NFL Conference Championship Prediction 2020

This weekend we move one step closer to the Super Bowl.  Despite getting a pair matchups that are rematches, both games have teams that few people would have guessed to be here before the season.  The Niners and Titans both have capped seasons that they defied expectations.  The Niners having done so all season, ranking near the top of the program's power rankings from the jump.  The Titans took a bit longer to et going, with the switch to Ryan Tannehill after the their loss to the Broncos.  The Packers, while not being a huge surprise, still were a bit unlikely.  A new head coach and preseason reports of friction with Aaron Rodgers had some thinking they might end up nearer the bottom of the NFC North.  But a Bears collapse and a surprisingly good defense have propelled them back to the title game.  The only team that most prognosticators had here was the Chiefs, and even they had rough patches this season, at the midway point sitting at 5-3. 

Home Team	Home Team Win Chance	Away Team	Away Team Win Chance	Home Margin
Kansas City Chiefs	74.53	Tennessee Titans	25.47	7.9
San Francisco 49ers	76.53	Green Bay Packers	23.47	8.7

The program has both home teams wining handily, but it might not be so simple.  The Chiefs are facing one of the hottest teams in the league, and one that beat them earlier this year.  The Titans were out gained in that matchup 530 yards to 371 yards, but Derrick Henry was able to thrash the 29th DVOA rushing defense for 188 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  The Titans for their part will have to control the lines of scrimmage like they did against Baltimore last weekend, because their pass defense has not been good enough (21st by DVOA), despite facing the 6th most pass attempts and allowing 9th best Passing Yards per game.  However, the Chiefs still possess the most explosive offense in the league, so the Titans are going to have to score.  And they just havent been consistent enough on that end to show they have a real shot to win.

The Niners have one of the most balanced teams in the league this year, with a defense that ranks 2nd in DVOA and and offense that ranks 7th.  It was on display in the last meeting, where the Niners embarrassed the Packers 37-8.  The Packers lost that game while gaining fewer than 200 yards. It doesn't look like they should have a chance in the rematch either, with a defense that teams were able to run on,allowing almsot 5 yards per carry.  The offense will have to shoulder most of the load here, and hopefully keep Rodgers more upright than the last meeting, where he was sacked 5 times.