of moving them and rolling their dice.  You build the maps and move the figures around, with the app just helping guide whats going on.  Enemy units get some differnt special abilities, and their surge abilities and priorities change as missions go on.  My wife was enthusiastic to try this style of campaign, because she does enjoy playing games with me. 

I'll first review the current campaign without giving spoilers, which I'll leave to after the jump in case folks haven't played yet.  In short, this was a great intro campaign for the system.  The difficulty on Normal seemed to be just right for our two person game, and I'm not certain how a Hard campaign would go with just two figures activating.  There were some missions where there were a lot of Elite deployments out on the map and we struggled to kill them with our heroes (Dialla and Drokkata).  Midway through the app updated to add units from all units in your collection, and I felt the difficulty took a bit of a jump there.  Elite Jets are quite a bit scarier than a standard Elite Officer deployment that the game gave us several times early on.  The missions were fun, and the text only side encounters were short and had enough options to keep us intrigued during these segues.  The only real complaints I have are the item system and the overall campaign length.  To address the length, it was just far too short.  A handful of missions and I felt like I was just getting the hang of playing Drokkata, and the story was left a little bare.  As to the equipment, we just never earned enough cash really to buy the good stuff.  So I felt we were a little underpowered at different points of missions trying to gun down some of the more powerful units.

Overall I think it was a great first effort, and I hope FFG releases several more expanded campaigns shortly so we can keep playing.

******************Spoilers Below********************************

Monday, January 29, 2018

NBA Power Rankings January 29th

The gulf at the top this week is getting bigger between the top 3 and the rest of the league.  The number 4 Celtics trail the Raptors by about 3 points, the same distance the number 10 Blazers trail the Celtics by. They need to get themselves righted following a pretty unimpressive 2-5 record over the last 7 games.  The Thunder have moved themselves up to number 5 after a good strong week, beating the 76ers by double digits and avoiding losses.  However, going forward they're going to have to replace their defensive stalwart Andre Roberson following his horrendous Patellar Tendon injury.  It also wouldn't be a power rankings without talking about how much trouble the Cavs are in.  heir defense is atrocious right now, and the locker room is in full toxic mode. 


Team Rank
Golden State Warriors 1
Houston Rockets 2
Toronto Raptors 3
Boston Celtics 4
Oklahoma City Thunder 5
Minnesota Timberwolves 6
San Antonio Spurs 7
Philadelphia 76ers 8
Washington Wizards 9
Portland Trail Blazers 10
New Orleans Pelicans 11
Indiana Pacers 12
Charlotte Hornets 13
Denver Nuggets 14
Los Angeles Clippers 15
Cleveland Cavaliers 16
Detroit Pistons 17
Milwaukee Bucks 18
Utah Jazz 19
Miami Heat 20
Dallas Mavericks 21
New York Knicks 22
Memphis Grizzlies 23
Los Angeles Lakers 24
Brooklyn Nets 25
Chicago Bulls 26
Orlando Magic 27
Atlanta Hawks 28
Phoenix Suns 29
Sacramento Kings 30

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Armada: Concocting with Wide Area Barrage

One of the best incoming upgrades for Armada is the Ordnance piece, Wide Area Barrage.  For a mere two points, you can deal several points of unblockable damage to a ship or squadron nearby your target.  This is another peice in Wave 7s anti squad buffing, that I think is important for how the game is going to behave going forward.  This is a direct assault on Carrier builds like Gallant Haven and Yavaris that love to keep squadrons nearby them.  It can also work to help kill those pesky support flotillas, since all the damage must be taken to one hull zone.

So what's our maximum damage that can be done?  Natively, its anything with 4 black dice in an arc.  The top maxes out at two, with 3 being possible if you are able to Concentrate Fire in another black die.  The only ship that can do this on its own is the Gladiator 1.  This is certainly not a bad choice, since Demolisher typically rides aboard a Glad 1 and this could be a way to earn more points back from a ship that faces a lot of hate any time it approaches a ship.  In the Max out at two damage natively, the Victory 1,Glad 2, Kuat ISD, MC75 Ordnance Cruiser and both versions of the MC30 can hit 2 damage with their 3 black dice with an arc, and nicely all have access to Ordnance Experts to help make sure to trigger it ( and ensure max damage).  The step down from the 4 black dice to 3 means a roughly 17% damage reduction on average for doing at least 2 damage, but we're talking 99% to 82%.  Its still likely to happen.  I think any one of these ships can take WAB as an option now, and it likely has the added effect of forcing your opponent to spread his fleet a bit more thinly.  THis makes the torpedo boats much more dangerous since they will not be facing multiple rows of fire when they make an attack run.

The Victory 1 and Kuat I do not think will pair super well here.  Both at close range are extreme brawlers, wanting to do huge spike damage.  The Splash damage just is not enough to really make it worthwhile, especially for the Vic 1 that is likely only getting 1 shot at that range with its big front arc.

We can also toss these on board Raider 1s, Torpedo Hammerheads, Assault Peltas, and MC75 Armored Cruiser.  The only ship that I could see reguarly taking this is the MC75, and even then the better option might be Ordnance Pods or External racks.  The Raider and Hammerhead are both just not taky enough to deliver potential multiple rounds of fire, and even with a double arc they are at best adding 2 damage on.  The Assault Pelta is another poor choice for these, since it has no way of re-rolling misses with its lack of weapons team, and its at best adding 1 damage.

Below here is a table for the average damage that each ship will do.  Remember, a decimal that's below .5 means it will trend towards the floor, while greater than will tend to hit the next integer up.

ShipAverage Splash from Best Arc
Raider 10.9
Kuat ISD1.6
Glad 11.9
Glad 21.6
Vic 11.6
MC-301.6
MC-751.6
Torp. HH0.7
Assault Pelta0.4

THis shows that on a one shot attack, you will typically be asking for 1 or 2 damage with a lot of rolls, but the Gladiator 1 dominates the field in consistency with OE re-rolls. 

Having hit the basics, there are some edge cases that could see some play.  Sato Fleets could really like this upgrade for a combination of long range critical effects, and a chance to do a max of 5 splash damage.  Using either MC-30 could allow a Sato player to throw 5 black dice on one attack, dealing 3 splash, and then follow up with the front arc with a CF command to basically guarantee another 2.  That kills Jan Ors, Luke, Biggs, and most other mainstay aces in one fell swoop, as well as piling up the damage on the target ship.  Gladiator 2s I think could also see a slight resurgence, since you can do max damage regularly, and the added Blue die for flacking makes them extremely well suited for killing squads and carriers in a pair of activations.  The MC-75 is also likely one of the best bets for this, since it can pair WAB with one of the either dice adding ordnance upgrades.  External Racks is probably the best pairing, for cost and the fact that if you put expanded launchers on it noone is going to allow you to get the front arc on it.  The mC75 also gives the chance for 5 splash damage in an activation.


Friday, January 26, 2018

NBA Stats Heat Map January 26th

I'll probably do a couple different plots going forward for the NBA before weekend games, but I figured I'd toss out a quick heat map I did up for all of the Normalized Stats for the league.






Team Wins ORtg Drtg Assists_Ratio OREB DREB REB Turnover TrueShooting Pace PIE
Atlanta Hawks -1.47 -0.68 0.73 0.51 0.19 -1.65 -1.09 0.88 -0.38 0.13 -0.90
Orlando Magic -1.47 -0.68 1.13 0.19 -0.74 -1.31 -1.57 -0.02 -0.44 0.95 -1.17
Sacramento Kings -1.32 -1.74 1.58 -0.71 -0.32 -0.75 -1.36 0.18 -1.52 -1.10 -2.13
Dallas Mavericks -1.17 -0.27 0.45 0.35 -2.23 0.87 -1.84 -1.92 -0.22 -1.11 -0.60
Memphis Grizzlies -1.02 -0.74 0.21 -0.62 -0.24 -0.98 -0.88 0.08 -0.60 -1.72 -0.71
Phoenix Suns -1.02 -0.90 1.58 -1.11 0.74 -0.64 -0.13 0.88 -0.87 1.38 -1.60
Brooklyn Nets -0.87 -0.84 0.25 -0.46 -0.19 0.31 -0.13 0.68 -0.65 1.16 -0.83
Chicago Bulls -0.87 -1.21 0.81 0.43 -1.21 1.88 -0.33 -0.82 -1.14 0.29 -1.36
Los Angeles Lakers -0.87 -1.21 -0.36 -0.22 0.74 -0.02 0.42 0.88 -1.09 1.86 -0.67
Charlotte Hornets -0.72 -0.49 -0.48 -1.27 0.15 2.05 1.11 -1.72 -1.14 0.68 -0.02
Utah Jazz -0.57 -0.49 -0.28 -0.54 -1.04 0.71 -0.81 0.18 -0.11 -1.14 -0.10
New York Knicks -0.42 -0.12 0.57 0.19 0.95 -0.41 0.97 0.68 -0.06 -0.43 -0.06
Detroit Pistons -0.27 -0.62 -0.52 -0.14 0.19 0.31 -0.20 -0.42 -0.82 -0.75 -0.60
LA Clippers -0.12 0.38 0.41 -0.62 0.44 -1.37 -0.40 0.48 0.38 0.57 -0.14
Philadelphia 76ers -0.12 -0.27 -1.20 1.08 1.42 0.26 2.00 2.97 0.38 1.66 0.98
Milwaukee Bucks 0.04 0.48 0.73 0.27 -1.30 -0.25 -1.36 -0.52 0.81 -0.80 -0.25
Denver Nuggets 0.19 0.38 0.45 0.35 1.80 0.59 1.65 1.07 0.05 -0.36 0.17
Indiana Pacers 0.34 0.66 0.09 0.02 -0.32 -0.69 -0.33 -1.12 0.43 -0.42 0.40
New Orleans Pelicans 0.34 0.76 0.49 1.65 -0.96 -0.36 -0.33 0.68 1.40 1.02 0.67
Portland Trail Blazers 0.34 -0.21 -0.48 -1.92 0.27 0.48 0.76 -0.32 -0.38 -0.31 0.09
Washington Wizards 0.34 0.19 -0.12 0.19 0.19 -0.75 -0.33 -0.32 0.00 0.09 0.25
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.49 1.26 1.70 0.51 -0.91 -1.03 -1.02 -0.12 1.46 0.07 -0.02
Miami Heat 0.49 -0.74 -0.48 -0.06 -0.96 1.27 0.08 0.78 -0.11 -1.26 -0.10
Oklahoma City Thunder 0.64 0.32 -1.12 -1.11 2.48 0.15 1.59 -0.22 -0.71 -0.66 0.59
Minnesota Timberwolves 1.09 1.60 0.81 0.02 1.21 -0.75 0.21 -1.82 0.54 -0.76 0.86
San Antonio Spurs 1.24 -0.30 -2.09 0.02 0.36 0.93 0.83 -0.22 -0.60 -1.35 1.21
Toronto Raptors 1.24 1.26 -1.16 -0.22 0.36 -0.53 0.35 -1.12 0.75 0.66 1.25
Houston Rockets 1.54 2.10 -0.36 -0.38 0.06 2.11 1.17 -0.12 1.89 0.81 1.06
Boston Celtics 1.69 -0.40 -2.37 -0.14 -0.62 0.31 0.15 -0.22 -0.33 -0.64 0.98
Golden State Warriors 2.29 2.53 -0.96 3.76 -0.53 -0.75 0.83 0.68 3.08 1.52 2.75